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Arkansas State vs. Texas State 11/21/2020 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

The Arkansas State visits Texas State on 11/21/2020 at 12:00PM.

Arkansas State and Texas State face off in an important game for both teams as every game in this shortened season with limited or no fans in attendance means more. Arkansas State has a record of 3-5 this season. Texas State is 1-9 this season. Both have players to meet and know.

Arkansas State Team Defense Preview

Arkansas State has had 103 total defensive drives this season and they yield 5.59 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive opponents run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Arkansas State has a generally average defense. Nothing too special about it, but they are capable of rising up when needed. Arkansas State opponents pass the football 48.09% of the time.Opponents typically have some form of run/pass balance against them.

Arkansas State opponents have struggled with running the ball and this defense has crushed the spirits of their opponents with zero or negative yard plays. 4th and Short is not a cake walk against this defense, maybe passing on 4th and Short or having some sort of RPO is the way to go here because if an Offensive Coordinator thinks that they can just line and run a Quarterback Sneak or hand it off to a tailback, they are mistaken. Opponent rushing yards attributed to their offensive line this season comes out to 2.53 yards per carry. Opponent offensive lines have been simply unable to support their running games against this defense. This is also a team that is allowing running backs and quarterbacks to get to the second-level in an average fashion. They are capable of giving up a long run, which is really demoralizing when the opposing team has the ball deep in their own territory.

This Defense has had average success disrupting the flow of the opposing offense.. Getting more granual into the front seven and their ability to cause trouble, they are just average in this regard. Arkansas State is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

Arkansas State Team Offense Preview

Arkansas State has had 102 total drives this season and they generate 5.67 plays per drive. Arkansas State runs a lot of plays per drive and this could wear an opposing defense down. Arkansas State is an average offense when it comes to staying ahead of the chains, getting into 3rd and Short scenarios, and converting on 3rd and 4th Down. Passing plays make up 60.21% of their play calls.This is an Air Raid Offense team, they are going to pass the ball a lot and running plays are only used to keep opponents honest.

Arkansas State is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to avoid negative yardage plays on the ground. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 2.81 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average offensive line as far as their ability to set up the running game. This is also a team that is getting to the second-level in an average fashion. Offensive line and running backs are average in this regard. They feature a relatively average explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play, but it is not something to count on from them.

Defenses have had average success disrupting the flow of the Arkansas State Offense. There has been a relatively good job done by this Offensive Line to prevent opposing front sevens from causing problems consistently. Arkansas State is a better passing team than running team this season.

Texas State Team Defense Preview

Texas State has had 124 total defensive drives this season and they yield 5.81 plays per drive. Texas State lets opponents run a lot of plays per drive and in the Fourth Quarter, this team could be gassed. Texas State has shown an inability to stop defenses from converting on 4th Downs and they let opponents get into manageable 3rd Down situations where an RPO may be especially deadly. Passing plays make up 46.88% of their opponents’ play calls.Their opponents favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

Defenses want to stop offenses from getting into a 3rd Down where the options are plentiful. Unfortunately, this defense is too porous to limit those choices. How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? Texas State can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 3.07 yards per carry. This defense lets offensive lines have too much control over them on the ground, too much push from the opposing offensive line. This is also a team that is allowing running backs and quarterbacks to get to the second-level in an average fashion. Opponents have shown a relatively average level of explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play against them.

This is not a disruptive Defense and they get pushed over way too easily. Perhaps they are too vanilla with playcalling. This front seven is simply unable to make an impact, something must change or else the problems will repeat. Texas State is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

Texas State Team Offense Preview

Texas State has had 120 total drives this season and they generate 5.03 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, Texas State is not a team that runs many plays per drive. The offense is either prone to faltering and struggles to notch first downs or extremely explosive, we will need to find out a bit more to get answers. Struggles to get ahead of the chains and convert on third and fourth down are common, the offense can stagnate. Texas State passes the football 53.73% of the time.Texas State tends to pass more than other teams.

Texas State struggles with running the ball, getting zero or negative yard plays is disspiriting and the offensive line is not effectively making a good push. Poor playcalling, pre-snap adjustments or post-snap reads may be responsible and this could fall on the Quarterback, Offensive Coordinator, and Head Coach. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 2.78 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average offensive line as far as their ability to set up the running game. This is a team that is rather above-average when it comes to gashing defenses. The threat of the run should force opposing to play more honest and assignment defensive football is a must. They feature a relatively average explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play, but it is not something to count on from them.

Defenses have been able to impose their will on the Texas State Offense this season. Front sevens of opposing defenses are causing a lot of problems. Texas State has shown themselves to be a better running team than passing team this season.

The Arkansas State Roster

The Players to Watch for Arkansas State

Layne Hatcher QB 6-0 210

This season, Layne Hatcher has put up 1337 yards and 12 touchdowns. He has thrown 2 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 163.1thus far this season. Layne Hatcher has thrown 2 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Layne Hatcher has 1.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 29.18 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 31.0 times this season, which puts him in the 74.74 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 0.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Lincoln Pare RB 5-9 190

This season, Lincoln Pare has 436 rushing yards on 69 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 1 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Lincoln Pare picked up 85 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 12 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 2 receiving touchdowns this season.

Jonathan Adams Jr. WR 6-3 220

This season, Jonathan Adams Jr. picked up 832 yards. He caught the ball 60 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 8 receiving touchdowns this season.

Forrest Merrill DL 6-1 338

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Arkansas State, Forrest Merrill has 31 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 4 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 86.99 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 0 times this season, which put him in the 32.27 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 1 fumbles this season.

Elery Alexander DB 6-0 190

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Arkansas State, Elery Alexander had 40 tackles which puts him in the 94.91 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 3 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 96.11 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Elery Alexander as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 39.44 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Samy Johnson CB 5-10 175

Considered the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Arkansas State, Samy Johnson had 25 tackles which puts him in the 92.77 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 36.32 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Samy Johnson as a ball hawker was able to pick off 2 passes last season, which puts him in the 94.65 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

The Texas State Roster

The Players to Watch for Texas State

Brady McBride QB 6-0 204

This season, Brady McBride has put up 1280 yards and 11 touchdowns. He has thrown 7 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 118.9thus far this season. Brady McBride has thrown 7 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Brady McBride has 42.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 61.95 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 52.0 times this season, which puts him in the 88.23 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 0.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Brock Sturges RB 5-11 200

This season, Brock Sturges has 514 rushing yards on 103 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 5 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Brock Sturges picked up 101 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 10 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.

Marcell Barbee WR 6-2 192

This season, Marcell Barbee picked up 464 yards. He caught the ball 32 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 9 receiving touchdowns this season.

Nico Ezidore DL 6-2 290

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Texas State, Nico Ezidore has 56 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 10 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 99.12 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 2 times this season, which put him in the 84.25 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Zion Childress S 6-0 183

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Texas State, Zion Childress had 53 tackles which puts him in the 98.66 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 34.12 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Zion Childress as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 39.44 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Jarron Morris CB 5-9 158

Considered the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Texas State, Jarron Morris had 60 tackles which puts him in the 100.0 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 4 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 99.21 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Jarron Morris as a ball hawker was able to pick off 4 passes last season, which puts him in the 99.84 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Arkansas State vs. Texas State Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: Arkansas State 39 Texas State 30

Spread Pick: Arkansas State -5.5 -113 Pinnacle Sports
Moneyline Pick: Arkansas State -205 5Dimes
Total Pick: Over 66.5 -143 matchbook