College Football Picks, Predictions, and Previews: The Way It Oughtta Be

Louisiana-Monroe vs. Arkansas State 12/5/2020 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

The Louisiana-Monroe visits Arkansas State on 12/5/2020 at 3:00PM.

Louisiana-Monroe and Arkansas State face off in an important game for both teams as every game in this shortened season with limited or no fans in attendance means more. Louisiana-Monroe has a record of 0-9 this season. Arkansas State is 3-7 this season. Both have players to meet and know.

Louisiana-Monroe Team Defense Preview

Louisiana-Monroe has had 85 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 6.06 plays per drive. The struggle is real. Louisiana-Monroe cannot find a way to get opposing offenses off the field. Three and outs are not common and if the team needs a three-and-out late in a game to get the ball back, it is just not happening.Offensives should lick their lips given their inability to stop anyone, this is one of the worst defenses in the country. The Defensive Coordinator coaching search threads on Louisiana-Monroe message boards are flights of fantasy. Passing plays make up 33.98% of their opponents’ play calls.Their opponents favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

This is a pushover defense. There is not enough push from the Defensive Line and not enough imagination from the Defensive Coordinator to cause chaos in the backfield.How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? Louisiana-Monroe can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 3.4 yards per carry. Sorry to say this about this front seven, but the best way to make an average offensive line look good is for them to face this horrid front seven. Running backs should look forward to this porous defense filled with poor tacklers who take terrible angles. They are capable of giving up a long run, which is really demoralizing when the opposing team has the ball deep in their own territory.

This is not a disruptive Defense and they get pushed over way too easily. Perhaps they are too vanilla with playcalling. This front seven is simply unable to make an impact, something must change or else the problems will repeat. Louisiana-Monroe has shown themselves to be better at stopping the pass than the run this season.

Louisiana-Monroe Team Offense Preview

Louisiana-Monroe has had 93 total drives this season and they generate 4.74 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, Louisiana-Monroe is not a team that runs many plays per drive. The offense is either prone to faltering and struggles to notch first downs or extremely explosive, we will need to find out a bit more to get answers. Struggles to get ahead of the chains and convert on third and fourth down are common, the offense can stagnate. Louisiana-Monroe passes the football 65.99% of the time.This is an Air Raid Offense team, they are going to pass the ball a lot and running plays are only used to keep opponents honest.

Louisiana-Monroe struggles with running the ball, getting zero or negative yard plays is disspiriting and the offensive line is not effectively making a good push. Poor playcalling, pre-snap adjustments or post-snap reads may be responsible and this could fall on the Quarterback, Offensive Coordinator, and Head Coach. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. Louisiana-Monroe can take credit for 2.17 yards per carry. So what does this mean? It means that the offensive line has been incredibly disappointing in their contribution to the ground game. When it comes to getting to that second level where linebackers have not crashed down on the line of scrimmage, they are getting stopped with ease. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to bust out big rushing plays.

Defenses have been able to impose their will on the Louisiana-Monroe Offense this season. Front sevens are causing an average amount of trouble for the Offense. Louisiana-Monroe is a better passing team than running team this season.

Arkansas State Team Defense Preview

Arkansas State has had 127 total defensive drives this season and they yield 5.59 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive opponents run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Arkansas State has a generally average defense. Nothing too special about it, but they are capable of rising up when needed. Passing plays make up 49.58% of their opponents’ play calls.Opponents typically have some form of run/pass balance against them.

Arkansas State opponents have struggled with running the ball and this defense has crushed the spirits of their opponents with zero or negative yard plays. 4th and Short is not a cake walk against this defense, maybe passing on 4th and Short or having some sort of RPO is the way to go here because if an Offensive Coordinator thinks that they can just line and run a Quarterback Sneak or hand it off to a tailback, they are mistaken. Opponent rushing yards attributed to their offensive line this season comes out to 2.45 yards per carry. Opponent offensive lines have been simply unable to support their running games against this defense. When it comes to getting to that second level, running backs are getting stopped. This defense does not allow themselves to be gashed. Opponents have shown a relatively average level of explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play against them.

This Defense has had average success disrupting the flow of the opposing offense.. Getting more granual into the front seven and their ability to cause trouble, they are just average in this regard. Arkansas State is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

Arkansas State Team Offense Preview

Arkansas State has had 126 drives in non-garbage time minutes and they average 5.85 plays per drive. Arkansas State runs a lot of plays per drive and this could wear an opposing defense down. Arkansas State is an average offense when it comes to staying ahead of the chains, getting into 3rd and Short scenarios, and converting on 3rd and 4th Down. Passing plays make up 57.80% of their play calls.This is an Air Raid Offense team, they are going to pass the ball a lot and running plays are only used to keep opponents honest.

