College Football Picks, Predictions, and Previews: The Way It Oughtta Be

Colorado State vs. San Diego State 12/5/2020 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

The Colorado State visits San Diego State on 12/5/2020 at 7:00PM.

Colorado State and San Diego State face off in an important game for both teams as every game in this shortened season with limited or no fans in attendance means more. Colorado State has a record of 1-2 this season. San Diego State is 3-3 this season. Both have players to meet and know.

Colorado State Team Defense Preview

Colorado State has had 32 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 6.06 plays per drive. The struggle is real. Colorado State cannot find a way to get opposing offenses off the field. Three and outs are not common and if the team needs a three-and-out late in a game to get the ball back, it is just not happening.Colorado State has a generally average defense. Nothing too special about it, but they are capable of rising up when needed. Passing plays make up 51.55% of their opponents’ play calls.Colorado State tends to face teams that prefer to air it out or opponents want to air it out against them.

Colorado State opponents have struggled with running the ball and this defense has crushed the spirits of their opponents with zero or negative yard plays. 4th and Short is not a cake walk against this defense, maybe passing on 4th and Short or having some sort of RPO is the way to go here because if an Offensive Coordinator thinks that they can just line and run a Quarterback Sneak or hand it off to a tailback, they are mistaken. How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? Colorado State can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 2.09 yards per carry. Opponent offensive lines have been simply unable to support their running games against this defense. When it comes to getting to that second level, running backs are getting stopped. This defense does not allow themselves to be gashed. Opponents have shown a relatively average level of explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play against them.

Disruptive plays are a part of the fabric of this team’s defensive effort. Game changing plays that drive Offensive Coordinators and Quarterbacks crazy, they find ways to deliver. Colorado State should have a sign ready for opponents near the Visitor Locker Room that says “Welcome to Hell”, this front seven is deep and they cause a lot of problems. Colorado State is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

Colorado State Team Offense Preview

Colorado State has had 36 total drives this season and they generate 4.47 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, Colorado State is not a team that runs many plays per drive. The offense is either prone to faltering and struggles to notch first downs or extremely explosive, we will need to find out a bit more to get answers. Struggles to get ahead of the chains and convert on third and fourth down are common, the offense can stagnate. Passing plays make up 47.20% of their play calls.Relatively speaking, this is a team that favors run/pass balance.

Colorado State is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to avoid negative yardage plays on the ground. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. Colorado State can take credit for 2.54 yards per carry. So what does this mean? It means that the offensive line has been incredibly disappointing in their contribution to the ground game. When it comes to getting to that second level where linebackers have not crashed down on the line of scrimmage, they are getting stopped with ease. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to bust out big rushing plays.

Defenses have been able to impose their will on the Colorado State Offense this season. Front sevens of opposing defenses are causing a lot of problems. Colorado State is a better passing team than running team this season.

San Diego State Team Defense Preview

San Diego State has had 74 total defensive drives this season and they yield 4.85 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, San Diego State is not a team that allows many plays per drive. This defense either gives up big plays quickly or induces a lot of three-and-outs, we shall find out more. Opponents face third and long situations a lot against this defense. This is a defense that forces opponents to commit penalties, have compromised offensive line play, and fail to convert on crunch possessions. San Diego State opponents pass the football 53.20% of the time.San Diego State tends to face teams that prefer to air it out or opponents want to air it out against them.

San Diego State opponents have struggled with running the ball and this defense has crushed the spirits of their opponents with zero or negative yard plays. 4th and Short is not a cake walk against this defense, maybe passing on 4th and Short or having some sort of RPO is the way to go here because if an Offensive Coordinator thinks that they can just line and run a Quarterback Sneak or hand it off to a tailback, they are mistaken. How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? San Diego State can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 2.07 yards per carry. Opponent offensive lines have been simply unable to support their running games against this defense. When it comes to getting to that second level, running backs are getting stopped. This defense does not allow themselves to be gashed. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to give up big rushing plays.

