College Football Picks, Predictions, and Previews: The Way It Oughtta Be

Ball State vs. Toledo 11/28/2020 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

The Ball State visits Toledo on 11/28/2020 at 12:00PM.

Ball State and Toledo face off in an important game for both teams as every game in this shortened season with limited or no fans in attendance means more. Ball State has a record of 2-1 this season. Toledo is 2-1 this season. Both have players to meet and know.

Ball State Team Defense Preview

Ball State has had 22 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 6.27 plays per drive. The struggle is real. Ball State cannot find a way to get opposing offenses off the field. Three and outs are not common and if the team needs a three-and-out late in a game to get the ball back, it is just not happening.Offensives should lick their lips given their inability to stop anyone, this is one of the worst defenses in the country. The Defensive Coordinator coaching search threads on Ball State message boards are flights of fantasy. Ball State opponents pass the football 50.00% of the time.Opponents typically have some form of run/pass balance against them.

Defenses want to stop offenses from getting into a 3rd Down where the options are plentiful. Unfortunately, this defense is too porous to limit those choices. How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? Ball State can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 3.27 yards per carry. Sorry to say this about this front seven, but the best way to make an average offensive line look good is for them to face this horrid front seven. This is also a team that is allowing running backs and quarterbacks to get to the second-level in an average fashion. Opponents have shown a relatively average level of explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play against them.

Ball State has made the turnover belt, chain, pads, lunch pail or whatever gimmick they use change hands a lot. This is a Defense that causes pure aggravation. Ball State should have a sign ready for opponents near the Visitor Locker Room that says “Welcome to Hell”, this front seven is deep and they cause a lot of problems. Ball State is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

Ball State Team Offense Preview

Ball State has had 22 total drives this season and they generate 6.68 plays per drive. When you are among the best at plays per drive, you are certainly a team that aims to wear down the opposition with a high play count or with long, physical grinding drives that eat up a lot of clock. We need to find out more here when it comes to Ball State. Any defense is in for a challenge with Ball State, given their ability to accrue more than 5 yards on 1st Downs and their ability to convert on 3rd and 4th Downs. They put a lot of pressure on opposing defenses.Ball State passes the football 41.50% of the time.They favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

Move the pile forward, falling forward, making progress, ensuring north-south running, smart Quarterback reads, well-adjusted alignments to ensure leverage, and an offensive line that is getting a great push forward are cornerstones of this offense. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. Ball State can take credit for 3.65 yards per carry. This is an elite offensive line when it comes to generating a push for the running game. They know how to create creases for running backs to break loose. Playing 7 in a box may not be enough for opposing defenses, this is a great O-Line. The offensive line and running back corps deserve a lot of credit for gashing defenses with their running game like the way they have this season. They feature a relatively average explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play, but it is not something to count on from them.

Defenses have been able to impose their will on the Ball State Offense this season. Front sevens of opposing defenses are causing a lot of problems. Ball State has shown themselves to be a better running team than passing team this season.

Toledo Team Defense Preview

Toledo has had 36 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 3.75 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, Toledo is not a team that allows many plays per drive. This defense either gives up big plays quickly or induces a lot of three-and-outs, we shall find out more. Opponents face third and long situations a lot against this defense. This is a defense that forces opponents to commit penalties, have compromised offensive line play, and fail to convert on crunch possessions. Toledo opponents pass the football 51.85% of the time.Toledo tends to face teams that prefer to air it out or opponents want to air it out against them.

Toledo opponents have struggled with running the ball and this defense has crushed the spirits of their opponents with zero or negative yard plays. 4th and Short is not a cake walk against this defense, maybe passing on 4th and Short or having some sort of RPO is the way to go here because if an Offensive Coordinator thinks that they can just line and run a Quarterback Sneak or hand it off to a tailback, they are mistaken. How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? Toledo can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 2.63 yards per carry. Opponent offensive lines have been simply unable to support their running games against this defense. This is also a team that is allowing running backs and quarterbacks to get to the second-level in an average fashion. Opponents have shown a relatively average level of explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play against them.

