College Football Picks, Predictions, and Previews: The Way It Oughtta Be

Auburn vs. Mississippi State 12/12/2020 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

The Auburn visits Mississippi State on 12/12/2020 at 7:30PM.

Auburn and Mississippi State face off in an important game for both teams as every game in this shortened season with limited or no fans in attendance means more. Auburn has a record of 5-4 this season. Mississippi State is 2-6 this season. Both have players to meet and know.

Auburn Team Defense Preview

Auburn has had 90 total defensive drives this season and they yield 6.37 plays per drive. The struggle is real. Auburn cannot find a way to get opposing offenses off the field. Three and outs are not common and if the team needs a three-and-out late in a game to get the ball back, it is just not happening.Offensives should lick their lips given their inability to stop anyone, this is one of the worst defenses in the country. The Defensive Coordinator coaching search threads on Auburn message boards are flights of fantasy. Passing plays make up 45.20% of their opponents’ play calls.Their opponents favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

This is a pushover defense. There is not enough push from the Defensive Line and not enough imagination from the Defensive Coordinator to cause chaos in the backfield.Opponent rushing yards attributed to their offensive line this season comes out to 3.22 yards per carry. This defense lets offensive lines have too much control over them on the ground, too much push from the opposing offensive line. This is a team that is getting gashed too much for the tastes of their base. Linebackers are not stopping the bleeding well enough. Opponents have shown a relatively average level of explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play against them.

This is not a disruptive Defense and they get pushed over way too easily. Perhaps they are too vanilla with playcalling. This front seven is simply unable to make an impact, something must change or else the problems will repeat. Auburn is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

Auburn Team Offense Preview

Auburn has had 88 total drives this season and they generate 6.34 plays per drive. When you are among the best at plays per drive, you are certainly a team that aims to wear down the opposition with a high play count or with long, physical grinding drives that eat up a lot of clock. We need to find out more here when it comes to Auburn. Auburn is an average offense when it comes to staying ahead of the chains, getting into 3rd and Short scenarios, and converting on 3rd and 4th Down. Passing plays make up 51.61% of their play calls.Auburn tends to pass more than other teams.

On first downs, getting ahead of the chains is crucial and running the ball well on first down can get a team there, Auburn has done a good job avoiding the negative yardage rushing plays. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 3.28 yards per carry. This is an elite offensive line when it comes to generating a push for the running game. They know how to create creases for running backs to break loose. Playing 7 in a box may not be enough for opposing defenses, this is a great O-Line. The offensive line and running back corps deserve a lot of credit for gashing defenses with their running game like the way they have this season. They feature a relatively average explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play, but it is not something to count on from them.

Auburn has bullied and controlled defenses this season, defenses have not been able to dictate what this offense is able to do to them. Opponents should consider a containment strategy. There has been a relatively good job done by this Offensive Line to prevent opposing front sevens from causing problems consistently. Auburn has shown themselves to be a better running team than passing team this season.

Mississippi State Team Defense Preview

Mississippi State has had 98 total defensive drives this season and they yield 5.3 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive opponents run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Mississippi State has a generally average defense. Nothing too special about it, but they are capable of rising up when needed. Mississippi State opponents pass the football 53.37% of the time.Mississippi State tends to face teams that prefer to air it out or opponents want to air it out against them.

Mississippi State is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to create negative yardage plays on the ground. How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? Mississippi State can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 2.82 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average defense when it comes to how offensive lines control or fail to control them on the ground. This is also a team that is allowing running backs and quarterbacks to get to the second-level in an average fashion. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to give up big rushing plays.

This Defense has had average success disrupting the flow of the opposing offense.. Getting more granual into the front seven and their ability to cause trouble, they are just average in this regard. Mississippi State has shown themselves to be better at stopping the pass than the run this season.

Mississippi State Team Offense Preview

Mississippi State has had 97 total drives this season and they generate 5.46 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive they run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Mississippi State is an average offense when it comes to staying ahead of the chains, getting into 3rd and Short scenarios, and converting on 3rd and 4th Down. Passing plays make up 80.94% of their play calls.This is an Air Raid Offense team, they are going to pass the ball a lot and running plays are only used to keep opponents honest.

