College Football Picks, Predictions, and Previews: The Way It Oughtta Be

Air Force vs. Boise State 10/16/2021 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

Air Force visits Boise State on 10/16/2021 at 9:00PM.

Air Force and Boise State face off in a regular season matchup. Games are on campuses and crowds are full once again! Air Force sports a record of 5-1 this season. Boise State is 3-3 this season. Enough preamble… Let’s get to the preview…



Air Force Team Defense Preview

Air Force has had 55 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 5.07 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, Air Force are not a team that allows many plays per drive. The defense either gives up big plays quickly or induces a lot of three-and-outs, we shall find out more. Third and long situations are common against this season ‘s defense. This is a defense that forces opponents to commit penalties, have compromised offensive line play, and fail to convert on crunch possessions. Air Force opponents passes the football 54.84% of the time.Air Force tends to face teams that prefer to air it out or opponents wanted to air it out against them.

Air Force is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to create negative yardage plays on the ground. Opponent rushing yards attributed to their offensive line this season comes out to 2.81 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average defense when it comes to how offensive lines control or fail to control them on the ground. When it comes to getting to that second level, running backs are getting stopped. This defense does not allow themselves to be gashed. Long breakout runs against this Defense are far too common. This is a very porous rushing defense that is incapable of preventing a situation where their safeties chase down a running back or quarterback.

Air Force have had made the turnover belt, chain, pads, lunch pail or whatever gimmick they use change hands a lot. This is a Defense that causes pure aggravation. Air Force should have a sign ready for opponents near the Visitor Locker Room that says “Welcome to Hell”, their front seven is deep and they cause a lot of problems. Air Force is better at stopping the run than the pass this season .

Air Force Team Offense Preview

Air Force has had 58 total drives this season and they generate 6.28 plays per drive. When you are among the best at plays per drive, you are certainly a team that aims to wear down the opposition with a high play count or with long, physical grinding drives that eat up a lot of clock. We need to find out more here when it comes to Air Force. Air Force is an average offense as far as staying ahead of the chains, getting into 3rd and Short scenarios, and converting on 3rd and 4th Down. Passing plays are 11.26% of their play calls.They favors running the ball as opposed airing it out.

On first downs, getting ahead of the chains is crucial and running the ball well on first down can get a team there, Air Force has had done a good job avoiding the negative yardage rushing plays. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. Air Force can take credit for 3.1 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average offensive line as far as their ability to set up the running game. When it comes to getting to that second level where linebackers have not crashed down on the line of scrimmage, they are getting stopped with ease. They are capable of busting out a long run, which is really good when the team has the ball in their own territory.

Air Force bullied and controlled defenses this season , defenses are not to dictate what this offense is able to do to them. Opponents should consider a containment strategy. Front sevens are causing an average amount of trouble for the Offense. Air Force is a better passing team than running team this season .

Boise State Team Defense Preview

Boise State has had 75 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 5.56 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive opponents run , but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Boise State has had a generally average defense. Nothing too special about it, but they are capable of rising up when needed. Boise State opponents passes the football 46.52% of the time.Opponents typically have had some form of run/pass balance against them.

Boise State opponents have had struggled with running the ball and the defense crushed the spirits of their opponents with zero or negative yard plays. 4th and Short is not a cake walk, maybe passing on 4th and Short or having some sort of RPO is the way to go because if an Offensive Coordinator thinks that they can just line up and run a Quarterback Sneak or hand it off to a tailback against this season ‘s defense, they are mistaken. Opponent rushing yards attributed to their offensive line this season comes out to 2.99 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average defense when it comes to how offensive lines control or fail to control them on the ground. This is also a team that is allowing running backs and quarterbacks to get to the second-level in an average fashion. They are capable of giving up a long run, which is really demoralizing when the opposing team has the ball deep in their own territory.

This Defense has had average success disrupting the flow of the opposing offense. Getting more granual into the front seven and their ability to cause trouble, they are just average in this regard. Boise State has had shown themselves to be better at stopping the pass than the run this season .

Boise State Team Offense Preview

Boise State has had 74 drives in non-garbage time minutes and they average 5.68 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive they run , but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Boise State is an average offense as far as staying ahead of the chains, getting into 3rd and Short scenarios, and converting on 3rd and 4th Down. Passing plays are 52.86% of their play calls.Boise State passes more than other teams.

Boise State struggles with running the ball, getting zero or negative yard plays is disspiriting and the offensive line is not effectively making a good push. Poor playcalling, pre-snap adjustments or post-snap reads may be responsible and this could fall on the Quarterback, Offensive Coordinator, and Head Coach. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. Boise State can take credit for 2.22 yards per carry. So what does this mean? It means that the offensive line has had been incredibly disappointing in their contribution to the ground game. When it comes to getting to that second level where linebackers have not crashed down on the line of scrimmage, they are getting stopped with ease. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this season ‘s team to bust out big rushing plays.

