College Football Picks, Predictions, and Previews: The Way It Oughtta Be

Duke vs. Florida State 12/12/2020 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

The Duke visits Florida State on 12/12/2020 at 4:00PM.

Duke and Florida State face off in an important game for both teams as every game in this shortened season with limited or no fans in attendance means more. Duke has a record of 2-8 this season. Florida State is 2-6 this season. Both have players to meet and know.

Duke Team Defense Preview

Duke has had 115 total defensive drives this season and they yield 4.89 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, Duke is not a team that allows many plays per drive. This defense either gives up big plays quickly or induces a lot of three-and-outs, we shall find out more. Duke has a generally average defense. Nothing too special about it, but they are capable of rising up when needed. Duke opponents pass the football 47.86% of the time.Opponents typically have some form of run/pass balance against them.

Defenses want to stop offenses from getting into a 3rd Down where the options are plentiful. Unfortunately, this defense is too porous to limit those choices. How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? Duke can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 3.26 yards per carry. Sorry to say this about this front seven, but the best way to make an average offensive line look good is for them to face this horrid front seven. This is a team that is getting gashed too much for the tastes of their base. Linebackers are not stopping the bleeding well enough. Long breakout runs against this Defense are far too common. This is a very porous rushing defense that is incapable of preventing a situation where their safeties chase down a running back or quarterback.

This Defense has had average success disrupting the flow of the opposing offense.. Getting more specific, this front seven is a cause of a lot of headaches for offenses. They may be good enough to cause trouble in pass rush with just four rushers!Duke has shown themselves to be better at stopping the pass than the run this season.

Duke Team Offense Preview

Duke has had 116 drives in non-garbage time minutes and they average 5.11 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, Duke is not a team that runs many plays per drive. The offense is either prone to faltering and struggles to notch first downs or extremely explosive, we will need to find out a bit more to get answers. Struggles to get ahead of the chains and convert on third and fourth down are common, the offense can stagnate. Passing plays make up 52.61% of their play calls.Duke tends to pass more than other teams.

Duke is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to avoid negative yardage plays on the ground. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 2.61 yards per carry. So what does this mean? It means that the offensive line has been incredibly disappointing in their contribution to the ground game. When it comes to getting to that second level where linebackers have not crashed down on the line of scrimmage, they are getting stopped with ease. They are capable of busting out a long run, which is really good when the team has the ball in their own territory.

Defenses have been able to impose their will on the Duke Offense this season. Front sevens of opposing defenses are causing a lot of problems. Duke has shown themselves to be a better running team than passing team this season.

Florida State Team Defense Preview

Florida State has had 89 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 5.74 plays per drive. Florida State lets opponents run a lot of plays per drive and in the Fourth Quarter, this team could be gassed. Offensives should lick their lips given their inability to stop anyone, this is one of the worst defenses in the country. The Defensive Coordinator coaching search threads on Florida State message boards are flights of fantasy. Passing plays make up 48.92% of their opponents’ play calls.Opponents typically have some form of run/pass balance against them.

Florida State is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to create negative yardage plays on the ground. How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? Florida State can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 3.06 yards per carry. This defense lets offensive lines have too much control over them on the ground, too much push from the opposing offensive line. Running backs should look forward to this porous defense filled with poor tacklers who take terrible angles. They are capable of giving up a long run, which is really demoralizing when the opposing team has the ball deep in their own territory.

This is not a disruptive Defense and they get pushed over way too easily. Perhaps they are too vanilla with playcalling. This front seven is simply unable to make an impact, something must change or else the problems will repeat. Florida State is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

Florida State Team Offense Preview

Florida State has had 89 total drives this season and they generate 5.61 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive they run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Florida State is an average offense when it comes to staying ahead of the chains, getting into 3rd and Short scenarios, and converting on 3rd and 4th Down. Passing plays make up 50.30% of their play calls.Relatively speaking, this is a team that favors run/pass balance.