Mississippi State is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to avoid negative yardage plays on the ground. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 2.37 yards per carry. So what does this mean? It means that the offensive line has been incredibly disappointing in their contribution to the ground game. When it comes to getting to that second level where linebackers have not crashed down on the line of scrimmage, they are getting stopped with ease. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to bust out big rushing plays.

Defenses have been able to impose their will on the Mississippi State Offense this season. There has been a relatively good job done by this Offensive Line to prevent opposing front sevens from causing problems consistently. Mississippi State is a better passing team than running team this season.

The Auburn Roster

The Players to Watch for Auburn

Bo Nix QB 6-2 213

This season, Bo Nix has put up 1998 yards and 10 touchdowns. He has thrown 7 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 127.5thus far this season. Bo Nix has thrown 7 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Bo Nix has 332.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 93.21 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 91.0 times this season, which puts him in the 94.91 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 6.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Tank Bigsby RB 6-0 204

This season, Tank Bigsby has 642 rushing yards on 112 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 5 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Tank Bigsby picked up 84 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 11 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Seth Williams WR 6-3 211

This season, Seth Williams picked up 631 yards. He caught the ball 39 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 3 receiving touchdowns this season.

Daquan Newkirk DT 6-3 317

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Auburn, Daquan Newkirk has 27 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 3 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 81.61 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 2 times this season, which put him in the 89.24 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Big Cat Bryant DE 6-5 250.0

The leading tackler among Defensive Ends for Auburn, Big Cat Bryant has 13 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 2 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 64.24 percentile among Defensive Ends. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 2 times this season, which put him in the 80.93 percentile among all Defensive Ends in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Jamien Sherwood DB 6-2 220.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Auburn, Jamien Sherwood had 62 tackles which puts him in the 97.96 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 3 tackles for loss this season, which puts him in the 93.75 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 1 times this season. Jamien Sherwood as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes this season, which puts him in the 37.97 percentile among returning secondary position players this season.

The Mississippi State Roster

The Players to Watch for Mississippi State

Will Rogers QB 6-2 205

This season, Will Rogers has put up 1312 yards and 6 touchdowns. He has thrown 4 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 127.1thus far this season. Will Rogers has thrown 4 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Will Rogers has -21.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 7.72 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 12.0 times this season, which puts him in the 42.59 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 0.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Jo’quavious Marks RB 5-10 195

This season, Jo’quavious Marks has 157 rushing yards on 45 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 1 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Jo’quavious Marks picked up 211 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 50 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Jaden Walley WR 6-0 180

This season, Jaden Walley picked up 462 yards. He caught the ball 35 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.

Jaden Crumedy DT 6-5 300

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Mississippi State, Jaden Crumedy has 25 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 3 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 81.61 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 2 times this season, which put him in the 89.24 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Marquiss Spencer DE 6-4 300.0

The leading tackler among Defensive Ends for Mississippi State, Marquiss Spencer has 30 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 8 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 95.73 percentile among Defensive Ends. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 3 times this season, which put him in the 89.57 percentile among all Defensive Ends in College Football. He has forced 1 fumbles this season.

Shawn Preston JR. S 6-0 210.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Mississippi State, Shawn Preston JR. had 48 tackles which puts him in the 93.84 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 3 tackles for loss this season, which puts him in the 93.75 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 0 times this season. Shawn Preston JR. as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes this season, which puts him in the 37.97 percentile among returning secondary position players this season.

Martin Emerson CB 6-2 195

Considered the leading tackler among Cornerbacks for Mississippi State, Martin Emerson had 56 tackles which puts him in the 99.15 percentile among Corners. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 2 tackles for loss this season, which puts him in the 91.5 percentile among Corners. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 0 times this season. Martin Emerson as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes this season, which puts him in the 36.4 percentile among Corners this season.

Auburn vs. Mississippi State Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: Auburn 32 Mississippi State 19

Spread Pick: Auburn -6 -117 Pinnacle Sports
Moneyline Pick: Auburn -225 matchbook
Total Pick: Over 49 -106 Pinnacle Sports