Defenses have had average success disrupting the flow of the Boise State Offense. Front sevens of opposing defenses are causing a lot of problems. Boise State is a better passing team than running team this season .

The Air Force Roster

The Players to Watch for Air Force

Haaziq Daniels QB 6’1″ 200 Sophomore

Haaziq Daniels put up 494 yards, tossed 2 touchdowns, and he threw 1 interceptions this season. He was considered one of the gunslingers of College Football this season. His average completed pass was 11.5 yards. He was considered one of the most mobile Quarterbacks in the country this season, designed runs and zone read looks are common. His average rush was 5.5 yards.

Brad Roberts RB 5’11” 200 Sophomore

Brad Roberts had 680 rushing yards on 150 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He had 6 rushing touchdowns. He is considered one of the workhorse running backs of College Football returning this season. His average rush was 4.5 yards. His contributions as a receiver this season are not worth mentioning.

Brandon Lewis WR 5’9″ 175 Junior

Brandon Lewis picked up 156 yards through the air. He caught the ball 7 times this season. He reached the end zone 0 times. He was a part of the passing game this season. When he catches a pass, he generates on average 22.3 yards.

Jordan Jackson DT 6’5″ 270 Junior

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Air Force, Jordan Jackson, had 20 tackles this season.Among Defensive Tackles/Nose Tackles, he was clogging the gaps and playing disruptive proving he is one of the best at forcing lost yardage, he had 4 tackles for loss this season.He was among the best at disrupting things up the middle and getting to QBs, he had 4 sacks this season.

Christopher Herrera DL 6’5″ 275 Junior

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Air Force, Christopher Herrera, had 25 tackles this season.Among Defensive Tackles/Nose Tackles, he was clogging the gaps and playing disruptive proving he is one of the best at forcing lost yardage, he had 3 tackles for loss this season.He was a non-factor as far as sacking Quarterbacks was concerned this season.

Corvan Taylor S 6’2″ 205 Junior

The leading tackler among Defensive Backs for Air Force, Corvan Taylor, had 27 tackles this season.He forced 0 tackles for loss this season.He was among the best at disrupting things up the middle and getting to QBs, he had 1.0 sacks this season.

Michael Mack II CB 6’1″ 185 Freshman

The leading tackler among Cornerbacks for Air Force, Michael Mack II, had 8 tackles this season.He forced 0 tackles for loss this season.He had 0.0 pick-offs this season.

The Boise State Roster

The Players to Watch for Boise State

Hank Bachmeier QB 6’1″ 205 Junior

Hank Bachmeier put up 1692 yards, tossed 11 touchdowns, and he threw 4 interceptions. He threw deep and medium passes to receivers more often than not. His average completed pass was 7.9 yards. The zone read is a common part of the offense and mobility is used as part of the offense, but not necessarily the focus of the offense. His average rush was -0.4 yards.

Cyrus Habibi-Likio RB 6’1″ 215 Junior

Cyrus Habibi-Likio had 181 rushing yards on 54 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He had 2 rushing touchdowns. He was relied upon to carry the ball quite a bit this season. His average rush was 3.4 yards. He is a consistent option in the passing game considering that he is a running back. When he catches a pass, he generates on average 3.4 yards.

Khalil Shakir WR 6’0″ 188 Senior

Khalil Shakir picked up 584 yards through the air. He caught the ball 36 times this season. He reached the end zone 4 times. He is a go-to in the passing game. When he catches a pass, he generates on average 16.2 yards.

Scott Matlock DT 6’4″ 296 Junior

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Boise State, Scott Matlock, had 24 tackles this season.Among Defensive Tackles/Nose Tackles, he was clogging the gaps and playing disruptive proving he is one of the best at forcing lost yardage, he had 4 tackles for loss this season.He was among the best at disrupting things up the middle and getting to QBs, he had 4 sacks this season.

Demitri Washington DE 6’3″ 280 Junior

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Boise State, Demitri Washington, had 17 tackles this season.He was not a factor as far as tackles for loss was concerned this season.He was a non-factor as far as sacking Quarterbacks was concerned this season.

JL Skinner S 6’4″ 216 Junior

The leading tackler among Defensive Backs for Boise State, JL Skinner, had 53 tackles this season.Among Defensive Backs, he was very active and disruptive in the backfield, he had 2 tackles for loss this season.He had 0.0 sacks this season.

Markel Reed CB 6’0″ 185 Junior

The leading tackler among Cornerbacks for Boise State, Markel Reed, had 21 tackles this season.Among Cornerbacks, he was very active and disruptive in the backfield, he had 2 tackles for loss this season.He had 0.0 pick-offs this season.

Air Force vs. Boise State Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: Air Force 23 Boise State 30

Spread Pick: Boise State -4 -111 BetOnline Get Up to a Grand in Your Hand Now!
Moneyline Pick: Boise State -180 BetOnline
Over Pick: Over 51 -110 Bovada Get $250 by signing up now.