NFL Picks, Predictions, and Previews

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs 1/24/2021 NFL Picks, Prediction, and Preview

The Buffalo Bills visit the Kansas City Chiefs on 1/24/2021 at 6:40PM.

Buffalo and Kansas City face off in a Wild Card Playoff game. Buffalo has a record of 13-3 this season. Kansas City is 14-2 this season. Both have players to meet and know.

Buffalo Team Defense Preview

Buffalo yields 6.2 plays per drive, this defense gives up 33.1 yards per drive, and opponents score 2.22 points per offensive possession. On 39.4% of defensive possessions, opponents find a way to come away with points, but on 15.3% of defensive possessions, they force opponents to cough up the ball. Defensive possessions start on average at opponent’s Own 26.6 and these drives typically last 2:39.

This defense holds opposing quarterbacks to a Quarterback Rating (QBR) of 86.9 and 2.6% of passes thrown are passes that are intercepted.Buffalo has caused a sack rate of 6.2% this season.

Examining Buffalo in a few key defensive situations would be helpful in making judgments. They have encountered 191 opponent third down attempts this season and opponents successfully turned the third down attempt into a first down 76 times, which works itself out to a conversion rate of 39.8%. Fourth Down situations are extremely consequential. They have taken on opponents in 19 fourth down conversion attempts this season and the opposition have successfully turned the fourth down attempt into a first down 11 times, which works itself out to a conversion rate of 57.9%. Defenses need to prevent possessions from reaching the Red Zone. They have allowed 58 Red Zone entrances this season and their opponents have converted 38 of these attempts into Touchdowns, which comes out to a success rate of 65.5%.

Buffalo Team Offense Preview

Buffalo has run 6.3 plays per drive and they generate 37.3 yards per drive, and this offense puts up 2.80 points per drive. 49.4% of the time on offensive possessions, they will score a Touchdown or convert on a Field Goal Attempt, but on 11.8% of offensive possessions, they find cough the ball up to the opponent. Their possessions start on average at their Own 30.7 and these drives usually take up 2:59 of time.

6.7% of passes thrown are touchdown passes by Buffalo and on 1.8% of passes thrown, it results in an interception. Buffalo has yielded 27 sacks this season and this has resulted in 166 yards lost.

They rushed for 4.2 yards per carry and for 107.7 yards per game. Rushers, Receivers, and Sitting Duck Quarterbacks fumbled the ball 18 times this season.

Let’s get situational with the Buffalo and examine various situations. They have had 187 third down attempts this season and successfully turned the third down attempt into a first down 93 times, which works itself out to a success rate of 49.7%. Fourth Down situations are extremely consequential. They have willingly and unwillingly encountered 10 fourth down conversion attempts this season and have converted 8 of these attempts, which comes out to a success rate of 80.0%. It is critical for offenses to get the ball into the Red Zone. They have had 68 Red Zone entrances this season and successfully turned a Red Zone entrance into an End Zone celebration 42 times, which works itself out to a conversion rate of 61.8%.

Kansas City Team Defense Preview

Kansas City faces 6.2 plays per drive, this defense gives up 33.8 yards per drive, and this defense lets offenses score 2.10 points per drive. 36.1% of the time on defensive possessions, opponents will score a Touchdown or convert on a Field Goal Attempt, but 13.0% of the time, they force opposing offenses to turn the ball over. Their offensive drives start typically at their opponent’s Own 25.8 yard line, they usually take up 2:50 of time.

Opposing quarterbacks have a QBR of 89.4 against Kansas City and on 2.9% of passes thrown, it results in an interception. Kansas City has forced a sack rate of 5.4% this season.

Examining Kansas City in a few key defensive situations would be helpful in making judgments. They have encountered 188 opponent third down attempts this season and opponents successfully turned the third down attempt into a first down 77 times, which works itself out to a conversion rate of 41.0%. There is nothing more pressure-packed than fourth down situations. They have had to wall up against 20 fourth down attempts this season and the opposition have successfully turned the fourth down attempt into a first down 13 times, which works itself out to a success rate of 65.0%. Defenses need to prevent possessions from reaching the Red Zone. They have allowed 47 Red Zone entrances this season and their opponents have converted 36 of these attempts into Touchdowns, which comes out to a success rate of 76.6%.

Kansas City Team Offense Preview

Kansas City has 6.7 plays per drive, this offense averages 40.7 yards per drive, and this offense puts up 2.74 points per drive. 47.9% of the time on offensive possessions, they will score a Touchdown or convert on a Field Goal Attempt, but on 9.2% of offensive possessions, they find cough the ball up to the opponent. Their possessions start on average at their Own 28.2 and these drives typically last 3:00.

