College Football Picks, Predictions, and Previews: The Way It Oughtta Be

East Carolina vs. Cincinnati 11/13/2020 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

The East Carolina visits Cincinnati on 11/13/2020 at 7:30PM.

East Carolina and Cincinnati face off in an important game for both teams as every game in this shortened season with limited or no fans in attendance means more. East Carolina has a record of 1-5 this season. Cincinnati is 6-0 this season. Both have players to meet and know.

East Carolina Team Defense Preview

East Carolina has had 66 total defensive drives this season and they yield 5.17 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive opponents run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. East Carolina has shown an inability to stop defenses from converting on 4th Downs and they let opponents get into manageable 3rd Down situations where an RPO may be especially deadly. Passing plays make up 43.11% of their opponents’ play calls.Their opponents favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

Defenses want to stop offenses from getting into a 3rd Down where the options are plentiful. Unfortunately, this defense is too porous to limit those choices. How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? East Carolina can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 3.27 yards per carry. Sorry to say this about this front seven, but the best way to make an average offensive line look good is for them to face this horrid front seven. This is a team that is getting gashed too much for the tastes of their base. Linebackers are not stopping the bleeding well enough. They are capable of giving up a long run, which is really demoralizing when the opposing team has the ball deep in their own territory.

Disruptive plays are a part of the fabric of this team’s defensive effort. Game changing plays that drive Offensive Coordinators and Quarterbacks crazy, they find ways to deliver. Getting more granual into the front seven and their ability to cause trouble, they are just average in this regard. East Carolina is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

East Carolina Team Offense Preview

East Carolina has had 70 total drives this season and they generate 4.61 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, East Carolina is not a team that runs many plays per drive. The offense is either prone to faltering and struggles to notch first downs or extremely explosive, we will need to find out a bit more to get answers. Struggles to get ahead of the chains and convert on third and fourth down are common, the offense can stagnate. East Carolina passes the football 58.82% of the time.This is an Air Raid Offense team, they are going to pass the ball a lot and running plays are only used to keep opponents honest.

East Carolina struggles with running the ball, getting zero or negative yard plays is disspiriting and the offensive line is not effectively making a good push. Poor playcalling, pre-snap adjustments or post-snap reads may be responsible and this could fall on the Quarterback, Offensive Coordinator, and Head Coach. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. East Carolina can take credit for 2.27 yards per carry. So what does this mean? It means that the offensive line has been incredibly disappointing in their contribution to the ground game. This is also a team that is getting to the second-level in an average fashion. Offensive line and running backs are average in this regard. They feature a relatively average explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play, but it is not something to count on from them.

Defenses have been able to impose their will on the East Carolina Offense this season. Front sevens of opposing defenses are causing a lot of problems. East Carolina is a better passing team than running team this season.

Cincinnati Team Defense Preview

Cincinnati has had 61 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 5.59 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive opponents run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Opponents face third and long situations a lot against this defense. This is a defense that forces opponents to commit penalties, have compromised offensive line play, and fail to convert on crunch possessions. Passing plays make up 53.96% of their opponents’ play calls.Cincinnati tends to face teams that prefer to air it out or opponents want to air it out against them.

Cincinnati opponents have struggled with running the ball and this defense has crushed the spirits of their opponents with zero or negative yard plays. 4th and Short is not a cake walk against this defense, maybe passing on 4th and Short or having some sort of RPO is the way to go here because if an Offensive Coordinator thinks that they can just line and run a Quarterback Sneak or hand it off to a tailback, they are mistaken. Opponent rushing yards attributed to their offensive line this season comes out to 2.31 yards per carry. Opponent offensive lines have been simply unable to support their running games against this defense. When it comes to getting to that second level, running backs are getting stopped. This defense does not allow themselves to be gashed. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to give up big rushing plays.

Cincinnati has made the turnover belt, chain, pads, lunch pail or whatever gimmick they use change hands a lot. This is a Defense that causes pure aggravation. Getting more specific, this front seven is a cause of a lot of headaches for offenses. They may be good enough to cause trouble in pass rush with just four rushers!Cincinnati has shown themselves to be better at stopping the pass than the run this season.

