NFL Picks, Predictions, and Previews

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2/7/2021 Super Bowl LV Picks, Prediction, and Preview

The Kansas City Chiefs visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on 2/7/2021 at 6:30PM.

Kansas City and Tampa Bay face off in Super Bowl LV. Kansas City has a record of 14-2 this season. Tampa Bay is 11-5 this season. Both have players to meet and know.

Kansas City Team Defense Preview

Kansas City faces 6.2 plays per drive, this defense gives up 33.8 yards per drive, and opponents score 2.10 points per offensive possession. 36.1% of the time on defensive possessions, opponents will score a Touchdown or convert on a Field Goal Attempt, but 13.0% of the time, they force opposing offenses to turn the ball over. Defensive possessions start on average at opponent’s Own 25.8 and these drives typically last 2:50.

Opposing quarterbacks have a QBR of 89.4 against Kansas City and on 2.9% of passes thrown, it results in an interception. Kansas City has caused a sack rate of 5.4% this season.

We will get more situational with Kansas City and examine various situations. They have faced 188 third down attempts this season and opponents successfully turned the third down attempt into a first down 77 times, which works itself out to a success rate of 41.0%. Fourth Down situations are extremely consequential. They have taken on opponents in 20 fourth down conversion attempts this season and opponents have converted 13 of these attempts, which comes out to a success rate of 65.0%. Defensive possessions that reach the Red Zone have a higher chance of getting in the End Zone, which is why defenses strive to avoid this from happening. They have had allowed offenses 47 opportunities to score from the Red Zone this season and opponents successfully turned a Red Zone entrance into an End Zone celebration 36 times, which works itself out to a success rate of 76.6%.

Kansas City Team Offense Preview

Kansas City has 6.7 plays per drive, they generate 40.7 yards per drive, and this offense puts up 2.74 points per drive. On 47.9% of offensive possessions, they find a way to come away with points, but on 9.2% of offensive possessions, they find cough the ball up to the opponent. Their offensive drives start typically at their Own 28.2 yard line, they typically last 3:00.

6.3% of passes thrown are touchdown passes by Kansas City and on 1.1% of passes thrown, it results in an interception. Kansas City has yielded 24 sacks this season and this has resulted in 151 yards lost.
They rushed for 4.5 yards per carry and for 112.4 yards per game. Rushers, Receivers, and Sitting Duck Quarterbacks fumbled the ball 19 times this season.

Examining Kansas City in a few key offensive situations would be helpful in making judgments. They have navigated through 194 third down attempts this season and have converted 95 of these attempts, which comes out to a success rate of 49.0%. There is nothing more pressure-packed than fourth down situations. They have had 16 fourth down attempts this season and have converted 9 of these attempts, which comes out to a success rate of 56.3%. It is critical for offenses to get the ball into the Red Zone. They have had 59 Red Zone entrances this season and have converted 36 of these attempts into Touchdowns, which comes out to a conversion rate of 61.0%.

Tampa Bay Team Defense Preview

Tampa Bay faces 5.9 plays per drive, this defense gives up 29.4 yards per drive, and opponents score 1.89 points per offensive possession. On 33.7% of defensive possessions, opponents find a way to come away with points, but 14.0% of the time, they force opposing offenses to turn the ball over. Their offensive drives start typically at their opponent’s Own 28.1 yard line, they usually take up 2:48 of time.

This defense holds opposing quarterbacks to a Quarterback Rating (QBR) of 94.3 and on 2.4% of passes thrown, it results in an interception. Tampa Bay has caused a sack rate of 7.2% this season.

Examining Tampa Bay in a few key defensive situations would be helpful in making judgments. They have encountered 205 opponent third down attempts this season and opponents have converted 82 of these attempts, which comes out to a conversion rate of 40.0%. Fourth Down situations are extremely consequential. They have taken on opponents in 25 fourth down conversion attempts this season and opponents have converted 14 of these attempts, which comes out to a conversion rate of 56.0%. Defensive possessions that reach the Red Zone have a higher chance of getting in the End Zone, which is why defenses strive to avoid this from happening. They have had allowed offenses 51 opportunities to score from the Red Zone this season and their opponents have converted 32 of these attempts into Touchdowns, which comes out to a success rate of 62.7%.