On first downs, getting ahead of the chains is crucial and running the ball well on first down can get a team there, Florida State has done a good job avoiding the negative yardage rushing plays. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. Florida State can take credit for 3.25 yards per carry. This offensive line may be underappreciated, even though the running backs get the attention. The Florida State coaching staff really deserves credit for how they prepared this offensive line, but they could be a little bit better! The offensive line and running back corps deserve a lot of credit for gashing defenses with their running game like the way they have this season. They are capable of busting out a long run, which is really good when the team has the ball in their own territory.

Defenses have been able to impose their will on the Florida State Offense this season. Front sevens of opposing defenses are causing a lot of problems. Florida State has shown themselves to be a better running team than passing team this season.

The Duke Roster

The Players to Watch for Duke

Chase Brice QB 6-2 235

This season, Chase Brice has put up 2081 yards and 9 touchdowns. He has thrown 13 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 108.8thus far this season. Chase Brice has thrown 13 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Chase Brice has 63.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 66.51 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 85.0 times this season, which puts him in the 93.36 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 1.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Mataeo Durant RB 6-1 195

This season, Mataeo Durant has 690 rushing yards on 107 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 7 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Mataeo Durant picked up 107 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 12 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.

Jake Bobo WR 6-4 215

This season, Jake Bobo picked up 349 yards. He caught the ball 31 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.

Derrick Tangelo DT 6-2 310

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Duke, Derrick Tangelo has 34 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 4 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 89.01 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 2 times this season, which put him in the 89.24 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 3 fumbles this season.

Chris Rumph II DE 6-3 235.0

The leading tackler among Defensive Ends for Duke, Chris Rumph II has 47 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 12 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 98.83 percentile among Defensive Ends. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 8 times this season, which put him in the 99.49 percentile among all Defensive Ends in College Football. He has forced 1 fumbles this season.

Marquis Waters S 6-0 200.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Duke, Marquis Waters had 66 tackles which puts him in the 98.6 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 7 tackles for loss this season, which puts him in the 99.45 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 1 times this season. Marquis Waters as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes this season, which puts him in the 37.97 percentile among returning secondary position players this season.

Jeremiah Lewis CB 6-0 190

Considered the leading tackler among Cornerbacks for Duke, Jeremiah Lewis had 40 tackles which puts him in the 97.03 percentile among Corners. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 3 tackles for loss this season, which puts him in the 97.73 percentile among Corners. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 0 times this season. Jeremiah Lewis as a ball hawker was able to pick off 2 passes this season, which puts him in the 93.48 percentile among Corners this season.

The Florida State Roster

The Players to Watch for Florida State

Jordan Travis QB 6-1 200

This season, Jordan Travis has put up 864 yards and 4 touchdowns. He has thrown 5 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 119.3thus far this season. Jordan Travis has thrown 5 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Jordan Travis has 472.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 97.22 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 85.0 times this season, which puts him in the 93.36 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 6.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

La’Damian Webb RB 5-8 190

This season, La’Damian Webb has 366 rushing yards on 69 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 3 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, La’Damian Webb picked up 68 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 9 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Ontaria Wilson WR 6-0 174

This season, Ontaria Wilson picked up 341 yards. He caught the ball 29 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 2 receiving touchdowns this season.

Marvin Wilson DT 6-5 305

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Florida State, Marvin Wilson has 17 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 2 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 69.96 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 1 times this season, which put him in the 74.66 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Janarius Robinson DE 6-5 260.0

The leading tackler among Defensive Ends for Florida State, Janarius Robinson has 21 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 7 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 93.64 percentile among Defensive Ends. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 3 times this season, which put him in the 89.57 percentile among all Defensive Ends in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Asante Samuel Jr. DB 5-10 184.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Florida State, Asante Samuel Jr. had 30 tackles which puts him in the 78.19 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 1 tackles for loss this season, which puts him in the 71.77 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 0 times this season. Asante Samuel Jr. as a ball hawker was able to pick off 3 passes this season, which puts him in the 98.17 percentile among returning secondary position players this season.

Duke vs. Florida State Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: Duke 24 Florida State 25

Spread Pick: Duke +5 -110 Bookmaker
Moneyline Pick: Florida State -185 5Dimes
Total Pick: Under 57.5 -110 JazzSports