College Football Picks, Predictions, and Previews: The Way It Oughtta Be

Bowling Green vs. Ohio 11/28/2020 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

The Bowling Green visits Ohio on 11/28/2020 at 12:00PM.

Bowling Green and Ohio face off in an important game for both teams as every game in this shortened season with limited or no fans in attendance means more. Bowling Green has a record of 0-3 this season. Ohio is 1-1 this season. Both have players to meet and know.

Bowling Green Team Defense Preview

Bowling Green has had 30 total defensive drives this season and they yield 6.2 plays per drive. The struggle is real. Bowling Green cannot find a way to get opposing offenses off the field. Three and outs are not common and if the team needs a three-and-out late in a game to get the ball back, it is just not happening.Bowling Green has shown an inability to stop defenses from converting on 4th Downs and they let opponents get into manageable 3rd Down situations where an RPO may be especially deadly. Passing plays make up 36.56% of their opponents’ play calls.Their opponents favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

This is a pushover defense. There is not enough push from the Defensive Line and not enough imagination from the Defensive Coordinator to cause chaos in the backfield.How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? Bowling Green can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 3.63 yards per carry. Sorry to say this about this front seven, but the best way to make an average offensive line look good is for them to face this horrid front seven. Running backs should look forward to this porous defense filled with poor tacklers who take terrible angles. They are capable of giving up a long run, which is really demoralizing when the opposing team has the ball deep in their own territory.

This is not a disruptive Defense and they get pushed over way too easily. Perhaps they are too vanilla with playcalling. Getting more granual into the front seven and their ability to cause trouble, they are just average in this regard. Bowling Green has shown themselves to be better at stopping the pass than the run this season.

Bowling Green Team Offense Preview

Bowling Green has had 31 total drives this season and they generate 4.13 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, Bowling Green is not a team that runs many plays per drive. The offense is either prone to faltering and struggles to notch first downs or extremely explosive, we will need to find out a bit more to get answers. Struggles to get ahead of the chains and convert on third and fourth down are common, the offense can stagnate. Bowling Green passes the football 45.31% of the time.They favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

On first downs, getting ahead of the chains is crucial and running the ball well on first down can get a team there, Bowling Green has done a good job avoiding the negative yardage rushing plays. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 2.92 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average offensive line as far as their ability to set up the running game. This is also a team that is getting to the second-level in an average fashion. Offensive line and running backs are average in this regard. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to bust out big rushing plays.

Defenses have been able to impose their will on the Bowling Green Offense this season. Front sevens are causing an average amount of trouble for the Offense. Bowling Green has shown themselves to be a better running team than passing team this season.

Ohio Team Defense Preview

Ohio has had 25 total defensive drives this season and they yield 6.12 plays per drive. The struggle is real. Ohio cannot find a way to get opposing offenses off the field. Three and outs are not common and if the team needs a three-and-out late in a game to get the ball back, it is just not happening.Ohio has a generally average defense. Nothing too special about it, but they are capable of rising up when needed. Ohio opponents pass the football 48.37% of the time.Opponents typically have some form of run/pass balance against them.

This is a pushover defense. There is not enough push from the Defensive Line and not enough imagination from the Defensive Coordinator to cause chaos in the backfield.Opponent rushing yards attributed to their offensive line this season comes out to 3.13 yards per carry. This defense lets offensive lines have too much control over them on the ground, too much push from the opposing offensive line. This is also a team that is allowing running backs and quarterbacks to get to the second-level in an average fashion. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to give up big rushing plays.

This is not a disruptive Defense and they get pushed over way too easily. Perhaps they are too vanilla with playcalling. This front seven is simply unable to make an impact, something must change or else the problems will repeat. Ohio has shown themselves to be better at stopping the pass than the run this season.

Ohio Team Offense Preview

Ohio has had 23 drives in non-garbage time minutes and they average 4.52 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, Ohio is not a team that runs many plays per drive. The offense is either prone to faltering and struggles to notch first downs or extremely explosive, we will need to find out a bit more to get answers. Struggles to get ahead of the chains and convert on third and fourth down are common, the offense can stagnate. Ohio passes the football 44.23% of the time.They favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

Move the pile forward, falling forward, making progress, ensuring north-south running, smart Quarterback reads, well-adjusted alignments to ensure leverage, and an offensive line that is getting a great push forward are cornerstones of this offense. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. Ohio can take credit for 2.85 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average offensive line as far as their ability to set up the running game. This is also a team that is getting to the second-level in an average fashion. Offensive line and running backs are average in this regard. They feature a relatively average explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play, but it is not something to count on from them.

Ohio has bullied and controlled defenses this season, defenses have not been able to dictate what this offense is able to do to them. Opponents should consider a containment strategy. Ohio is among the best in the country at keeping defensive front sevens at bay. Opposing defenses need their secondary players to step up and cause trouble in order for this Offense to be disrupted. Ohio has shown themselves to be a better running team than passing team this season.

The Bowling Green Roster

The Players to Watch for Bowling Green

Matt McDonald QB 6-3 214

This season, Matt McDonald has put up 452 yards and 0 touchdowns. He has thrown 3 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 81.8thus far this season. Matt McDonald has thrown 3 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Matt McDonald has 26.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 55.41 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 18.0 times this season, which puts him in the 57.05 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 1.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Terion Stewart RB 5-8 210

This season, Terion Stewart has 204 rushing yards on 23 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 4 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Terion Stewart picked up 3 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 1 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Julian Ortega-Jones WR 6-2 206

This season, Julian Ortega-Jones picked up 133 yards. He caught the ball 10 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Roland Walder DL 6-3 250

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Bowling Green, Roland Walder has 12 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 2 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 68.37 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 1 times this season, which put him in the 70.17 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Caleb Biggers DB 5-11 192.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Bowling Green, Caleb Biggers had 19 tackles which puts him in the 66.76 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 1 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 75.36 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Caleb Biggers as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 39.16 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

The Ohio Roster

The Players to Watch for Ohio

Kurtis Rourke QB 6-3 211

This season, Kurtis Rourke has put up 323 yards and 2 touchdowns. He has thrown 0 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 162.8thus far this season. Kurtis Rourke has thrown 0 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Kurtis Rourke has -26.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 6.72 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 11.0 times this season, which puts him in the 44.92 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 0.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

De’Montre Tuggle RB 5-10 198

This season, De’Montre Tuggle has 218 rushing yards on 38 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 3 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, De’Montre Tuggle picked up 2 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 1 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Isiah Cox WR 5-11 180

This season, Isiah Cox picked up 129 yards. He caught the ball 6 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.

Jeremiah Burton DT 6-1 268

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Ohio, Jeremiah Burton has 7 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 1 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 59.39 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 1 times this season, which put him in the 77.7 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Austin Conrad DE 6-2 245

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Ohio, Austin Conrad has 13 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 2 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 68.37 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 1 times this season, which put him in the 70.17 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Jamison Collier S 6-1 190.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Ohio, Jamison Collier had 15 tackles which puts him in the 59.72 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 33.65 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Jamison Collier as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 39.16 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Ilyaas Motley CB 5-11 170

Considered the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Ohio, Ilyaas Motley had 8 tackles which puts him in the 48.47 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 35.17 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Ilyaas Motley as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 38.07 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Bowling Green vs. Ohio Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: Bowling Green 15 Ohio 42

Spread Pick: Ohio -24 -103 Pinnacle Sports
Moneyline Pick: Ohio -1395 Heritage
Total Pick: Over 54 -109 Pinnacle Sports