College Football Picks, Predictions, and Previews: The Way It Oughtta Be

Auburn vs. Alabama 11/28/2020 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

The Auburn visits Alabama on 11/28/2020 at 3:30PM.

Auburn and Alabama face off in an important game for both teams as every game in this shortened season with limited or no fans in attendance means more. Auburn has a record of 5-2 this season. Alabama is 7-0 this season. Both have players to meet and know.

Auburn Team Defense Preview

Auburn has had 73 total defensive drives this season and they yield 6.44 plays per drive. The struggle is real. Auburn cannot find a way to get opposing offenses off the field. Three and outs are not common and if the team needs a three-and-out late in a game to get the ball back, it is just not happening.Auburn has shown an inability to stop defenses from converting on 4th Downs and they let opponents get into manageable 3rd Down situations where an RPO may be especially deadly. Auburn opponents pass the football 45.74% of the time.Their opponents favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

This is a pushover defense. There is not enough push from the Defensive Line and not enough imagination from the Defensive Coordinator to cause chaos in the backfield.Opponent rushing yards attributed to their offensive line this season comes out to 3.08 yards per carry. This defense lets offensive lines have too much control over them on the ground, too much push from the opposing offensive line. This is also a team that is allowing running backs and quarterbacks to get to the second-level in an average fashion. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to give up big rushing plays.

This is not a disruptive Defense and they get pushed over way too easily. Perhaps they are too vanilla with playcalling. This front seven is simply unable to make an impact, something must change or else the problems will repeat. Auburn is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

Auburn Team Offense Preview

Auburn has had 70 total drives this season and they generate 6.44 plays per drive. When you are among the best at plays per drive, you are certainly a team that aims to wear down the opposition with a high play count or with long, physical grinding drives that eat up a lot of clock. We need to find out more here when it comes to Auburn. Auburn has shown a capability to be explosive on first and second down to avoid third downs and has converted well (relatively) on 3rd and 4th Down situations. Passing plays make up 51.00% of their play calls.Relatively speaking, this is a team that favors run/pass balance.

Move the pile forward, falling forward, making progress, ensuring north-south running, smart Quarterback reads, well-adjusted alignments to ensure leverage, and an offensive line that is getting a great push forward are cornerstones of this offense. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. Auburn can take credit for 3.29 yards per carry. This is an elite offensive line when it comes to generating a push for the running game. They know how to create creases for running backs to break loose. Playing 7 in a box may not be enough for opposing defenses, this is a great O-Line. The offensive line and running back corps deserve a lot of credit for gashing defenses with their running game like the way they have this season. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to bust out big rushing plays.

Auburn has bullied and controlled defenses this season, defenses have not been able to dictate what this offense is able to do to them. Opponents should consider a containment strategy. There has been a relatively good job done by this Offensive Line to prevent opposing front sevens from causing problems consistently. Auburn has shown themselves to be a better running team than passing team this season.

Alabama Team Defense Preview

Alabama has had 72 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 5.15 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, Alabama is not a team that allows many plays per drive. This defense either gives up big plays quickly or induces a lot of three-and-outs, we shall find out more. Opponents face third and long situations a lot against this defense. This is a defense that forces opponents to commit penalties, have compromised offensive line play, and fail to convert on crunch possessions. Passing plays make up 51.21% of their opponents’ play calls.Alabama tends to face teams that prefer to air it out or opponents want to air it out against them.

Defenses want to stop offenses from getting into a 3rd Down where the options are plentiful. Unfortunately, this defense is too porous to limit those choices. Opponent rushing yards attributed to their offensive line this season comes out to 2.62 yards per carry. Opponent offensive lines have been simply unable to support their running games against this defense. This is also a team that is allowing running backs and quarterbacks to get to the second-level in an average fashion. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to give up big rushing plays.

