College Football Picks, Predictions, and Previews: The Way It Oughtta Be

Iowa vs. Minnesota 11/13/2020 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

The Iowa visits Minnesota on 11/13/2020 at 7:00PM.

Iowa and Minnesota face off in an important game for both teams as every game in this shortened season with limited or no fans in attendance means more. Iowa has a record of 1-2 this season. Minnesota is 1-2 this season. Both have players to meet and know.

Iowa Team Defense Preview

Iowa has had 34 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 5.38 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive opponents run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Opponents face third and long situations a lot against this defense. This is a defense that forces opponents to commit penalties, have compromised offensive line play, and fail to convert on crunch possessions. Iowa opponents pass the football 49.73% of the time.Opponents typically have some form of run/pass balance against them.

Iowa opponents have struggled with running the ball and this defense has crushed the spirits of their opponents with zero or negative yard plays. 4th and Short is not a cake walk against this defense, maybe passing on 4th and Short or having some sort of RPO is the way to go here because if an Offensive Coordinator thinks that they can just line and run a Quarterback Sneak or hand it off to a tailback, they are mistaken. Opponent rushing yards attributed to their offensive line this season comes out to 2.25 yards per carry. Opponent offensive lines have been simply unable to support their running games against this defense. When it comes to getting to that second level, running backs are getting stopped. This defense does not allow themselves to be gashed. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to give up big rushing plays.

This Defense has had average success disrupting the flow of the opposing offense.. Getting more granual into the front seven and their ability to cause trouble, they are just average in this regard. Iowa is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

Iowa Team Offense Preview

Iowa has had 35 drives in non-garbage time minutes and they average 5.31 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive they run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Iowa is an average offense when it comes to staying ahead of the chains, getting into 3rd and Short scenarios, and converting on 3rd and 4th Down. Passing plays make up 59.14% of their play calls.This is an Air Raid Offense team, they are going to pass the ball a lot and running plays are only used to keep opponents honest.

Iowa is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to avoid negative yardage plays on the ground. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 3.13 yards per carry. This offensive line may be underappreciated, even though the running backs get the attention. The Iowa coaching staff really deserves credit for how they prepared this offensive line, but they could be a little bit better! This is a team that is rather above-average when it comes to gashing defenses. The threat of the run should force opposing to play more honest and assignment defensive football is a must. They are capable of busting out a long run, which is really good when the team has the ball in their own territory.

Defenses have had trouble making big, disruptive plays against Iowa this season. There has been a relatively good job done by this Offensive Line to prevent opposing front sevens from causing problems consistently. Iowa has shown themselves to be a better running team than passing team this season.

Minnesota Team Defense Preview

Minnesota has had 31 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 4.84 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, Minnesota is not a team that allows many plays per drive. This defense either gives up big plays quickly or induces a lot of three-and-outs, we shall find out more. Offensives should lick their lips given their inability to stop anyone, this is one of the worst defenses in the country. The Defensive Coordinator coaching search threads on Minnesota message boards are flights of fantasy. Passing plays make up 46.00% of their opponents’ play calls.Their opponents favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

This is a pushover defense. There is not enough push from the Defensive Line and not enough imagination from the Defensive Coordinator to cause chaos in the backfield.How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? Minnesota can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 3.25 yards per carry. This defense lets offensive lines have too much control over them on the ground, too much push from the opposing offensive line. Running backs should look forward to this porous defense filled with poor tacklers who take terrible angles. Long breakout runs against this Defense are far too common. This is a very porous rushing defense that is incapable of preventing a situation where their safeties chase down a running back or quarterback.

This is not a disruptive Defense and they get pushed over way too easily. Perhaps they are too vanilla with playcalling. This front seven is simply unable to make an impact, something must change or else the problems will repeat. Minnesota is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

Minnesota Team Offense Preview

Minnesota has had 30 drives in non-garbage time minutes and they average 5.9 plays per drive. Minnesota runs a lot of plays per drive and this could wear an opposing defense down. Any defense is in for a challenge with Minnesota, given their ability to accrue more than 5 yards on 1st Downs and their ability to convert on 3rd and 4th Downs. They put a lot of pressure on opposing defenses.Minnesota passes the football 36.16% of the time.They favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

Move the pile forward, falling forward, making progress, ensuring north-south running, smart Quarterback reads, well-adjusted alignments to ensure leverage, and an offensive line that is getting a great push forward are cornerstones of this offense. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 3.56 yards per carry. This is an elite offensive line when it comes to generating a push for the running game. They know how to create creases for running backs to break loose. Playing 7 in a box may not be enough for opposing defenses, this is a great O-Line. This is a team that is rather above-average when it comes to gashing defenses. The threat of the run should force opposing to play more honest and assignment defensive football is a must. They have an explosive running game and they are capable of breaking big yardage runs on First and Second Down. This puts a lot of pressure on Linebackers and Safeties.

Defenses have had trouble making big, disruptive plays against Minnesota this season. There has been a relatively good job done by this Offensive Line to prevent opposing front sevens from causing problems consistently. Minnesota has shown themselves to be a better running team than passing team this season.

The Iowa Roster

The Players to Watch for Iowa

Spencer Petras QB 6-5 231

This season, Spencer Petras has put up 648 yards and 2 touchdowns. He has thrown 3 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 101.8thus far this season. Spencer Petras has thrown 3 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Spencer Petras has 13.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 46.76 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 9.0 times this season, which puts him in the 45.86 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 1.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Tyler Goodson RB 5-10 200

This season, Tyler Goodson has 233 rushing yards on 43 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 3 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Tyler Goodson picked up 67 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 7 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Nico Ragaini WR 6-0 193

This season, Nico Ragaini picked up 109 yards. He caught the ball 10 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Daviyon Nixon DT 6-3 305

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Iowa, Daviyon Nixon has 21 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 6 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 98.18 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 2 times this season, which put him in the 93.23 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 1 fumbles this season.

Chauncey Golston DL 6-5 270

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Iowa, Chauncey Golston has 16 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 4 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 89.12 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 2 times this season, which put him in the 85.91 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Jack Koerner DB 6-0 205

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Iowa, Jack Koerner had 23 tackles which puts him in the 80.48 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 2 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 90.85 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Jack Koerner as a ball hawker was able to pick off 2 passes last season, which puts him in the 96.45 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

The Minnesota Roster

The Players to Watch for Minnesota

Tanner Morgan QB 6-2 215

This season, Tanner Morgan has put up 602 yards and 3 touchdowns. He has thrown 2 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 139.0thus far this season. Tanner Morgan has thrown 2 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Tanner Morgan has -36.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 4.5 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 11.0 times this season, which puts him in the 51.44 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 0.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Mohamed Ibrahim RB 5-10 210

This season, Mohamed Ibrahim has 571 rushing yards on 97 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 10 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Mohamed Ibrahim picked up 48 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 6 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Rashod Bateman WR 6-2 210

This season, Rashod Bateman picked up 302 yards. He caught the ball 24 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.

Boye Mafe DL 6-4 265

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Minnesota, Boye Mafe has 12 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 4 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 89.12 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 4 times this season, which put him in the 96.67 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 1 fumbles this season.

Tyler Nubin DB 6-2 205

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Minnesota, Tyler Nubin had 21 tackles which puts him in the 77.6 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 34.71 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Tyler Nubin as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 40.12 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Iowa vs. Minnesota Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: Iowa 30 Minnesota 27

Spread Pick: Minnesota +3.5 -105 Pinnacle Sports
Moneyline Pick: Iowa -165 5Dimes
Total Pick: Under 58 -109 Pinnacle Sports