San Diego State has made the turnover belt, chain, pads, lunch pail or whatever gimmick they use change hands a lot. This is a Defense that causes pure aggravation. San Diego State should have a sign ready for opponents near the Visitor Locker Room that says “Welcome to Hell”, this front seven is deep and they cause a lot of problems. San Diego State is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

San Diego State Team Offense Preview

San Diego State has had 70 total drives this season and they generate 5.31 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive they run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Struggles to get ahead of the chains and convert on third and fourth down are common, the offense can stagnate. San Diego State passes the football 41.40% of the time.They favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

San Diego State struggles with running the ball, getting zero or negative yard plays is disspiriting and the offensive line is not effectively making a good push. Poor playcalling, pre-snap adjustments or post-snap reads may be responsible and this could fall on the Quarterback, Offensive Coordinator, and Head Coach. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 2.64 yards per carry. So what does this mean? It means that the offensive line has been incredibly disappointing in their contribution to the ground game. This is also a team that is getting to the second-level in an average fashion. Offensive line and running backs are average in this regard. They have an explosive running game and they are capable of breaking big yardage runs on First and Second Down. This puts a lot of pressure on Linebackers and Safeties.

Defenses have been able to impose their will on the San Diego State Offense this season. Front sevens of opposing defenses are causing a lot of problems. San Diego State has shown themselves to be a better running team than passing team this season.

The Colorado State Roster

The Players to Watch for Colorado State

Patrick O’Brien QB 6-5 235

This season, Patrick O’Brien has put up 477 yards and 3 touchdowns. He has thrown 1 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 146.4thus far this season. Patrick O’Brien has thrown 1 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Patrick O’Brien has 4.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 30.95 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 17.0 times this season, which puts him in the 53.02 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 2.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Marcus McElroy RB 6-0 235

This season, Marcus McElroy has 60 rushing yards on 31 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 1 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Marcus McElroy picked up 12 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 1 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Dante Wright WR 5-9 180

This season, Dante Wright picked up 255 yards. He caught the ball 15 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Scott Patchan DL 6-6 255

The leading tackler among Defensive Ends for Colorado State, Scott Patchan has 15 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 6 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 92.0 percentile among Defensive Ends. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 4 times this season, which put him in the 94.33 percentile among all Defensive Ends in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Marshaun Cameron DB 5-9 190.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Colorado State, Marshaun Cameron had 22 tackles which puts him in the 69.09 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 2 tackles for loss this season, which puts him in the 87.65 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 1 times this season. Marshaun Cameron as a ball hawker was able to pick off 1 passes this season, which puts him in the 84.5 percentile among returning secondary position players this season.

The San Diego State Roster

The Players to Watch for San Diego State

Carson Baker QB 6-3 210

This season, Carson Baker has put up 617 yards and 3 touchdowns. He has thrown 3 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 109.3thus far this season. Carson Baker has thrown 3 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Carson Baker has 1.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 27.14 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 25.0 times this season, which puts him in the 65.87 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 1.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Greg Bell RB 6-0 200

This season, Greg Bell has 565 rushing yards on 94 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 6 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Greg Bell picked up 72 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 9 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.

Jesse Matthews WR 6-0 190

This season, Jesse Matthews picked up 266 yards. He caught the ball 17 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Cameron Thomas DL 6-5 265

The leading tackler among Defensive Ends for San Diego State, Cameron Thomas has 22 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 5 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 88.36 percentile among Defensive Ends. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 2 times this season, which put him in the 82.48 percentile among all Defensive Ends in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Tariq Thompson S 6-0 210.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for San Diego State, Tariq Thompson had 35 tackles which puts him in the 87.92 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 2 tackles for loss this season, which puts him in the 87.65 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 0 times this season. Tariq Thompson as a ball hawker was able to pick off 1 passes this season, which puts him in the 84.5 percentile among returning secondary position players this season.

Darren Hall CB 6-0 190

Considered the leading tackler among Cornerbacks for San Diego State, Darren Hall had 27 tackles which puts him in the 90.91 percentile among Corners. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 2 tackles for loss this season, which puts him in the 92.38 percentile among Corners. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 0 times this season. Darren Hall as a ball hawker was able to pick off 2 passes this season, which puts him in the 94.13 percentile among Corners this season.

Colorado State vs. San Diego State Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: Colorado State 13 San Diego State 22

Spread Pick: San Diego State -7.5 -104 Pinnacle Sports
Moneyline Pick: San Diego State -280 5Dimes
Total Pick: Under 48 -116 Bookmaker