Toledo has made the turnover belt, chain, pads, lunch pail or whatever gimmick they use change hands a lot. This is a Defense that causes pure aggravation. Getting more granual into the front seven and their ability to cause trouble, they are just average in this regard. Toledo is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

Toledo Team Offense Preview

Toledo has had 34 drives in non-garbage time minutes and they average 5.74 plays per drive. Toledo runs a lot of plays per drive and this could wear an opposing defense down. Toledo has shown a capability to be explosive on first and second down to avoid third downs and has converted well (relatively) on 3rd and 4th Down situations. Toledo passes the football 49.74% of the time.Relatively speaking, this is a team that favors run/pass balance.

Toledo is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to avoid negative yardage plays on the ground. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 3.01 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average offensive line as far as their ability to set up the running game. This is also a team that is getting to the second-level in an average fashion. Offensive line and running backs are average in this regard. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to bust out big rushing plays.

Defenses have had trouble making big, disruptive plays against Toledo this season. Front sevens are causing an average amount of trouble for the Offense. Toledo is a better passing team than running team this season.

The Ball State Roster

The Players to Watch for Ball State

Drew Plitt QB 6-2 217

This season, Drew Plitt has put up 755 yards and 4 touchdowns. He has thrown 3 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 146.2thus far this season. Drew Plitt has thrown 3 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Drew Plitt has 17.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 45.57 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 28.0 times this season, which puts him in the 70.33 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 0.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Caleb Huntley RB 5-10 229

This season, Caleb Huntley has 437 rushing yards on 80 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 6 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Caleb Huntley picked up 13 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 1 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Justin Hall WR 5-9 186

This season, Justin Hall picked up 252 yards. He caught the ball 18 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.

Joshua Tarango DL 6-2 289

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Ball State, Joshua Tarango has 6 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 1 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 51.58 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 0 times this season, which put him in the 31.47 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Brett Anderson II S 6-0 190.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Ball State, Brett Anderson II had 23 tackles which puts him in the 74.06 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 33.65 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Brett Anderson II as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 39.16 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Antonio Phillips CB 6-0 191

Considered the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Ball State, Antonio Phillips had 13 tackles which puts him in the 66.21 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 35.17 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Antonio Phillips as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 38.07 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

The Toledo Roster

The Players to Watch for Toledo

Eli Peters QB 6-2 195

This season, Eli Peters has put up 743 yards and 7 touchdowns. He has thrown 1 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 155.4thus far this season. Eli Peters has thrown 1 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Eli Peters has 35.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 58.85 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 14.0 times this season, which puts him in the 50.0 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 0.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Bryant Koback RB 6-0 205

This season, Bryant Koback has 301 rushing yards on 69 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 3 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Bryant Koback picked up 125 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 12 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.

Isaiah Winstead WR 6-3 210

This season, Isaiah Winstead picked up 170 yards. He caught the ball 8 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.

Darius Alexander DT 6-4 305

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Toledo, Darius Alexander has 7 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 0 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 25.82 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 0 times this season, which put him in the 34.51 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Jamal Hines DE 6-3 250

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Toledo, Jamal Hines has 11 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 3 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 80.1 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 2 times this season, which put him in the 83.9 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 1 fumbles this season.

Tycen Anderson S 6-2 205.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Toledo, Tycen Anderson had 12 tackles which puts him in the 53.81 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 33.65 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Tycen Anderson as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 39.16 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Justin Clark CB 5-11 180

Considered the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Toledo, Justin Clark had 9 tackles which puts him in the 52.29 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 35.17 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Justin Clark as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 38.07 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Ball State vs. Toledo Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: Ball State 32 Toledo 36

Spread Pick: Ball State +10 -108 Pinnacle Sports
Moneyline Pick: Toledo -340 Bovada
Total Pick: Over 63.5 -118 Pinnacle Sports