College Football Picks, Predictions, and Previews: The Way It Oughtta Be

Boise State vs. UNLV 12/4/2020 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

The Boise State visits UNLV on 12/4/2020 at 9:30PM.

Boise State and UNLV face off in an important game for both teams as every game in this shortened season with limited or no fans in attendance means more. Boise State has a record of 4-1 this season. UNLV is 0-5 this season. Both have players to meet and know.

Boise State Team Defense Preview

Boise State has had 55 total defensive drives this season and they yield 5.29 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive opponents run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Opponents face third and long situations a lot against this defense. This is a defense that forces opponents to commit penalties, have compromised offensive line play, and fail to convert on crunch possessions. Passing plays make up 41.92% of their opponents’ play calls.Their opponents favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

Defenses want to stop offenses from getting into a 3rd Down where the options are plentiful. Unfortunately, this defense is too porous to limit those choices. How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? Boise State can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 3.18 yards per carry. This defense lets offensive lines have too much control over them on the ground, too much push from the opposing offensive line. This is also a team that is allowing running backs and quarterbacks to get to the second-level in an average fashion. They are capable of giving up a long run, which is really demoralizing when the opposing team has the ball deep in their own territory.

This is not a disruptive Defense and they get pushed over way too easily. Perhaps they are too vanilla with playcalling. Getting more granual into the front seven and their ability to cause trouble, they are just average in this regard. Boise State has shown themselves to be better at stopping the pass than the run this season.

Boise State Team Offense Preview

Boise State has had 46 drives in non-garbage time minutes and they average 5.61 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive they run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Any defense is in for a challenge with Boise State, given their ability to accrue more than 5 yards on 1st Downs and their ability to convert on 3rd and 4th Downs. They put a lot of pressure on opposing defenses.Boise State passes the football 51.16% of the time.Relatively speaking, this is a team that favors run/pass balance.

On first downs, getting ahead of the chains is crucial and running the ball well on first down can get a team there, Boise State has done a good job avoiding the negative yardage rushing plays. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 2.88 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average offensive line as far as their ability to set up the running game. When it comes to getting to that second level where linebackers have not crashed down on the line of scrimmage, they are getting stopped with ease. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to bust out big rushing plays.

Defenses have had average success disrupting the flow of the Boise State Offense. Front sevens are causing an average amount of trouble for the Offense. Boise State is a better passing team than running team this season.

UNLV Team Defense Preview

UNLV has had 54 total defensive drives this season and they yield 5.44 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive opponents run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Offensives should lick their lips given their inability to stop anyone, this is one of the worst defenses in the country. The Defensive Coordinator coaching search threads on UNLV message boards are flights of fantasy. UNLV opponents pass the football 46.26% of the time.Their opponents favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

Defenses want to stop offenses from getting into a 3rd Down where the options are plentiful. Unfortunately, this defense is too porous to limit those choices. How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? UNLV can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 3.5 yards per carry. Sorry to say this about this front seven, but the best way to make an average offensive line look good is for them to face this horrid front seven. Running backs should look forward to this porous defense filled with poor tacklers who take terrible angles. Long breakout runs against this Defense are far too common. This is a very porous rushing defense that is incapable of preventing a situation where their safeties chase down a running back or quarterback.

This is not a disruptive Defense and they get pushed over way too easily. Perhaps they are too vanilla with playcalling. This front seven is simply unable to make an impact, something must change or else the problems will repeat. UNLV has shown themselves to be better at stopping the pass than the run this season.

UNLV Team Offense Preview

UNLV has had 53 total drives this season and they generate 6.02 plays per drive. When you are among the best at plays per drive, you are certainly a team that aims to wear down the opposition with a high play count or with long, physical grinding drives that eat up a lot of clock. We need to find out more here when it comes to UNLV. Struggles to get ahead of the chains and convert on third and fourth down are common, the offense can stagnate. Passing plays make up 54.23% of their play calls.UNLV tends to pass more than other teams.

On first downs, getting ahead of the chains is crucial and running the ball well on first down can get a team there, UNLV has done a good job avoiding the negative yardage rushing plays. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 3.04 yards per carry. This offensive line may be underappreciated, even though the running backs get the attention. The UNLV coaching staff really deserves credit for how they prepared this offensive line, but they could be a little bit better! This is also a team that is getting to the second-level in an average fashion. Offensive line and running backs are average in this regard. They feature a relatively average explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play, but it is not something to count on from them.

Defenses have been able to impose their will on the UNLV Offense this season. Front sevens of opposing defenses are causing a lot of problems. UNLV has shown themselves to be a better running team than passing team this season.

The Boise State Roster

The Players to Watch for Boise State

Hank Bachmeier QB 6-1 204

This season, Hank Bachmeier has put up 748 yards and 5 touchdowns. He has thrown 1 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 154.4thus far this season. Hank Bachmeier has thrown 1 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Hank Bachmeier has -19.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 8.6 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 14.0 times this season, which puts him in the 48.57 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 1.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Andrew Van Buren RB 6-0 228

This season, Andrew Van Buren has 277 rushing yards on 75 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 7 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Andrew Van Buren picked up 47 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 9 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Khalil Shakir WR 6-0 190

This season, Khalil Shakir picked up 529 yards. He caught the ball 38 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 6 receiving touchdowns this season.

Scott Matlock DT 6-4 282

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Boise State, Scott Matlock has 21 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 4 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 90.37 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 2 times this season, which put him in the 89.68 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Shane Irwin DE 6-3 254

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Boise State, Shane Irwin has 26 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 6 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 91.99 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 5 times this season, which put him in the 96.93 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 1 fumbles this season.

Kekaula Kaniho S 5-10 177.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Boise State, Kekaula Kaniho had 23 tackles which puts him in the 70.73 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 2 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 87.64 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Kekaula Kaniho as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 38.3 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Jalen Walker CB 6-0 181

Considered the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Boise State, Jalen Walker had 25 tackles which puts him in the 88.68 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 1 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 78.68 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Jalen Walker as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 37.5 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

The UNLV Roster

The Players to Watch for UNLV

Boise State vs. UNLV Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: Boise State 49 UNLV 21

Spread Pick: No Action
Moneyline Pick: Boise State -2229 SportsInteraction
Total Pick: Over 59.5 -110 Bookmaker