College Football Picks, Predictions, and Previews: The Way It Oughtta Be

Indiana vs. Michigan State 11/14/2020 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

The Indiana visits Michigan State on 11/14/2020 at 12:00PM.

Indiana and Michigan State face off in an important game for both teams as every game in this shortened season with limited or no fans in attendance means more. Indiana has a record of 3-0 this season. Michigan State is 1-2 this season. Both have players to meet and know.

Indiana Team Defense Preview

Indiana has had 39 total defensive drives this season and they yield 5.21 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive opponents run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Indiana has a generally average defense. Nothing too special about it, but they are capable of rising up when needed. Indiana opponents pass the football 54.19% of the time.Indiana tends to face teams that prefer to air it out or opponents want to air it out against them.

This is a pushover defense. There is not enough push from the Defensive Line and not enough imagination from the Defensive Coordinator to cause chaos in the backfield.Opponent rushing yards attributed to their offensive line this season comes out to 3.28 yards per carry. Sorry to say this about this front seven, but the best way to make an average offensive line look good is for them to face this horrid front seven. This is also a team that is allowing running backs and quarterbacks to get to the second-level in an average fashion. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to give up big rushing plays.

Disruptive plays are a part of the fabric of this team’s defensive effort. Game changing plays that drive Offensive Coordinators and Quarterbacks crazy, they find ways to deliver. This front seven is simply unable to make an impact, something must change or else the problems will repeat. Indiana is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

Indiana Team Offense Preview

Indiana has had 41 drives in non-garbage time minutes and they average 4.98 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, Indiana is not a team that runs many plays per drive. The offense is either prone to faltering and struggles to notch first downs or extremely explosive, we will need to find out a bit more to get answers. Struggles to get ahead of the chains and convert on third and fourth down are common, the offense can stagnate. Passing plays make up 53.92% of their play calls.Indiana tends to pass more than other teams.

Indiana is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to avoid negative yardage plays on the ground. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 2.01 yards per carry. So what does this mean? It means that the offensive line has been incredibly disappointing in their contribution to the ground game. When it comes to getting to that second level where linebackers have not crashed down on the line of scrimmage, they are getting stopped with ease. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to bust out big rushing plays.

Defenses have had trouble making big, disruptive plays against Indiana this season. There has been a relatively good job done by this Offensive Line to prevent opposing front sevens from causing problems consistently. Indiana is a better passing team than running team this season.

Michigan State Team Defense Preview

Michigan State has had 36 total defensive drives this season and they yield 5.42 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive opponents run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Opponents face third and long situations a lot against this defense. This is a defense that forces opponents to commit penalties, have compromised offensive line play, and fail to convert on crunch possessions. Michigan State opponents pass the football 52.82% of the time.Michigan State tends to face teams that prefer to air it out or opponents want to air it out against them.

Michigan State opponents have struggled with running the ball and this defense has crushed the spirits of their opponents with zero or negative yard plays. 4th and Short is not a cake walk against this defense, maybe passing on 4th and Short or having some sort of RPO is the way to go here because if an Offensive Coordinator thinks that they can just line and run a Quarterback Sneak or hand it off to a tailback, they are mistaken. Opponent rushing yards attributed to their offensive line this season comes out to 2.16 yards per carry. Opponent offensive lines have been simply unable to support their running games against this defense. When it comes to getting to that second level, running backs are getting stopped. This defense does not allow themselves to be gashed. They are capable of giving up a long run, which is really demoralizing when the opposing team has the ball deep in their own territory.

This Defense has had average success disrupting the flow of the opposing offense.. Getting more granual into the front seven and their ability to cause trouble, they are just average in this regard. Michigan State has shown themselves to be better at stopping the pass than the run this season.

Michigan State Team Offense Preview

Michigan State has had 37 drives in non-garbage time minutes and they average 4.95 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, Michigan State is not a team that runs many plays per drive. The offense is either prone to faltering and struggles to notch first downs or extremely explosive, we will need to find out a bit more to get answers. Struggles to get ahead of the chains and convert on third and fourth down are common, the offense can stagnate. Passing plays make up 51.91% of their play calls.Relatively speaking, this is a team that favors run/pass balance.

Michigan State struggles with running the ball, getting zero or negative yard plays is disspiriting and the offensive line is not effectively making a good push. Poor playcalling, pre-snap adjustments or post-snap reads may be responsible and this could fall on the Quarterback, Offensive Coordinator, and Head Coach. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. Michigan State can take credit for 1.69 yards per carry. So what does this mean? It means that the offensive line has been incredibly disappointing in their contribution to the ground game. When it comes to getting to that second level where linebackers have not crashed down on the line of scrimmage, they are getting stopped with ease. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to bust out big rushing plays.

Defenses have had average success disrupting the flow of the Michigan State Offense. Front sevens of opposing defenses are causing a lot of problems. Michigan State is a better passing team than running team this season.

The Indiana Roster

The Players to Watch for Indiana

Michael Penix Jr. QB 6-3 218

This season, Michael Penix Jr. has put up 750 yards and 7 touchdowns. He has thrown 1 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 134.0thus far this season. Michael Penix Jr. has thrown 1 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Michael Penix Jr. has 6.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 38.97 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 12.0 times this season, which puts him in the 53.56 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 2.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Stevie Scott RB 6-2 231

This season, Stevie Scott has 235 rushing yards on 65 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 4 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Stevie Scott picked up 19 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 7 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Whop Philyor WR 5-11 180

This season, Whop Philyor picked up 252 yards. He caught the ball 21 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.

James Head Jr. DL 6-5 261

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Indiana, James Head Jr. has 7 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 2 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 71.42 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 2 times this season, which put him in the 85.91 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Devon Matthews DB 6-2 202

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Indiana, Devon Matthews had 19 tackles which puts him in the 73.75 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 2 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 90.67 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 1 times last season. Devon Matthews as a ball hawker was able to pick off 1 passes last season, which puts him in the 87.26 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

The Michigan State Roster

The Players to Watch for Michigan State

Rocky Lombardi QB 6-4 225

This season, Rocky Lombardi has put up 869 yards and 6 touchdowns. He has thrown 5 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 132.0thus far this season. Rocky Lombardi has thrown 5 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Rocky Lombardi has -6.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 14.23 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 17.0 times this season, which puts him in the 59.79 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 0.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Jordon Simmons RB 5-11 195

This season, Jordon Simmons has 132 rushing yards on 37 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 0 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Jordon Simmons picked up 30 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 4 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Jalen Nailor WR 6-0 185

This season, Jalen Nailor picked up 271 yards. He caught the ball 12 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.

Naquan Jones DT 6-4 340

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Michigan State, Naquan Jones has 7 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 2 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 78.14 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 0 times this season, which put him in the 35.43 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Jacub Panasiuk DE 6-4 250

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Michigan State, Jacub Panasiuk has 14 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 2 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 71.42 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 0 times this season, which put him in the 32.91 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Xavier Henderson S 6-1 210

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Michigan State, Xavier Henderson had 19 tackles which puts him in the 73.75 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 1 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 77.36 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Xavier Henderson as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 40.1 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Shakur Brown CB 5-11 190

Considered the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Michigan State, Shakur Brown had 10 tackles which puts him in the 60.34 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 37.12 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Shakur Brown as a ball hawker was able to pick off 1 passes last season, which puts him in the 85.08 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Indiana vs. Michigan State Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: Indiana 25 Michigan State 17

Spread Pick: Indiana -7 -115 BetOnline
Moneyline Pick: Indiana -265 5Dimes
Total Pick: Under 52 -110 bet365