College Football Picks, Predictions, and Previews: The Way It Oughtta Be

Colorado State vs. New Mexico 10/16/2021 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

Colorado State visits New Mexico on 10/16/2021 at 7:00PM.

Colorado State and New Mexico face off in a regular season matchup. Games are on campuses and crowds are full once again! Colorado State sports a record of 2-3 this season. New Mexico is 2-4 this season. Enough preamble… Let’s get to the preview…



Colorado State Team Defense Preview

Colorado State has had 56 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 4.57 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, Colorado State are not a team that allows many plays per drive. The defense either gives up big plays quickly or induces a lot of three-and-outs, we shall find out more. Third and long situations are common against this season ‘s defense. This is a defense that forces opponents to commit penalties, have compromised offensive line play, and fail to convert on crunch possessions. Passing plays are 55.08% of their opponents’ play calls.They are a team that faces a lot of Air Raid Offenses.

Colorado State opponents have had struggled with running the ball and the defense crushed the spirits of their opponents with zero or negative yard plays. 4th and Short is not a cake walk, maybe passing on 4th and Short or having some sort of RPO is the way to go because if an Offensive Coordinator thinks that they can just line up and run a Quarterback Sneak or hand it off to a tailback against this season ‘s defense, they are mistaken. How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? Colorado State can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 2.34 yards per carry. Opponent offensive lines have had been simply unable to support their running games against their defense. When it comes to getting to that second level, running backs are getting stopped. This defense does not allow themselves to be gashed. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect them to give up big rushing plays.

Disruptive plays are a part of the fabric of this team’s defensive effort. Game changing plays that drive Offensive Coordinators and Quarterbacks crazy, they find ways to deliver. Getting more specific, this front seven is a cause of a lot of headaches for offenses. They may be good enough to cause trouble in pass rush with just four rushers!Colorado State is better at stopping the run than the pass this season .

Colorado State Team Offense Preview

Colorado State has had 57 drives in non-garbage time minutes and they average 5.53 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive they run , but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Struggles to get ahead of the chains and convert on third and fourth down are common, the offense can stagnate. Colorado State passes the football 41.27% of the time.They favors running the ball as opposed airing it out.

Colorado State is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to avoid negative yardage plays on the ground. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 3.07 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average offensive line as far as their ability to set up the running game. This is also a team that is getting to the second-level in an average fashion. Offensive line and running backs are average in this regard. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this season ‘s team to bust out big rushing plays.

Defenses are able to impose their will on the Colorado State Offense this season . Front sevens are causing an average amount of trouble for the Offense. Colorado State is a better running team than passing team this season .

New Mexico Team Defense Preview

New Mexico has had 66 total defensive drives this season and they yield 4.98 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, New Mexico are not a team that allows many plays per drive. The defense either gives up big plays quickly or induces a lot of three-and-outs, we shall find out more. New Mexico has had a generally average defense. Nothing too special about it, but they are capable of rising up when needed. Passing plays are 40.73% of their opponents’ play calls.Their opponents run the ball as opposed airing it out.

New Mexico opponents have had struggled with running the ball and the defense crushed the spirits of their opponents with zero or negative yard plays. 4th and Short is not a cake walk, maybe passing on 4th and Short or having some sort of RPO is the way to go because if an Offensive Coordinator thinks that they can just line up and run a Quarterback Sneak or hand it off to a tailback against this season ‘s defense, they are mistaken. How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? New Mexico can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 2.98 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average defense when it comes to how offensive lines control or fail to control them on the ground. When it comes to getting to that second level, running backs are getting stopped. This defense does not allow themselves to be gashed. Opponents have had shown a relatively average level of explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play against them.

This is not a disruptive Defense and they get pushed over way too easily. Perhaps they are too vanilla with playcalling. Their front seven is simply unable to make an impact, something must change or else the problems will repeat. New Mexico has had shown themselves to be better at stopping the pass than the run this season .

New Mexico Team Offense Preview

New Mexico has had 61 drives in non-garbage time minutes and they average 5.1 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, New Mexico is not a team that runs many plays per drive. The offense is either prone to faltering and struggles to notch first downs or extremely explosive, we will need to find out a bit more to get answers. Struggles to get ahead of the chains and convert on third and fourth down are common, the offense can stagnate. New Mexico passes the football 51.13% of the time.Relatively speaking, this is a team that favors run/pass balance.

