College Football Picks, Predictions, and Previews: The Way It Oughtta Be

Colorado State vs. Boise State 11/12/2020 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

The Colorado State visits Boise State on 11/12/2020 at 8:00PM.

Colorado State and Boise State face off in an important game for both teams as every game in this shortened season with limited or no fans in attendance means more. Colorado State has a record of 1-1 this season. Boise State is 2-1 this season. Both have players to meet and know.

Colorado State Team Defense Preview

Colorado State has had 26 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 5.85 plays per drive. Colorado State lets opponents run a lot of plays per drive and in the Fourth Quarter, this team could be gassed. Colorado State has a generally average defense. Nothing too special about it, but they are capable of rising up when needed. Passing plays make up 50.00% of their opponents’ play calls.Opponents typically have some form of run/pass balance against them.

Colorado State opponents have struggled with running the ball and this defense has crushed the spirits of their opponents with zero or negative yard plays. 4th and Short is not a cake walk against this defense, maybe passing on 4th and Short or having some sort of RPO is the way to go here because if an Offensive Coordinator thinks that they can just line and run a Quarterback Sneak or hand it off to a tailback, they are mistaken. How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? Colorado State can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 2.3 yards per carry. Opponent offensive lines have been simply unable to support their running games against this defense. When it comes to getting to that second level, running backs are getting stopped. This defense does not allow themselves to be gashed. Opponents have shown a relatively average level of explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play against them.

This Defense has had average success disrupting the flow of the opposing offense.. Colorado State should have a sign ready for opponents near the Visitor Locker Room that says “Welcome to Hell”, this front seven is deep and they cause a lot of problems. Colorado State is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

Colorado State Team Offense Preview

Colorado State has had 24 total drives this season and they generate 4.83 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, Colorado State is not a team that runs many plays per drive. The offense is either prone to faltering and struggles to notch first downs or extremely explosive, we will need to find out a bit more to get answers. Struggles to get ahead of the chains and convert on third and fourth down are common, the offense can stagnate. Colorado State passes the football 45.69% of the time.Relatively speaking, this is a team that favors run/pass balance.

Colorado State is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to avoid negative yardage plays on the ground. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. Colorado State can take credit for 2.53 yards per carry. So what does this mean? It means that the offensive line has been incredibly disappointing in their contribution to the ground game. When it comes to getting to that second level where linebackers have not crashed down on the line of scrimmage, they are getting stopped with ease. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to bust out big rushing plays.

Defenses have had average success disrupting the flow of the Colorado State Offense. Front sevens of opposing defenses are causing a lot of problems. Colorado State is a better passing team than running team this season.

Boise State Team Defense Preview

Boise State has had 30 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 5.77 plays per drive. Boise State lets opponents run a lot of plays per drive and in the Fourth Quarter, this team could be gassed. Boise State has a generally average defense. Nothing too special about it, but they are capable of rising up when needed. Passing plays make up 31.79% of their opponents’ play calls.Their opponents favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

Defenses want to stop offenses from getting into a 3rd Down where the options are plentiful. Unfortunately, this defense is too porous to limit those choices. Opponent rushing yards attributed to their offensive line this season comes out to 3.46 yards per carry. Sorry to say this about this front seven, but the best way to make an average offensive line look good is for them to face this horrid front seven. This is also a team that is allowing running backs and quarterbacks to get to the second-level in an average fashion. They are capable of giving up a long run, which is really demoralizing when the opposing team has the ball deep in their own territory.

This is not a disruptive Defense and they get pushed over way too easily. Perhaps they are too vanilla with playcalling. This front seven is simply unable to make an impact, something must change or else the problems will repeat. Boise State has shown themselves to be better at stopping the pass than the run this season.