Tampa Bay Team Offense Preview

Tampa Bay has run 5.8 plays per drive and this offense averages 34.1 yards per drive, and this offense puts up 2.72 points per drive. On 47.8% of offensive possessions, they find a way to come away with points, but 8.9% of the time, they are afflicted by the turnover bug. Their offensive drives start typically at their Own 31.0 yard line, they usually take up 2:34 of time.

On 6.7% of passes thrown, it results in a touchdown and on 1.9% of passes thrown, it results in an interception. Tampa Bay has yielded 22 sacks this season and this has resulted in 150 yards lost.
They rushed for 4.1 yards per carry and for 94.9 yards per game. Rushers, Receivers, and Sitting Duck Quarterbacks fumbled the ball 12 times this season.

Let’s get situational with the Tampa Bay and examine various situations. They have had 191 third down attempts this season and have converted 83 of these attempts, which comes out to a success rate of 43.5%. Fourth Down situations are extremely consequential. They have willingly and unwillingly encountered 14 fourth down conversion attempts this season and successfully turned the fourth down attempt into a first down 8 times, which works itself out to a conversion rate of 57.1%. Offensive possessions that reach the Red Zone have a higher chance of getting in the End Zone. They have had 61 opportunities to score from the Red Zone this season and successfully turned a Red Zone entrance into an End Zone celebration 42 times, which works itself out to a conversion rate of 68.9%.

The Kansas City Roster

The Players to Watch for Kansas City

Patrick Mahomes QB 6-3 230

This season, Patrick Mahomes has put up 4740 yards and 38 touchdowns. He has thrown 6 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 108.2thus far this season. Patrick Mahomes has thrown 6 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Patrick Mahomes has 308 rushing yards, which puts him in the 82.0 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 62 times this season, which puts him in the 82.0 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 2 rushing touchdowns this season.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB 5-7 207

This season, Clyde Edwards-Helaire has 803 rushing yards on 181 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 4 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Clyde Edwards-Helaire picked up 297 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 36 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.

Tyreek Hill WR 5-10 185

This season, Tyreek Hill picked up 1276 yards. He caught the ball 87 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 15 receiving touchdowns this season.

Chris Jones DT 6-6 310

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Kansas City, Chris Jones has 23 tackles this season.When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 8 times this season, which put him in the 96.77 among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 2.0 fumbles this season.

Frank Clark DE 6-3 260

The leading tackler among Defensive Ends for Kansas City, Frank Clark has 21 tackles this season.When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 6 times this season, which put him in the 73.81 among all Defensive Ends in College Football. He has forced 0.0 fumbles this season.

Daniel Sorensen FS 6-2 208

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Kansas City, Daniel Sorensen had 68 tackles which puts him in the 89.69 percentile among non-exclusive Defensive Backs. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 0 times this season. Daniel Sorensen as a ball hawker was able to pick off 3.0 passes this season, which puts him in the 88.51 percentile among secondary position players this season.

Charvarius Ward CB 6-1 196

Considered the leading tackler among Cornerbacks for Kansas City, Charvarius Ward had 38 tackles which puts him in the 62.6 percentile among Corners. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 1 times this season. Charvarius Ward as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0.0 passes this season, which puts him in the 19.83 percentile among Corners this season.

The Tampa Bay Roster

The Players to Watch for Tampa Bay

Tom Brady QB 6-4 225

This season, Tom Brady has put up 4633 yards and 40 touchdowns. He has thrown 12 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 102.2thus far this season. Tom Brady has thrown 12 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Tom Brady has 6 rushing yards, which puts him in the 18.0 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 30 times this season, which puts him in the 53.0 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 3 rushing touchdowns this season.