Disruptive plays are a part of the fabric of this team’s defensive effort. Game changing plays that drive Offensive Coordinators and Quarterbacks crazy, they find ways to deliver. Getting more granual into the front seven and their ability to cause trouble, they are just average in this regard. Alabama is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

Alabama Team Offense Preview

Alabama has had 71 drives in non-garbage time minutes and they average 5.49 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive they run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Any defense is in for a challenge with Alabama, given their ability to accrue more than 5 yards on 1st Downs and their ability to convert on 3rd and 4th Downs. They put a lot of pressure on opposing defenses.Passing plays make up 51.54% of their play calls.Relatively speaking, this is a team that favors run/pass balance.

Move the pile forward, falling forward, making progress, ensuring north-south running, smart Quarterback reads, well-adjusted alignments to ensure leverage, and an offensive line that is getting a great push forward are cornerstones of this offense. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 3.22 yards per carry. This offensive line may be underappreciated, even though the running backs get the attention. The Alabama coaching staff really deserves credit for how they prepared this offensive line, but they could be a little bit better! This is a team that is rather above-average when it comes to gashing defenses. The threat of the run should force opposing to play more honest and assignment defensive football is a must. They feature a relatively average explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play, but it is not something to count on from them.

Alabama has bullied and controlled defenses this season, defenses have not been able to dictate what this offense is able to do to them. Opponents should consider a containment strategy. Alabama is among the best in the country at keeping defensive front sevens at bay. Opposing defenses need their secondary players to step up and cause trouble in order for this Offense to be disrupted. Alabama is a better passing team than running team this season.

The Auburn Roster

The Players to Watch for Auburn

Bo Nix QB 6-2 213

This season, Bo Nix has put up 1627 yards and 10 touchdowns. He has thrown 5 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 133.2thus far this season. Bo Nix has thrown 5 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Bo Nix has 284.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 93.11 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 71.0 times this season, which puts him in the 92.95 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 3.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Tank Bigsby RB 6-0 204

This season, Tank Bigsby has 527 rushing yards on 92 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 5 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Tank Bigsby picked up 84 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 11 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Seth Williams WR 6-3 211

This season, Seth Williams picked up 563 yards. He caught the ball 33 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 3 receiving touchdowns this season.

Daquan Newkirk DT 6-3 317

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Auburn, Daquan Newkirk has 23 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 3 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 84.98 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 2 times this season, which put him in the 90.85 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Big Cat Bryant DE 6-5 250

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Auburn, Big Cat Bryant has 10 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 1 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 51.58 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 1 times this season, which put him in the 70.17 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Jamien Sherwood DB 6-2 220.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Auburn, Jamien Sherwood had 51 tackles which puts him in the 97.72 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 3 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 95.56 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 1 times last season. Jamien Sherwood as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 39.16 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

The Alabama Roster

The Players to Watch for Alabama

Mac Jones QB 6-2 214

This season, Mac Jones has put up 2426 yards and 18 touchdowns. He has thrown 3 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 205.1thus far this season. Mac Jones has thrown 3 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Mac Jones has -9.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 14.59 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 18.0 times this season, which puts him in the 57.05 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 1.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Najee Harris RB 6-2 230

This season, Najee Harris has 797 rushing yards on 137 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 16 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Najee Harris picked up 210 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 22 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Devonta Smith WR 6-1 175

This season, Devonta Smith picked up 903 yards. He caught the ball 65 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 10 receiving touchdowns this season.

Phidarian Mathis DL 6-4 312

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Alabama, Phidarian Mathis has 19 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 4 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 85.32 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 1 times this season, which put him in the 70.17 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Jordan Battle DB 6-1 210.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Alabama, Jordan Battle had 37 tackles which puts him in the 91.67 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 1 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 75.36 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Jordan Battle as a ball hawker was able to pick off 1 passes last season, which puts him in the 85.62 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Auburn vs. Alabama Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: Auburn 22 Alabama 35

Spread Pick: No Action
Moneyline Pick: Alabama -670 10Bet
Total Pick: Under 63 -105 Pinnacle Sports