On 6.3% of passes thrown, it results in a touchdown and on 1.1% of passes thrown, it results in an interception. Kansas City has given up 24 sacks this season and there were 151 yards lost as a result of the inability to protect the Quarterback.

Kansas City rushed for 4.5 yards per carry and for 112.4 yards per game. This offense coughed up the ball 19 times this season.

Let’s get situational with the Kansas City and examine various situations. They have had 194 third down attempts this season and successfully turned the third down attempt into a first down 95 times, which works itself out to a success rate of 49.0%. Fourth Down situations are extremely consequential. They have willingly and unwillingly encountered 16 fourth down conversion attempts this season and have converted 9 of these attempts, which comes out to a success rate of 56.3%. Offensive possessions that reach the Red Zone have a higher chance of getting in the End Zone. They have had 59 opportunities to score from the Red Zone this season and successfully turned a Red Zone entrance into an End Zone celebration 36 times, which works itself out to a conversion rate of 61.0%.

The Buffalo Roster

The Players to Watch for Buffalo

Josh Allen QB 6-5 237

This season, Josh Allen has put up 4544 yards and 37 touchdowns. He has thrown 10 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 107.2thus far this season. Josh Allen has thrown 10 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Josh Allen has 421 rushing yards, which puts him in the 86.0 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 102 times this season, which puts him in the 94.0 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 8 rushing touchdowns this season.

Devin Singletary RB 5-7 203

This season, Devin Singletary has 687 rushing yards on 156 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 2 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Devin Singletary picked up 269 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 38 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Stefon Diggs WR 6-0 191

This season, Stefon Diggs picked up 1535 yards. He caught the ball 127 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 8 receiving touchdowns this season.

Ed Oliver DT 6-1 287

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Buffalo, Ed Oliver has 23 tackles this season.When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 3 times this season, which put him in the 77.47 among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 1.0 fumbles this season.

Mario Addison DE 6-3 260

The leading tackler among Defensive Ends for Buffalo, Mario Addison has 21 tackles this season.When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 5 times this season, which put him in the 64.88 among all Defensive Ends in College Football. He has forced nan fumbles this season.

Jordan Poyer SS 6-0 191

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Buffalo, Jordan Poyer had 91 tackles which puts him in the 100.0 percentile among non-exclusive Defensive Backs. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 2 times this season. Jordan Poyer as a ball hawker was able to pick off 2.0 passes this season, which puts him in the 72.35 percentile among secondary position players this season.

Taron Johnson CB 5-11 192

Considered the leading tackler among Cornerbacks for Buffalo, Taron Johnson had 70 tackles which puts him in the 98.85 percentile among Corners. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 1 times this season. Taron Johnson as a ball hawker was able to pick off 1.0 passes this season, which puts him in the 53.72 percentile among Corners this season.

The Kansas City Roster

The Players to Watch for Kansas City

Patrick Mahomes QB 6-3 230

This season, Patrick Mahomes has put up 4740 yards and 38 touchdowns. He has thrown 6 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 108.2thus far this season. Patrick Mahomes has thrown 6 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Patrick Mahomes has 308 rushing yards, which puts him in the 82.0 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 62 times this season, which puts him in the 82.0 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 2 rushing touchdowns this season.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB 5-7 207

This season, Clyde Edwards-Helaire has 803 rushing yards on 181 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 4 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Clyde Edwards-Helaire picked up 297 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 36 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.

Tyreek Hill WR 5-10 185

This season, Tyreek Hill picked up 1276 yards. He caught the ball 87 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 15 receiving touchdowns this season.

Chris Jones DT 6-6 310

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Kansas City, Chris Jones has 23 tackles this season.When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 8 times this season, which put him in the 96.7 among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 2.0 fumbles this season.

Frank Clark DE 6-3 260

The leading tackler among Defensive Ends for Kansas City, Frank Clark has 21 tackles this season.When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 6 times this season, which put him in the 73.81 among all Defensive Ends in College Football. He has forced 0.0 fumbles this season.

Daniel Sorensen FS 6-2 208

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Kansas City, Daniel Sorensen had 68 tackles which puts him in the 89.47 percentile among non-exclusive Defensive Backs. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 0 times this season. Daniel Sorensen as a ball hawker was able to pick off 3.0 passes this season, which puts him in the 88.24 percentile among secondary position players this season.

Charvarius Ward CB 6-1 196

Considered the leading tackler among Cornerbacks for Kansas City, Charvarius Ward had 38 tackles which puts him in the 62.6 percentile among Corners. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 1 times this season. Charvarius Ward as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0.0 passes this season, which puts him in the 19.83 percentile among Corners this season.

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: Buffalo Bills 25 Kansas City Chiefs 27

Spread Pick: Buffalo +3.5 -115 Bodog
Moneyline Pick: Kansas City -162 SportsInteraction
Total Pick: Under 54.5 -108 Heritage