Ronald Jones II RB 5-11 208

This season, Ronald Jones II has 978 rushing yards on 192 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 7 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Ronald Jones II picked up 165 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 28 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.

Mike Evans WR 6-5 231

This season, Mike Evans picked up 1006 yards. He caught the ball 70 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 13 receiving touchdowns this season.

Rakeem Nunez-Roches DT 6-2 307

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Tampa Bay, Rakeem Nunez-Roches has 7 tackles this season.When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 0 times this season, which put him in the 16.67 among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced nan fumbles this season.

Jason Pierre-Paul DE 6-5 275

The leading tackler among Defensive Ends for Tampa Bay, Jason Pierre-Paul has 34 tackles this season.When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 10 times this season, which put him in the 95.83 among all Defensive Ends in College Football. He has forced 4.0 fumbles this season.

Antoine Winfield Jr. FS 5-9 203

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Tampa Bay, Antoine Winfield Jr. had 64 tackles which puts him in the 82.99 percentile among non-exclusive Defensive Backs. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 3 times this season. Antoine Winfield Jr. as a ball hawker was able to pick off 1.0 passes this season, which puts him in the 47.13 percentile among secondary position players this season.

Sean Murphy-Bunting CB 6-0 195

Considered the leading tackler among Cornerbacks for Tampa Bay, Sean Murphy-Bunting had 53 tackles which puts him in the 87.02 percentile among Corners. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 0 times this season. Sean Murphy-Bunting as a ball hawker was able to pick off 1.0 passes this season, which puts him in the 53.72 percentile among Corners this season.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction, Picks, and Odds

Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs 23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28
Spread Pick: Tampa Bay +3.5 -125 bet365
Moneyline Pick: Tampa Bay +150 5Dimes
Total Pick: Under 56.5 -108 Heritage

Now for the fun part! Prop bets and a handicapping look at them courtesy of our friends at Jazz Sports.

What will the last score of the game be?
TD -190
FG or Safety +130

Given the way both Mahomes and Brady throw the ball down the field, it’s hard to imagine the
last scoring drive of the game ending anywhere but in the end zone. Could it be a Tom Brady comeback to remember?

What will the last score of the first half be?
TD -120
FG or Safety -120

The even odds here make more sense, because no one is trying to come back and win the
game at the end of the half; instead, they are trying to get in position for some points before they
go into the locker room.

How many touchdowns will Kansas City score?

O/U 2.5 Over -340 / Under +215
O/U 3.5 Over -130 / Under -110
O/U 4.5 Over +210 / Under -330

Three touchdowns sounds about right for the Chiefs here, although they may need the fourth one to
get a win.

How many touchdowns will Tampa Bay score?

O/U 2.5 Over -200 / Under +135
O/U 3.5 Over +140 / Under -205
O/U 4.5 Over +330 / Under -600

The line here with the most issues seems to be the O/U 3.5. Neither defense is all that stingy, at
least not in terms of their passing game. It would not surprise me at all to see both teams score
four or more touchdowns, so this “over” looks the most attractive to me in terms of value.

How many field goals will Kansas City score?

O/U 0.5 Over -760 / Under +215
O/U 1.5 Over -125 / Under -115
O/U 2.5 Over +230 / Under -370

As much as Andy Reid likes to go for it on fourth down, two field goals sound about right for the
Chiefs in this game. However, that -125 and -370 bracket around that number doesn’t deliver much value.

How many field goals will Tampa Bay score?

O/U 0.5 Over -615 / Under +335
O/U 1.5 Over -125 / Under -115
O/U 2.5 Over +260 / Under -430

Based on the projection by PickPub, you might end up tempted to take the Under 0.5 and come away with a big payday. However, the over 2.5 seems about right given the conservative playcalling of Bruce Arians and sure foot of Ryan Succop.

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