New Mexico struggles with running the ball, getting zero or negative yard plays is disspiriting and the offensive line is not effectively making a good push. Poor playcalling, pre-snap adjustments or post-snap reads may be responsible and this could fall on the Quarterback, Offensive Coordinator, and Head Coach. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. New Mexico can take credit for 2.83 yards per carry. So what does this mean? It means that the offensive line has had been incredibly disappointing in their contribution to the ground game. This is also a team that is getting to the second-level in an average fashion. Offensive line and running backs are average in this regard. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this season ‘s team to bust out big rushing plays.

Defenses have had average success disrupting the flow of the New Mexico Offense. Front sevens of opposing defenses are causing a lot of problems. New Mexico is a better running team than passing team this season .

The Colorado State Roster

The Players to Watch for Colorado State

Todd Centeio QB 6’1″ 220 Junior

Todd Centeio put up 1039 yards, tossed 5 touchdowns, and he threw 1 interceptions this season. He threw a variety of different length passes. His average completed pass was 6.5 yards. He was considered one of the most mobile Quarterbacks in the country this season, designed runs and zone read looks are common. His average rush was 3.8 yards.

David Bailey RB 6’0″ 235 Senior

David Bailey had 260 rushing yards on 65 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He had 2 rushing touchdowns. He is considered one of the workhorse running backs of College Football returning this season. His average rush was 4.0 yards. He is a consistent option in the passing game considering that he is a running back. When he catches a pass, he generates on average 4.0 yards.

E.J. Scott WR 6’2″ 200 Junior

E.J. Scott picked up 155 yards through the air. He caught the ball 12 times this season. He reached the end zone 0 times. He was a consistent option in the passing game this season. When he catches a pass, he generates on average 12.9 yards.

Scott Patchan DL 6’6″ 255 Senior

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Colorado State, Scott Patchan, had 25 tackles this season.Among Defensive Tackles/Nose Tackles, he was clogging the gaps and playing disruptive proving he is one of the best at forcing lost yardage, he had 4 tackles for loss this season.He was among the best at disrupting things up the middle and getting to QBs, he had 4 sacks this season.

Jack Howell DB 5’11” 190 Freshman

The leading tackler among Defensive Backs for Colorado State, Jack Howell, had 21 tackles this season.He forced 0 tackles for loss this season.He was among the best at disrupting things up the middle and getting to QBs, he had 1.0 sacks this season.

The New Mexico Roster

The Players to Watch for New Mexico

Terry Wilson QB 6’3″ 202 Senior

Terry Wilson put up 715 yards, tossed 6 touchdowns, and he threw 2 interceptions. He threw a variety of different length passes. His average completed pass was 6.4 yards. He was considered one of the most mobile Quarterbacks in the country this season, designed runs and zone read looks are common. His average rush was 0.0 yards.

Aaron Dumas RB 5’11” 190 Freshman

Aaron Dumas had 284 rushing yards on 57 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He had 0 rushing touchdowns. He is considered one of the workhorse running backs of College Football returning this season. His average rush was 5.0 yards. His contributions as a receiver this season are not worth mentioning.

Emmanuel Logan-Greene WR 5’8″ 160 Senior

Emmanuel Logan-Greene picked up 145 yards through the air. He caught the ball 12 times this season. He reached the end zone 1 times. He was a consistent option in the passing game this season. When he catches a pass, he generates on average 12.1 yards.

Langston Murray DT 6’2″ 304 Junior

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for New Mexico, Langston Murray, had 9 tackles this season.He was a strong force in the interior defense forcing 2 tackles for loss this season.He was a strong pass rusher in the interior this season registering 1 tackles for loss.

Joey Noble DE 6’3″ 236 Senior

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for New Mexico, Joey Noble, had 35 tackles this season.Among Defensive Tackles/Nose Tackles, he was clogging the gaps and playing disruptive proving he is one of the best at forcing lost yardage, he had 8 tackles for loss this season.He was among the best at disrupting things up the middle and getting to QBs, he had 3 sacks this season.

Jerrick Reed II S 5’10” 192 Junior

The leading tackler among Defensive Backs for New Mexico, Jerrick Reed II, had 35 tackles this season.He was effective at tackling receivers on screens with 1 tackles for loss this season.He was among the best at disrupting things up the middle and getting to QBs, he had 1.0 sacks this season.

Donte Martin CB 5’10” 179 Sophomore

The leading tackler among Cornerbacks for New Mexico, Donte Martin, had 17 tackles this season.Among Cornerbacks, he was very active and disruptive in the backfield, he had 1 tackles for loss this season.He had 0.0 pick-offs this season.

Colorado State vs. New Mexico Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: Colorado State 25 New Mexico 23

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