College Football Picks, Predictions, and Previews: The Way It Oughtta Be

Kentucky vs. Alabama 11/21/2020 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

The Kentucky visits Alabama on 11/21/2020 at 4:00PM.

Kentucky and Alabama face off in an important game for both teams as every game in this shortened season with limited or no fans in attendance means more. Kentucky has a record of 3-4 this season. Alabama is 6-0 this season. Both have players to meet and know.

Kentucky Team Defense Preview

Kentucky has had 77 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 6.18 plays per drive. The struggle is real. Kentucky cannot find a way to get opposing offenses off the field. Three and outs are not common and if the team needs a three-and-out late in a game to get the ball back, it is just not happening.Kentucky has a generally average defense. Nothing too special about it, but they are capable of rising up when needed. Kentucky opponents pass the football 47.90% of the time.Opponents typically have some form of run/pass balance against them.

Kentucky is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to create negative yardage plays on the ground. Opponent rushing yards attributed to their offensive line this season comes out to 2.97 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average defense when it comes to how offensive lines control or fail to control them on the ground. When it comes to getting to that second level, running backs are getting stopped. This defense does not allow themselves to be gashed. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to give up big rushing plays.

This is not a disruptive Defense and they get pushed over way too easily. Perhaps they are too vanilla with playcalling. This front seven is simply unable to make an impact, something must change or else the problems will repeat. Kentucky is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

Kentucky Team Offense Preview

Kentucky has had 72 total drives this season and they generate 5.36 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive they run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Kentucky is an average offense when it comes to staying ahead of the chains, getting into 3rd and Short scenarios, and converting on 3rd and 4th Down. Passing plays make up 40.93% of their play calls.They favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

Move the pile forward, falling forward, making progress, ensuring north-south running, smart Quarterback reads, well-adjusted alignments to ensure leverage, and an offensive line that is getting a great push forward are cornerstones of this offense. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 3.33 yards per carry. This is an elite offensive line when it comes to generating a push for the running game. They know how to create creases for running backs to break loose. Playing 7 in a box may not be enough for opposing defenses, this is a great O-Line. This is a team that is rather above-average when it comes to gashing defenses. The threat of the run should force opposing to play more honest and assignment defensive football is a must. They are capable of busting out a long run, which is really good when the team has the ball in their own territory.

Defenses have had trouble making big, disruptive plays against Kentucky this season. There has been a relatively good job done by this Offensive Line to prevent opposing front sevens from causing problems consistently. Kentucky has shown themselves to be a better running team than passing team this season.

Alabama Team Defense Preview

Alabama has had 64 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 5.17 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, Alabama is not a team that allows many plays per drive. This defense either gives up big plays quickly or induces a lot of three-and-outs, we shall find out more. Opponents face third and long situations a lot against this defense. This is a defense that forces opponents to commit penalties, have compromised offensive line play, and fail to convert on crunch possessions. Passing plays make up 51.96% of their opponents’ play calls.Alabama tends to face teams that prefer to air it out or opponents want to air it out against them.

Alabama is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to create negative yardage plays on the ground. How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? Alabama can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 2.9 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average defense when it comes to how offensive lines control or fail to control them on the ground. This is also a team that is allowing running backs and quarterbacks to get to the second-level in an average fashion. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to give up big rushing plays.

Disruptive plays are a part of the fabric of this team’s defensive effort. Game changing plays that drive Offensive Coordinators and Quarterbacks crazy, they find ways to deliver. Getting more granual into the front seven and their ability to cause trouble, they are just average in this regard. Alabama is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

Alabama Team Offense Preview

Alabama has had 64 drives in non-garbage time minutes and they average 5.59 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive they run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Any defense is in for a challenge with Alabama, given their ability to accrue more than 5 yards on 1st Downs and their ability to convert on 3rd and 4th Downs. They put a lot of pressure on opposing defenses.Passing plays make up 50.56% of their play calls.Relatively speaking, this is a team that favors run/pass balance.

Move the pile forward, falling forward, making progress, ensuring north-south running, smart Quarterback reads, well-adjusted alignments to ensure leverage, and an offensive line that is getting a great push forward are cornerstones of this offense. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. Alabama can take credit for 3.34 yards per carry. This is an elite offensive line when it comes to generating a push for the running game. They know how to create creases for running backs to break loose. Playing 7 in a box may not be enough for opposing defenses, this is a great O-Line. This is a team that is rather above-average when it comes to gashing defenses. The threat of the run should force opposing to play more honest and assignment defensive football is a must. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to bust out big rushing plays.

Alabama has bullied and controlled defenses this season, defenses have not been able to dictate what this offense is able to do to them. Opponents should consider a containment strategy. There has been a relatively good job done by this Offensive Line to prevent opposing front sevens from causing problems consistently. Alabama is a better passing team than running team this season.

The Kentucky Roster

The Players to Watch for Kentucky

Terry Wilson QB 6-3 202

This season, Terry Wilson has put up 709 yards and 6 touchdowns. He has thrown 1 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 132.8thus far this season. Terry Wilson has thrown 1 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Terry Wilson has 334.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 96.25 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 68.0 times this season, which puts him in the 93.17 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 4.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Christopher Rodriguez Jr. RB 5-11 224

This season, Christopher Rodriguez Jr. has 562 rushing yards on 88 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 6 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Christopher Rodriguez Jr. picked up 0 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 0 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Josh Ali WR 6-0 193

This season, Josh Ali picked up 340 yards. He caught the ball 33 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.

Phil Hoskins DT 6-5 315

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Kentucky, Phil Hoskins has 17 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 1 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 61.41 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 0 times this season, which put him in the 34.71 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Joshua Paschal DE 6-3 278

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Kentucky, Joshua Paschal has 21 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 4 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 86.99 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 0 times this season, which put him in the 32.27 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Yusuf Corker DB 6-0 197

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Kentucky, Yusuf Corker had 53 tackles which puts him in the 98.66 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 2 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 90.05 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 1 times last season. Yusuf Corker as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 39.44 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Marlin Devonshire CB 5-11 182

Considered the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Kentucky, Marlin Devonshire had 1 tackles which puts him in the 7.55 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 36.32 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Marlin Devonshire as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 38.84 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

The Alabama Roster

The Players to Watch for Alabama

Mac Jones QB 6-2 214

This season, Mac Jones has put up 2196 yards and 16 touchdowns. He has thrown 2 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 210.3thus far this season. Mac Jones has thrown 2 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Mac Jones has -9.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 13.48 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 18.0 times this season, which puts him in the 57.85 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 1.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Najee Harris RB 6-2 230

This season, Najee Harris has 714 rushing yards on 124 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 14 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Najee Harris picked up 183 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 20 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Devonta Smith WR 6-1 175

This season, Devonta Smith picked up 759 yards. He caught the ball 56 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 8 receiving touchdowns this season.

Phidarian Mathis DL 6-4 312

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Alabama, Phidarian Mathis has 14 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 4 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 86.99 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 1 times this season, which put him in the 70.91 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Jordan Battle DB 6-1 210

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Alabama, Jordan Battle had 32 tackles which puts him in the 90.28 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 1 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 76.48 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Jordan Battle as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 39.44 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Kentucky vs. Alabama Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: Kentucky 17 Alabama 41

Spread Pick: Kentucky +31 -105 Pinnacle Sports
Moneyline Pick: Alabama -2315 SportsInteraction
Total Pick: Over 56.5 -116 Pinnacle Sports