Arkansas State is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to avoid negative yardage plays on the ground. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 2.89 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average offensive line as far as their ability to set up the running game. This is also a team that is getting to the second-level in an average fashion. Offensive line and running backs are average in this regard. They feature a relatively average explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play, but it is not something to count on from them.

Defenses have had average success disrupting the flow of the Arkansas State Offense. There has been a relatively good job done by this Offensive Line to prevent opposing front sevens from causing problems consistently. Arkansas State is a better passing team than running team this season.

The Louisiana-Monroe Roster

The Players to Watch for Louisiana-Monroe

Colby Suits QB 6-3 240

This season, Colby Suits has put up 1537 yards and 8 touchdowns. He has thrown 7 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 117.9thus far this season. Colby Suits has thrown 7 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Colby Suits has 57.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 65.71 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 35.0 times this season, which puts him in the 73.02 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 0.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Josh Johnson RB 5-9 208

This season, Josh Johnson has 270 rushing yards on 77 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 3 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Josh Johnson picked up 67 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 17 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.

Perry Carter WR 5-8 172

This season, Perry Carter picked up 284 yards. He caught the ball 19 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 2 receiving touchdowns this season.

Quincy Ledet Jr. DT 6-2 286

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Louisiana-Monroe, Quincy Ledet Jr. has 11 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 0 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 24.54 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 0 times this season, which put him in the 33.72 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Ty Shelby DE 6-4 252

The leading tackler among Defensive Ends for Louisiana-Monroe, Ty Shelby has 35 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 6 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 92.0 percentile among Defensive Ends. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 2 times this season, which put him in the 82.48 percentile among all Defensive Ends in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Austin Hawley S 6-0 197.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Louisiana-Monroe, Austin Hawley had 66 tackles which puts him in the 98.82 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 4 tackles for loss this season, which puts him in the 97.02 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 1 times this season. Austin Hawley as a ball hawker was able to pick off 1 passes this season, which puts him in the 84.5 percentile among returning secondary position players this season.

Josh Newton CB 5-10 192

Considered the leading tackler among Cornerbacks for Louisiana-Monroe, Josh Newton had 15 tackles which puts him in the 68.18 percentile among Corners. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss this season, which puts him in the 35.19 percentile among Corners. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 0 times this season. Josh Newton as a ball hawker was able to pick off 1 passes this season, which puts him in the 82.99 percentile among Corners this season.

The Arkansas State Roster

The Players to Watch for Arkansas State

Layne Hatcher QB 6-0 210

This season, Layne Hatcher has put up 1732 yards and 14 touchdowns. He has thrown 2 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 162.6thus far this season. Layne Hatcher has thrown 2 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Layne Hatcher has 17.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 44.29 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 41.0 times this season, which puts him in the 80.0 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 0.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Jamal Jones RB 5-9 193

This season, Jamal Jones has 545 rushing yards on 118 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 3 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Jamal Jones picked up 77 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 15 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Jonathan Adams Jr. WR 6-3 220

This season, Jonathan Adams Jr. picked up 1111 yards. He caught the ball 79 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 12 receiving touchdowns this season.

Forrest Merrill DL 6-1 338

The leading tackler among Defensive Ends for Arkansas State, Forrest Merrill has 37 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 5 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 88.36 percentile among Defensive Ends. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 1 times this season, which put him in the 68.5 percentile among all Defensive Ends in College Football. He has forced 1 fumbles this season.

Elery Alexander DB 6-0 190.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Arkansas State, Elery Alexander had 46 tackles which puts him in the 94.83 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 4 tackles for loss this season, which puts him in the 97.02 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 0 times this season. Elery Alexander as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes this season, which puts him in the 38.31 percentile among returning secondary position players this season.

Booker Ficklin CB 6-2 190

Considered the leading tackler among Cornerbacks for Arkansas State, Booker Ficklin had 30 tackles which puts him in the 93.99 percentile among Corners. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 1 tackles for loss this season, which puts him in the 78.74 percentile among Corners. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 0 times this season. Booker Ficklin as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes this season, which puts him in the 37.54 percentile among Corners this season.

Louisiana-Monroe vs. Arkansas State Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: Louisiana-Monroe 27 Arkansas State 42

Spread Pick: Louisiana-Monroe +21 -108 Pinnacle Sports
Moneyline Pick: Arkansas State -991 SportsInteraction
Total Pick: Under 70 -109 Pinnacle Sports