College Football Picks, Predictions, and Previews: The Way It Oughtta Be

Florida Atlantic vs. Southern Miss 12/10/2020 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

The Florida Atlantic visits Southern Miss on 12/10/2020 at 6:30PM.

Florida Atlantic and Southern Miss face off in an important game for both teams as every game in this shortened season with limited or no fans in attendance means more. Florida Atlantic has a record of 5-2 this season. Southern Miss is 2-7 this season. Both have players to meet and know.

Florida Atlantic Team Defense Preview

Florida Atlantic has had 68 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 5.57 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive opponents run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Opponents face third and long situations a lot against this defense. This is a defense that forces opponents to commit penalties, have compromised offensive line play, and fail to convert on crunch possessions. Florida Atlantic opponents pass the football 48.81% of the time.Opponents typically have some form of run/pass balance against them.

Florida Atlantic is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to create negative yardage plays on the ground. Opponent rushing yards attributed to their offensive line this season comes out to 2.9 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average defense when it comes to how offensive lines control or fail to control them on the ground. This is also a team that is allowing running backs and quarterbacks to get to the second-level in an average fashion. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to give up big rushing plays.

Florida Atlantic has made the turnover belt, chain, pads, lunch pail or whatever gimmick they use change hands a lot. This is a Defense that causes pure aggravation. Florida Atlantic should have a sign ready for opponents near the Visitor Locker Room that says “Welcome to Hell”, this front seven is deep and they cause a lot of problems. Florida Atlantic is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

Florida Atlantic Team Offense Preview

Florida Atlantic has had 68 total drives this season and they generate 5.29 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive they run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Struggles to get ahead of the chains and convert on third and fourth down are common, the offense can stagnate. Passing plays make up 42.50% of their play calls.They favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

Florida Atlantic struggles with running the ball, getting zero or negative yard plays is disspiriting and the offensive line is not effectively making a good push. Poor playcalling, pre-snap adjustments or post-snap reads may be responsible and this could fall on the Quarterback, Offensive Coordinator, and Head Coach. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. Florida Atlantic can take credit for 2.67 yards per carry. So what does this mean? It means that the offensive line has been incredibly disappointing in their contribution to the ground game. This is also a team that is getting to the second-level in an average fashion. Offensive line and running backs are average in this regard. They have an explosive running game and they are capable of breaking big yardage runs on First and Second Down. This puts a lot of pressure on Linebackers and Safeties.

Defenses have been able to impose their will on the Florida Atlantic Offense this season. Front sevens of opposing defenses are causing a lot of problems. Florida Atlantic is a better passing team than running team this season.

Southern Miss Team Defense Preview

Southern Miss has had 100 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 5.78 plays per drive. Southern Miss lets opponents run a lot of plays per drive and in the Fourth Quarter, this team could be gassed. Southern Miss has a generally average defense. Nothing too special about it, but they are capable of rising up when needed. Southern Miss opponents pass the football 45.50% of the time.Their opponents favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

Defenses want to stop offenses from getting into a 3rd Down where the options are plentiful. Unfortunately, this defense is too porous to limit those choices. Opponent rushing yards attributed to their offensive line this season comes out to 3.02 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average defense when it comes to how offensive lines control or fail to control them on the ground. When it comes to getting to that second level, running backs are getting stopped. This defense does not allow themselves to be gashed. Opponents have shown a relatively average level of explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play against them.

This is not a disruptive Defense and they get pushed over way too easily. Perhaps they are too vanilla with playcalling. This front seven is simply unable to make an impact, something must change or else the problems will repeat. Southern Miss is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

Southern Miss Team Offense Preview

Southern Miss has had 100 drives in non-garbage time minutes and they average 5.35 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive they run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Struggles to get ahead of the chains and convert on third and fourth down are common, the offense can stagnate. Southern Miss passes the football 48.41% of the time.Relatively speaking, this is a team that favors run/pass balance.

