College Football Picks, Predictions, and Previews: The Way It Oughtta Be

Arkansas vs. Missouri 12/5/2020 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

The Arkansas visits Missouri on 12/5/2020 at 12:00PM.

Arkansas and Missouri face off in an important game for both teams as every game in this shortened season with limited or no fans in attendance means more. Arkansas has a record of 3-5 this season. Missouri is 4-3 this season. Both have players to meet and know.

Arkansas Team Defense Preview

Arkansas has had 100 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 5.98 plays per drive. The struggle is real. Arkansas cannot find a way to get opposing offenses off the field. Three and outs are not common and if the team needs a three-and-out late in a game to get the ball back, it is just not happening.Arkansas has a generally average defense. Nothing too special about it, but they are capable of rising up when needed. Arkansas opponents pass the football 49.16% of the time.Opponents typically have some form of run/pass balance against them.

Arkansas is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to create negative yardage plays on the ground. Opponent rushing yards attributed to their offensive line this season comes out to 3.16 yards per carry. This defense lets offensive lines have too much control over them on the ground, too much push from the opposing offensive line. This is also a team that is allowing running backs and quarterbacks to get to the second-level in an average fashion. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to give up big rushing plays.

This Defense has had average success disrupting the flow of the opposing offense.. This front seven is simply unable to make an impact, something must change or else the problems will repeat. Arkansas has shown themselves to be better at stopping the pass than the run this season.

Arkansas Team Offense Preview

Arkansas has had 98 drives in non-garbage time minutes and they average 4.97 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, Arkansas is not a team that runs many plays per drive. The offense is either prone to faltering and struggles to notch first downs or extremely explosive, we will need to find out a bit more to get answers. Arkansas has shown a capability to be explosive on first and second down to avoid third downs and has converted well (relatively) on 3rd and 4th Down situations. Arkansas passes the football 49.28% of the time.Relatively speaking, this is a team that favors run/pass balance.

Arkansas is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to avoid negative yardage plays on the ground. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 2.82 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average offensive line as far as their ability to set up the running game. When it comes to getting to that second level where linebackers have not crashed down on the line of scrimmage, they are getting stopped with ease. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to bust out big rushing plays.

Defenses have had average success disrupting the flow of the Arkansas Offense. Front sevens of opposing defenses are causing a lot of problems. Arkansas is a better passing team than running team this season.

Missouri Team Defense Preview

Missouri has had 69 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 5.59 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive opponents run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Missouri has a generally average defense. Nothing too special about it, but they are capable of rising up when needed. Passing plays make up 52.33% of their opponents’ play calls.Missouri tends to face teams that prefer to air it out or opponents want to air it out against them.

Missouri opponents have struggled with running the ball and this defense has crushed the spirits of their opponents with zero or negative yard plays. 4th and Short is not a cake walk against this defense, maybe passing on 4th and Short or having some sort of RPO is the way to go here because if an Offensive Coordinator thinks that they can just line and run a Quarterback Sneak or hand it off to a tailback, they are mistaken. Opponent rushing yards attributed to their offensive line this season comes out to 2.9 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average defense when it comes to how offensive lines control or fail to control them on the ground. This is a team that is getting gashed too much for the tastes of their base. Linebackers are not stopping the bleeding well enough. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to give up big rushing plays.

This Defense has had average success disrupting the flow of the opposing offense.. Getting more granual into the front seven and their ability to cause trouble, they are just average in this regard. Missouri has shown themselves to be better at stopping the pass than the run this season.

Missouri Team Offense Preview

Missouri has had 71 drives in non-garbage time minutes and they average 5.69 plays per drive. Missouri runs a lot of plays per drive and this could wear an opposing defense down. Missouri is an average offense when it comes to staying ahead of the chains, getting into 3rd and Short scenarios, and converting on 3rd and 4th Down. Passing plays make up 47.28% of their play calls.Relatively speaking, this is a team that favors run/pass balance.

Missouri is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to avoid negative yardage plays on the ground. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 2.65 yards per carry. So what does this mean? It means that the offensive line has been incredibly disappointing in their contribution to the ground game. When it comes to getting to that second level where linebackers have not crashed down on the line of scrimmage, they are getting stopped with ease. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to bust out big rushing plays.

Missouri has bullied and controlled defenses this season, defenses have not been able to dictate what this offense is able to do to them. Opponents should consider a containment strategy. Front sevens are causing an average amount of trouble for the Offense. Missouri is a better passing team than running team this season.

The Arkansas Roster

The Players to Watch for Arkansas

Feleipe Franks QB 6-6 228

This season, Feleipe Franks has put up 2017 yards and 17 touchdowns. He has thrown 4 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 163.4thus far this season. Feleipe Franks has thrown 4 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Feleipe Franks has 229.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 89.21 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 92.0 times this season, which puts him in the 96.83 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 1.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Trelon Smith RB 5-9 185

This season, Trelon Smith has 469 rushing yards on 89 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 2 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Trelon Smith picked up 134 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 20 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.

Treylon Burks WR 6-3 232

This season, Treylon Burks picked up 598 yards. He caught the ball 39 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 6 receiving touchdowns this season.

Jonathan Marshall DL 6-3 317

The leading tackler among Defensive Ends for Arkansas, Jonathan Marshall has 30 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 6 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 92.0 percentile among Defensive Ends. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 1 times this season, which put him in the 68.5 percentile among all Defensive Ends in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Jalen Catalon DB 5-10 189.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Arkansas, Jalen Catalon had 86 tackles which puts him in the 100.0 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 2 tackles for loss this season, which puts him in the 87.65 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 0 times this season. Jalen Catalon as a ball hawker was able to pick off 3 passes this season, which puts him in the 98.42 percentile among returning secondary position players this season.

The Missouri Roster

The Players to Watch for Missouri

Connor Bazelak QB 6-3 220

This season, Connor Bazelak has put up 1622 yards and 5 touchdowns. He has thrown 2 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 141.5thus far this season. Connor Bazelak has thrown 2 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Connor Bazelak has 39.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 59.68 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 36.0 times this season, which puts him in the 74.44 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 1.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Larry Rountree III RB 5-10 210

This season, Larry Rountree III has 650 rushing yards on 143 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 8 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Larry Rountree III picked up 57 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 10 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Jalen Knox WR 6-0 196

This season, Jalen Knox picked up 261 yards. He caught the ball 26 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Tre’ Williams DL 6-5 260

The leading tackler among Defensive Ends for Missouri, Tre’ Williams has 16 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 3 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 78.17 percentile among Defensive Ends. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 2 times this season, which put him in the 82.48 percentile among all Defensive Ends in College Football. He has forced 1 fumbles this season.

Martez Manuel S 6-1 200.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Missouri, Martez Manuel had 40 tackles which puts him in the 91.33 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 5 tackles for loss this season, which puts him in the 98.56 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 2 times this season. Martez Manuel as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes this season, which puts him in the 38.31 percentile among returning secondary position players this season.

Arkansas vs. Missouri Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: Arkansas 25 Missouri 23

Spread Pick: Arkansas +3 -110 Pinnacle Sports
Moneyline Pick: Arkansas +126 matchbook
Total Pick: Under 52.5 -113 Bookmaker