College Football Picks, Predictions, and Previews: The Way It Oughtta Be

Kentucky vs. Florida 11/28/2020 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

The Kentucky visits Florida on 11/28/2020 at 12:00PM.

Kentucky and Florida face off in an important game for both teams as every game in this shortened season with limited or no fans in attendance means more. Kentucky has a record of 3-5 this season. Florida is 6-1 this season. Both have players to meet and know.

Kentucky Team Defense Preview

Kentucky has had 84 total defensive drives this season and they yield 6.05 plays per drive. The struggle is real. Kentucky cannot find a way to get opposing offenses off the field. Three and outs are not common and if the team needs a three-and-out late in a game to get the ball back, it is just not happening.Kentucky has shown an inability to stop defenses from converting on 4th Downs and they let opponents get into manageable 3rd Down situations where an RPO may be especially deadly. Kentucky opponents pass the football 48.82% of the time.Opponents typically have some form of run/pass balance against them.

Kentucky is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to create negative yardage plays on the ground. How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? Kentucky can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 2.91 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average defense when it comes to how offensive lines control or fail to control them on the ground. When it comes to getting to that second level, running backs are getting stopped. This defense does not allow themselves to be gashed. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to give up big rushing plays.

This is not a disruptive Defense and they get pushed over way too easily. Perhaps they are too vanilla with playcalling. This front seven is simply unable to make an impact, something must change or else the problems will repeat. Kentucky is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

Kentucky Team Offense Preview

Kentucky has had 80 total drives this season and they generate 5.33 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive they run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Kentucky is an average offense when it comes to staying ahead of the chains, getting into 3rd and Short scenarios, and converting on 3rd and 4th Down. Passing plays make up 41.31% of their play calls.They favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

Move the pile forward, falling forward, making progress, ensuring north-south running, smart Quarterback reads, well-adjusted alignments to ensure leverage, and an offensive line that is getting a great push forward are cornerstones of this offense. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 3.09 yards per carry. This offensive line may be underappreciated, even though the running backs get the attention. The Kentucky coaching staff really deserves credit for how they prepared this offensive line, but they could be a little bit better! This is a team that is rather above-average when it comes to gashing defenses. The threat of the run should force opposing to play more honest and assignment defensive football is a must. They are capable of busting out a long run, which is really good when the team has the ball in their own territory.

Defenses have had trouble making big, disruptive plays against Kentucky this season. There has been a relatively good job done by this Offensive Line to prevent opposing front sevens from causing problems consistently. Kentucky has shown themselves to be a better running team than passing team this season.

Florida Team Defense Preview

Florida has had 78 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 5.83 plays per drive. Florida lets opponents run a lot of plays per drive and in the Fourth Quarter, this team could be gassed. Florida has shown an inability to stop defenses from converting on 4th Downs and they let opponents get into manageable 3rd Down situations where an RPO may be especially deadly. Florida opponents pass the football 54.07% of the time.Florida tends to face teams that prefer to air it out or opponents want to air it out against them.

This is a pushover defense. There is not enough push from the Defensive Line and not enough imagination from the Defensive Coordinator to cause chaos in the backfield.How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? Florida can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 3.11 yards per carry. This defense lets offensive lines have too much control over them on the ground, too much push from the opposing offensive line. This is a team that is getting gashed too much for the tastes of their base. Linebackers are not stopping the bleeding well enough. Opponents have shown a relatively average level of explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play against them.

This Defense has had average success disrupting the flow of the opposing offense.. Getting more granual into the front seven and their ability to cause trouble, they are just average in this regard. Florida has shown themselves to be better at stopping the pass than the run this season.

Florida Team Offense Preview

Florida has had 75 drives in non-garbage time minutes and they average 6.44 plays per drive. When you are among the best at plays per drive, you are certainly a team that aims to wear down the opposition with a high play count or with long, physical grinding drives that eat up a lot of clock. We need to find out more here when it comes to Florida. Any defense is in for a challenge with Florida, given their ability to accrue more than 5 yards on 1st Downs and their ability to convert on 3rd and 4th Downs. They put a lot of pressure on opposing defenses.Florida passes the football 54.45% of the time.Florida tends to pass more than other teams.

Move the pile forward, falling forward, making progress, ensuring north-south running, smart Quarterback reads, well-adjusted alignments to ensure leverage, and an offensive line that is getting a great push forward are cornerstones of this offense. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 3.32 yards per carry. This is an elite offensive line when it comes to generating a push for the running game. They know how to create creases for running backs to break loose. Playing 7 in a box may not be enough for opposing defenses, this is a great O-Line. This is also a team that is getting to the second-level in an average fashion. Offensive line and running backs are average in this regard. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to bust out big rushing plays.

Defenses have had trouble making big, disruptive plays against Florida this season. Florida is among the best in the country at keeping defensive front sevens at bay. Opposing defenses need their secondary players to step up and cause trouble in order for this Offense to be disrupted. Florida is a better passing team than running team this season.

The Kentucky Roster

The Players to Watch for Kentucky

Terry Wilson QB 6-3 202

This season, Terry Wilson has put up 829 yards and 6 touchdowns. He has thrown 2 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 127.4thus far this season. Terry Wilson has thrown 2 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Terry Wilson has 339.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 95.74 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 73.0 times this season, which puts him in the 94.26 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 4.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Christopher Rodriguez Jr. RB 5-11 224

This season, Christopher Rodriguez Jr. has 562 rushing yards on 88 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 6 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Christopher Rodriguez Jr. picked up 0 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 0 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Josh Ali WR 6-0 193

This season, Josh Ali picked up 392 yards. He caught the ball 37 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.

Phil Hoskins DT 6-5 315

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Kentucky, Phil Hoskins has 18 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 1 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 59.39 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 0 times this season, which put him in the 34.51 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Joshua Paschal DE 6-3 278

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Kentucky, Joshua Paschal has 25 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 4 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 85.32 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 0 times this season, which put him in the 31.47 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Yusuf Corker DB 6-0 197.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Kentucky, Yusuf Corker had 58 tackles which puts him in the 98.66 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 2 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 88.98 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 1 times last season. Yusuf Corker as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 39.16 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Marlin Devonshire CB 5-11 182

Considered the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Kentucky, Marlin Devonshire had 1 tackles which puts him in the 7.8 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 35.17 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Marlin Devonshire as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 38.07 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

The Florida Roster

The Players to Watch for Florida

Kyle Trask QB 6-5 240

This season, Kyle Trask has put up 2554 yards and 31 touchdowns. He has thrown 3 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 197.1thus far this season. Kyle Trask has thrown 3 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Kyle Trask has 85.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 75.74 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 33.0 times this season, which puts him in the 74.75 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 0.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Dameon Pierce RB 5-10 215

This season, Dameon Pierce has 345 rushing yards on 72 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 3 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Dameon Pierce picked up 95 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 7 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.

Trevon Grimes WR 6-4 218

This season, Trevon Grimes picked up 347 yards. He caught the ball 22 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 6 receiving touchdowns this season.

Zachary Carter DL 6-4 290

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Florida, Zachary Carter has 21 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 4 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 85.32 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 2 times this season, which put him in the 83.9 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Shawn Davis DB 6-0 206.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Florida, Shawn Davis had 32 tackles which puts him in the 88.04 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 1 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 75.36 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Shawn Davis as a ball hawker was able to pick off 1 passes last season, which puts him in the 85.62 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Kentucky vs. Florida Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: Kentucky 22 Florida 38

Spread Pick: Kentucky +25.5 -110 Intertops
Moneyline Pick: Florida -1450 matchbook
Total Pick: Under 61 -108 5Dimes