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Appalachian State vs. Texas State 11/7/2020 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

The Appalachian State visits Texas State on 11/7/2020 at 3:00PM.

Appalachian State and Texas State face off in an important game for both teams as every game in this shortened season with limited or no fans in attendance means more. Appalachian State has a record of 4-1 this season. Texas State is 1-7 this season. Both have players to meet and know.

Appalachian State Team Defense Preview

Appalachian State has had 50 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 5.68 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive opponents run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Opponents face third and long situations a lot against this defense. This is a defense that forces opponents to commit penalties, have compromised offensive line play, and fail to convert on crunch possessions. Passing plays make up 49.65% of their opponents’ play calls.Opponents typically have some form of run/pass balance against them.

Appalachian State is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to create negative yardage plays on the ground. How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? Appalachian State can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 2.86 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average defense when it comes to how offensive lines control or fail to control them on the ground. This is also a team that is allowing running backs and quarterbacks to get to the second-level in an average fashion. Opponents have shown a relatively average level of explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play against them.

Appalachian State has made the turnover belt, chain, pads, lunch pail or whatever gimmick they use change hands a lot. This is a Defense that causes pure aggravation. Getting more granual into the front seven and their ability to cause trouble, they are just average in this regard. Appalachian State has shown themselves to be better at stopping the pass than the run this season.

Appalachian State Team Offense Preview

Appalachian State has had 50 drives in non-garbage time minutes and they average 6.2 plays per drive. When you are among the best at plays per drive, you are certainly a team that aims to wear down the opposition with a high play count or with long, physical grinding drives that eat up a lot of clock. We need to find out more here when it comes to Appalachian State. Any defense is in for a challenge with Appalachian State, given their ability to accrue more than 5 yards on 1st Downs and their ability to convert on 3rd and 4th Downs. They put a lot of pressure on opposing defenses.Passing plays make up 38.06% of their play calls.They favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

On first downs, getting ahead of the chains is crucial and running the ball well on first down can get a team there, Appalachian State has done a good job avoiding the negative yardage rushing plays. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. Appalachian State can take credit for 3.38 yards per carry. This is an elite offensive line when it comes to generating a push for the running game. They know how to create creases for running backs to break loose. Playing 7 in a box may not be enough for opposing defenses, this is a great O-Line. The offensive line and running back corps deserve a lot of credit for gashing defenses with their running game like the way they have this season. They have an explosive running game and they are capable of breaking big yardage runs on First and Second Down. This puts a lot of pressure on Linebackers and Safeties.

Appalachian State has bullied and controlled defenses this season, defenses have not been able to dictate what this offense is able to do to them. Opponents should consider a containment strategy. There has been a relatively good job done by this Offensive Line to prevent opposing front sevens from causing problems consistently. Appalachian State has shown themselves to be a better running team than passing team this season.

Texas State Team Defense Preview

Texas State has had 100 total defensive drives this season and they yield 5.79 plays per drive. Texas State lets opponents run a lot of plays per drive and in the Fourth Quarter, this team could be gassed. Texas State has shown an inability to stop defenses from converting on 4th Downs and they let opponents get into manageable 3rd Down situations where an RPO may be especially deadly. Passing plays make up 51.47% of their opponents’ play calls.Opponents typically have some form of run/pass balance against them.

Texas State is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to create negative yardage plays on the ground. How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? Texas State can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 2.89 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average defense when it comes to how offensive lines control or fail to control them on the ground. This is also a team that is allowing running backs and quarterbacks to get to the second-level in an average fashion. Opponents have shown a relatively average level of explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play against them.

This is not a disruptive Defense and they get pushed over way too easily. Perhaps they are too vanilla with playcalling. This front seven is simply unable to make an impact, something must change or else the problems will repeat. Texas State is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

Texas State Team Offense Preview

Texas State has had 97 drives in non-garbage time minutes and they average 5.01 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, Texas State is not a team that runs many plays per drive. The offense is either prone to faltering and struggles to notch first downs or extremely explosive, we will need to find out a bit more to get answers. Struggles to get ahead of the chains and convert on third and fourth down are common, the offense can stagnate. Texas State passes the football 51.85% of the time.Texas State tends to pass more than other teams.

Texas State struggles with running the ball, getting zero or negative yard plays is disspiriting and the offensive line is not effectively making a good push. Poor playcalling, pre-snap adjustments or post-snap reads may be responsible and this could fall on the Quarterback, Offensive Coordinator, and Head Coach. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 2.69 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average offensive line as far as their ability to set up the running game. This is also a team that is getting to the second-level in an average fashion. Offensive line and running backs are average in this regard. They feature a relatively average explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play, but it is not something to count on from them.

Defenses have been able to impose their will on the Texas State Offense this season. Front sevens of opposing defenses are causing a lot of problems. Texas State has shown themselves to be a better running team than passing team this season.

The Appalachian State Roster

The Players to Watch for Appalachian State

Zac Thomas QB 6-1 210

This season, Zac Thomas has put up 971 yards and 8 touchdowns. He has thrown 4 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 150.0thus far this season. Zac Thomas has thrown 4 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Zac Thomas has 238.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 94.51 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 37.0 times this season, which puts him in the 83.92 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 2.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Daetrich Harrington RB 6-0 190

This season, Daetrich Harrington has 482 rushing yards on 88 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 7 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Daetrich Harrington picked up 15 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 2 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Thomas Hennigan WR 6-1 210

This season, Thomas Hennigan picked up 313 yards. He caught the ball 16 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.

George Blackstock DL 6-1 270

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Appalachian State, George Blackstock has 12 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 2 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 74.03 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 0 times this season, which put him in the 33.46 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Kaiden Smith DB 6-1 200

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Appalachian State, Kaiden Smith had 26 tackles which puts him in the 87.55 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 1 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 79.41 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Kaiden Smith as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 40.81 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

The Texas State Roster

The Players to Watch for Texas State

Brady McBride QB 6-0 204

This season, Brady McBride has put up 1125 yards and 9 touchdowns. He has thrown 7 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 113.2thus far this season. Brady McBride has thrown 7 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Brady McBride has 35.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 61.57 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 50.0 times this season, which puts him in the 90.2 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 0.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Brock Sturges RB 5-11 200

This season, Brock Sturges has 467 rushing yards on 94 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 5 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Brock Sturges picked up 85 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 9 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.

Marcell Barbee WR 6-2 192

This season, Marcell Barbee picked up 328 yards. He caught the ball 21 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 7 receiving touchdowns this season.

Nico Ezidore DL 6-2 290

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Texas State, Nico Ezidore has 43 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 8 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 98.93 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 2 times this season, which put him in the 87.42 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Tory Spears S 6-3 200

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Texas State, Tory Spears had 44 tackles which puts him in the 98.48 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 35.61 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Tory Spears as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 40.81 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Jarron Morris CB 5-9 158

Considered the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Texas State, Jarron Morris had 36 tackles which puts him in the 99.26 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 3 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 98.14 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Jarron Morris as a ball hawker was able to pick off 3 passes last season, which puts him in the 99.07 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Appalachian State vs. Texas State Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: Appalachian State 41 Texas State 19

Spread Pick: Appalachian State -21 -109 Pinnacle Sports
Moneyline Pick: Appalachian State -1087 SportsInteraction
Total Pick: Over 57 -109 Pinnacle Sports