Cincinnati Team Offense Preview

Cincinnati has had 63 total drives this season and they generate 5.27 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive they run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Cincinnati has shown a capability to be explosive on first and second down to avoid third downs and has converted well (relatively) on 3rd and 4th Down situations. Passing plays make up 44.28% of their play calls.They favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

Cincinnati is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to avoid negative yardage plays on the ground. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 3.08 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average offensive line as far as their ability to set up the running game. This is a team that is rather above-average when it comes to gashing defenses. The threat of the run should force opposing to play more honest and assignment defensive football is a must. They have an explosive running game and they are capable of breaking big yardage runs on First and Second Down. This puts a lot of pressure on Linebackers and Safeties.

Defenses have had trouble making big, disruptive plays against Cincinnati this season. There has been a relatively good job done by this Offensive Line to prevent opposing front sevens from causing problems consistently. Cincinnati is a better passing team than running team this season.

The East Carolina Roster

The Players to Watch for East Carolina

Holton Ahlers QB 6-3 228

This season, Holton Ahlers has put up 1354 yards and 12 touchdowns. He has thrown 5 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 135.5thus far this season. Holton Ahlers has thrown 5 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Holton Ahlers has 56.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 69.06 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 34.0 times this season, which puts him in the 79.32 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 0.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Rahjai Harris RB 5-10 228

This season, Rahjai Harris has 475 rushing yards on 91 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 3 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Rahjai Harris picked up 14 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 4 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.

Blake Proehl WR 6-1 186

This season, Blake Proehl picked up 395 yards. He caught the ball 38 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 2 receiving touchdowns this season.

Xavier McIver DT 6-1 310

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for East Carolina, Xavier McIver has 3 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 0 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 27.34 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 0 times this season, which put him in the 35.42 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Rick D’Abreu DL 6-2 253

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for East Carolina, Rick D’Abreu has 17 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 2 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 71.52 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 0 times this season, which put him in the 32.98 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 1 fumbles this season.

Jireh Wilson DB 6-3 201

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for East Carolina, Jireh Wilson had 45 tackles which puts him in the 97.76 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 6 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 99.71 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 4 times last season. Jireh Wilson as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 40.12 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

The Cincinnati Roster

The Players to Watch for Cincinnati

Desmond Ridder QB 6-4 215

This season, Desmond Ridder has put up 1156 yards and 11 touchdowns. He has thrown 6 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 144.3thus far this season. Desmond Ridder has thrown 6 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Desmond Ridder has 394.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 97.84 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 45.0 times this season, which puts him in the 86.33 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 8.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Gerrid Doaks RB 6-0 230

This season, Gerrid Doaks has 511 rushing yards on 96 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 7 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Gerrid Doaks picked up 166 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 11 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 2 receiving touchdowns this season.

Jayson Jackson WR 5-10 175

This season, Jayson Jackson picked up 212 yards. He caught the ball 13 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Elijah Ponder DT 6-3 275

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Cincinnati, Elijah Ponder has 17 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 2 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 78.12 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 0 times this season, which put him in the 35.42 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Myjai Sanders DE 6-5 258

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Cincinnati, Myjai Sanders has 23 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 8 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 98.3 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 5 times this season, which put him in the 98.6 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

James Wiggins S 6-0 205

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Cincinnati, James Wiggins had 21 tackles which puts him in the 77.6 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 1 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 77.7 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 1 times last season. James Wiggins as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 40.12 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Coby Bryant CB 6-1 198

Considered the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Cincinnati, Coby Bryant had 21 tackles which puts him in the 89.93 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 1 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 81.77 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Coby Bryant as a ball hawker was able to pick off 2 passes last season, which puts him in the 94.97 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

East Carolina vs. Cincinnati Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: East Carolina 13 Cincinnati 40

Spread Pick: No Action
Moneyline Pick: Cincinnati -1938 SportsInteraction
Total Pick: Under 56 -110 bet365