Southern Miss is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to avoid negative yardage plays on the ground. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. Southern Miss can take credit for 2.85 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average offensive line as far as their ability to set up the running game. This is also a team that is getting to the second-level in an average fashion. Offensive line and running backs are average in this regard. They feature a relatively average explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play, but it is not something to count on from them.

Defenses have had average success disrupting the flow of the Southern Miss Offense. Front sevens of opposing defenses are causing a lot of problems. Southern Miss has shown themselves to be a better running team than passing team this season.

The Florida Atlantic Roster

The Players to Watch for Florida Atlantic

Nick Tronti QB 6-2 215

This season, Nick Tronti has put up 597 yards and 4 touchdowns. He has thrown 1 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 115.0thus far this season. Nick Tronti has thrown 1 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Nick Tronti has 99.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 75.0 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 49.0 times this season, which puts him in the 81.17 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 2.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Malcolm Davidson RB 5-10 205

This season, Malcolm Davidson has 298 rushing yards on 42 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 2 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Malcolm Davidson picked up 96 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 6 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

T.J. Chase WR 6-1 190

This season, T.J. Chase picked up 322 yards. He caught the ball 20 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.

Marcel Southall DT 6-3 270

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Florida Atlantic, Marcel Southall has 7 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 2 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 69.82 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 0 times this season, which put him in the 32.88 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Leighton McCarthy DE 6-3 225.0

The leading tackler among Defensive Ends for Florida Atlantic, Leighton McCarthy has 33 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 10 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 98.02 percentile among Defensive Ends. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 7 times this season, which put him in the 98.83 percentile among all Defensive Ends in College Football. He has forced 1 fumbles this season.

Ahman Ross S 5-11 195.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Florida Atlantic, Ahman Ross had 39 tackles which puts him in the 88.21 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 3 tackles for loss this season, which puts him in the 93.77 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 0 times this season. Ahman Ross as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes this season, which puts him in the 38.0 percentile among returning secondary position players this season.

Teja Young CB 5-11 190

Considered the leading tackler among Cornerbacks for Florida Atlantic, Teja Young had 28 tackles which puts him in the 89.52 percentile among Corners. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss this season, which puts him in the 34.7 percentile among Corners. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 0 times this season. Teja Young as a ball hawker was able to pick off 2 passes this season, which puts him in the 93.48 percentile among Corners this season.

The Southern Miss Roster

The Players to Watch for Southern Miss

Jack Abraham QB 6-0 209

This season, Jack Abraham has put up 1224 yards and 7 touchdowns. He has thrown 4 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 144.2thus far this season. Jack Abraham has thrown 4 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Jack Abraham has 26.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 52.62 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 29.0 times this season, which puts him in the 66.98 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 0.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Frank Gore Jr. RB 5-8 165

This season, Frank Gore Jr. has 597 rushing yards on 112 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 1 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Frank Gore Jr. picked up 91 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 8 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.

Jason Brownlee WR 6-3 195

This season, Jason Brownlee picked up 529 yards. He caught the ball 31 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 4 receiving touchdowns this season.

Eriq Kitchen DL 6-2 286.0

The leading tackler among Defensive Ends for Southern Miss, Eriq Kitchen has 31 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 4 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 82.04 percentile among Defensive Ends. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 2 times this season, which put him in the 80.93 percentile among all Defensive Ends in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Malik Shorts DB 6-0 192.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Southern Miss, Malik Shorts had 73 tackles which puts him in the 99.19 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 3 tackles for loss this season, which puts him in the 93.77 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 0 times this season. Malik Shorts as a ball hawker was able to pick off 1 passes this season, which puts him in the 83.88 percentile among returning secondary position players this season.

Florida Atlantic vs. Southern Miss Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: Florida Atlantic 29 Southern Miss 22

Spread Pick: Southern Miss +8.5 -105 Pinnacle Sports
Moneyline Pick: Florida Atlantic -310 Bookmaker
Total Pick: Over 41 -111 matchbook