Boise State Team Offense Preview

Boise State has had 28 drives in non-garbage time minutes and they average 5.54 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive they run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Any defense is in for a challenge with Boise State, given their ability to accrue more than 5 yards on 1st Downs and their ability to convert on 3rd and 4th Downs. They put a lot of pressure on opposing defenses.Boise State passes the football 51.61% of the time.Relatively speaking, this is a team that favors run/pass balance.

Move the pile forward, falling forward, making progress, ensuring north-south running, smart Quarterback reads, well-adjusted alignments to ensure leverage, and an offensive line that is getting a great push forward are cornerstones of this offense. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. Boise State can take credit for 3.43 yards per carry. This is an elite offensive line when it comes to generating a push for the running game. They know how to create creases for running backs to break loose. Playing 7 in a box may not be enough for opposing defenses, this is a great O-Line. This is a team that is rather above-average when it comes to gashing defenses. The threat of the run should force opposing to play more honest and assignment defensive football is a must. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to bust out big rushing plays.

Boise State has bullied and controlled defenses this season, defenses have not been able to dictate what this offense is able to do to them. Opponents should consider a containment strategy. Boise State is among the best in the country at keeping defensive front sevens at bay. Opposing defenses need their secondary players to step up and cause trouble in order for this Offense to be disrupted. Boise State is a better passing team than running team this season.

The Colorado State Roster

The Players to Watch for Colorado State

Patrick O’Brien QB 6-5 235

This season, Patrick O’Brien has put up 337 yards and 3 touchdowns. He has thrown 0 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 175.6thus far this season. Patrick O’Brien has thrown 0 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Patrick O’Brien has 4.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 35.25 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 11.0 times this season, which puts him in the 51.44 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 1.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Marcus McElroy RB 6-0 235

This season, Marcus McElroy has 55 rushing yards on 28 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 1 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Marcus McElroy picked up 12 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 1 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Dante Wright WR 5-9 180

This season, Dante Wright picked up 146 yards. He caught the ball 10 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Manny Jones DL 6-4 280

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Colorado State, Manny Jones has 10 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 5 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 93.45 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 2 times this season, which put him in the 85.91 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Marshaun Cameron DB 5-9 190

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Colorado State, Marshaun Cameron had 19 tackles which puts him in the 73.52 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 1 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 77.7 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 1 times last season. Marshaun Cameron as a ball hawker was able to pick off 1 passes last season, which puts him in the 87.29 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

The Boise State Roster

The Players to Watch for Boise State

Jack Sears QB 6-2 219

This season, Jack Sears has put up 332 yards and 3 touchdowns. He has thrown 0 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 225.1thus far this season. Jack Sears has thrown 0 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Jack Sears has 38.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 61.69 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 9.0 times this season, which puts him in the 45.86 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 1.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Andrew Van Buren RB 6-0 228

This season, Andrew Van Buren has 136 rushing yards on 35 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 3 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Andrew Van Buren picked up 22 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 5 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Khalil Shakir WR 6-0 190

This season, Khalil Shakir picked up 352 yards. He caught the ball 23 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 4 receiving touchdowns this season.

Keeghan Freeborn NT 6-1 317

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Boise State, Keeghan Freeborn has 14 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 0 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 27.34 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 0 times this season, which put him in the 35.42 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Shane Irwin DE 6-3 254

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Boise State, Shane Irwin has 15 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 2 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 71.52 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 1 times this season, which put him in the 72.51 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Kekaula Kaniho S 5-10 177

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Boise State, Kekaula Kaniho had 10 tackles which puts him in the 54.53 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 1 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 77.7 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Kekaula Kaniho as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 40.12 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Jalen Walker CB 6-0 181

Considered the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Boise State, Jalen Walker had 15 tackles which puts him in the 74.65 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 37.33 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Jalen Walker as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 38.89 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Colorado State vs. Boise State Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: Colorado State 19 Boise State 37

Spread Pick: Boise State -14 -106 Pinnacle Sports
Moneyline Pick: Boise State -500 5Dimes
Total Pick: Under 62 -110 Will Hill