College Football Picks, Predictions, and Previews: The Way It Oughtta Be

Fresno State vs. UNLV 11/7/2020 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

The Fresno State visits UNLV on 11/7/2020 at 3:30PM.

Fresno State and UNLV face off in an important game for both teams as every game in this shortened season with limited or no fans in attendance means more. Fresno State has a record of 1-1 this season. UNLV is 0-2 this season. Both have players to meet and know.

Fresno State Team Defense Preview

Fresno State has had 22 total defensive drives this season and they yield 6.09 plays per drive. The struggle is real. Fresno State cannot find a way to get opposing offenses off the field. Three and outs are not common and if the team needs a three-and-out late in a game to get the ball back, it is just not happening.Fresno State has a generally average defense. Nothing too special about it, but they are capable of rising up when needed. Fresno State opponents pass the football 43.28% of the time.Their opponents favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

This is a pushover defense. There is not enough push from the Defensive Line and not enough imagination from the Defensive Coordinator to cause chaos in the backfield.Opponent rushing yards attributed to their offensive line this season comes out to 3.55 yards per carry. Sorry to say this about this front seven, but the best way to make an average offensive line look good is for them to face this horrid front seven. This is a team that is getting gashed too much for the tastes of their base. Linebackers are not stopping the bleeding well enough. Long breakout runs against this Defense are far too common. This is a very porous rushing defense that is incapable of preventing a situation where their safeties chase down a running back or quarterback.

This Defense has had average success disrupting the flow of the opposing offense.. Getting more granual into the front seven and their ability to cause trouble, they are just average in this regard. Fresno State has shown themselves to be better at stopping the pass than the run this season.

Fresno State Team Offense Preview

Fresno State has had 24 drives in non-garbage time minutes and they average 5.83 plays per drive. Fresno State runs a lot of plays per drive and this could wear an opposing defense down. Fresno State is an average offense when it comes to staying ahead of the chains, getting into 3rd and Short scenarios, and converting on 3rd and 4th Down. Passing plays make up 50.71% of their play calls.Relatively speaking, this is a team that favors run/pass balance.

Fresno State struggles with running the ball, getting zero or negative yard plays is disspiriting and the offensive line is not effectively making a good push. Poor playcalling, pre-snap adjustments or post-snap reads may be responsible and this could fall on the Quarterback, Offensive Coordinator, and Head Coach. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. Fresno State can take credit for 2.3 yards per carry. So what does this mean? It means that the offensive line has been incredibly disappointing in their contribution to the ground game. When it comes to getting to that second level where linebackers have not crashed down on the line of scrimmage, they are getting stopped with ease. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to bust out big rushing plays.

Defenses have had average success disrupting the flow of the Fresno State Offense. Front sevens are causing an average amount of trouble for the Offense. Fresno State is a better passing team than running team this season.

UNLV Team Defense Preview

UNLV has had 20 total defensive drives this season and they yield 5.7 plays per drive. UNLV lets opponents run a lot of plays per drive and in the Fourth Quarter, this team could be gassed. Offensives should lick their lips given their inability to stop anyone, this is one of the worst defenses in the country. The Defensive Coordinator coaching search threads on UNLV message boards are flights of fantasy. Passing plays make up 47.37% of their opponents’ play calls.Their opponents favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

UNLV opponents have struggled with running the ball and this defense has crushed the spirits of their opponents with zero or negative yard plays. 4th and Short is not a cake walk against this defense, maybe passing on 4th and Short or having some sort of RPO is the way to go here because if an Offensive Coordinator thinks that they can just line and run a Quarterback Sneak or hand it off to a tailback, they are mistaken. How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? UNLV can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 3.24 yards per carry. This defense lets offensive lines have too much control over them on the ground, too much push from the opposing offensive line. Running backs should look forward to this porous defense filled with poor tacklers who take terrible angles. Long breakout runs against this Defense are far too common. This is a very porous rushing defense that is incapable of preventing a situation where their safeties chase down a running back or quarterback.

This Defense has had average success disrupting the flow of the opposing offense.. Getting more granual into the front seven and their ability to cause trouble, they are just average in this regard. UNLV has shown themselves to be better at stopping the pass than the run this season.

UNLV Team Offense Preview

UNLV has had 20 total drives this season and they generate 6.9 plays per drive. When you are among the best at plays per drive, you are certainly a team that aims to wear down the opposition with a high play count or with long, physical grinding drives that eat up a lot of clock. We need to find out more here when it comes to UNLV. Struggles to get ahead of the chains and convert on third and fourth down are common, the offense can stagnate. Passing plays make up 57.25% of their play calls.This is an Air Raid Offense team, they are going to pass the ball a lot and running plays are only used to keep opponents honest.

On first downs, getting ahead of the chains is crucial and running the ball well on first down can get a team there, UNLV has done a good job avoiding the negative yardage rushing plays. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 2.85 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average offensive line as far as their ability to set up the running game. When it comes to getting to that second level where linebackers have not crashed down on the line of scrimmage, they are getting stopped with ease. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to bust out big rushing plays.

Defenses have been able to impose their will on the UNLV Offense this season. Front sevens of opposing defenses are causing a lot of problems. UNLV has shown themselves to be a better running team than passing team this season.

The Fresno State Roster

The Players to Watch for Fresno State

Jake Haener QB 6-1 194

This season, Jake Haener has put up 600 yards and 4 touchdowns. He has thrown 3 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 153.3thus far this season. Jake Haener has thrown 3 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Jake Haener has 0.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 26.67 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 22.0 times this season, which puts him in the 70.2 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 0.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Ronnie Rivers RB 5-9 195

This season, Ronnie Rivers has 174 rushing yards on 41 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 3 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Ronnie Rivers picked up 77 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 6 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.

Keric Wheatfall WR 6-2 175

This season, Keric Wheatfall picked up 160 yards. He caught the ball 8 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Kevin Atkins DT 6-2 320

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Fresno State, Kevin Atkins has 6 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 0 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 28.42 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 0 times this season, which put him in the 36.61 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

David Perales DL 6-3 240

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Fresno State, David Perales has 9 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 2 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 74.03 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 2 times this season, which put him in the 87.42 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 1 fumbles this season.

Bralyn Lux DB 5-11 175

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Fresno State, Bralyn Lux had 14 tackles which puts him in the 65.07 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 1 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 79.41 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Bralyn Lux as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 40.81 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

The UNLV Roster

The Players to Watch for UNLV

Fresno State vs. UNLV Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: Fresno State 39 UNLV 28

Spread Pick: No Action
Moneyline Pick: Fresno State -391 SportsInteraction
Total Pick: Over 57 -110 Bookmaker