College Football Picks, Predictions, and Previews: The Way It Oughtta Be

Louisville vs. Virginia 11/14/2020 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

The Louisville visits Virginia on 11/14/2020 at 3:30PM.

Louisville and Virginia face off in an important game for both teams as every game in this shortened season with limited or no fans in attendance means more. Louisville has a record of 2-5 this season. Virginia is 2-4 this season. Both have players to meet and know.

Louisville Team Defense Preview

Louisville has had 76 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 5.64 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive opponents run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Opponents face third and long situations a lot against this defense. This is a defense that forces opponents to commit penalties, have compromised offensive line play, and fail to convert on crunch possessions. Louisville opponents pass the football 41.26% of the time.Their opponents favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

Louisville opponents have struggled with running the ball and this defense has crushed the spirits of their opponents with zero or negative yard plays. 4th and Short is not a cake walk against this defense, maybe passing on 4th and Short or having some sort of RPO is the way to go here because if an Offensive Coordinator thinks that they can just line and run a Quarterback Sneak or hand it off to a tailback, they are mistaken. How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? Louisville can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 2.75 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average defense when it comes to how offensive lines control or fail to control them on the ground. Running backs should look forward to this porous defense filled with poor tacklers who take terrible angles. They are capable of giving up a long run, which is really demoralizing when the opposing team has the ball deep in their own territory.

This Defense has had average success disrupting the flow of the opposing offense.. Getting more granual into the front seven and their ability to cause trouble, they are just average in this regard. Louisville has shown themselves to be better at stopping the pass than the run this season.

Louisville Team Offense Preview

Louisville has had 79 drives in non-garbage time minutes and they average 5.52 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive they run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Louisville is an average offense when it comes to staying ahead of the chains, getting into 3rd and Short scenarios, and converting on 3rd and 4th Down. Passing plays make up 49.77% of their play calls.Relatively speaking, this is a team that favors run/pass balance.

Louisville struggles with running the ball, getting zero or negative yard plays is disspiriting and the offensive line is not effectively making a good push. Poor playcalling, pre-snap adjustments or post-snap reads may be responsible and this could fall on the Quarterback, Offensive Coordinator, and Head Coach. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 2.75 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average offensive line as far as their ability to set up the running game. The offensive line and running back corps deserve a lot of credit for gashing defenses with their running game like the way they have this season. They have an explosive running game and they are capable of breaking big yardage runs on First and Second Down. This puts a lot of pressure on Linebackers and Safeties.

Defenses have been able to impose their will on the Louisville Offense this season. Front sevens of opposing defenses are causing a lot of problems. Louisville is a better passing team than running team this season.

Virginia Team Defense Preview

Virginia has had 78 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 5.28 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive opponents run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Opponents face third and long situations a lot against this defense. This is a defense that forces opponents to commit penalties, have compromised offensive line play, and fail to convert on crunch possessions. Virginia opponents pass the football 49.51% of the time.Opponents typically have some form of run/pass balance against them.

Virginia is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to create negative yardage plays on the ground. How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? Virginia can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 2.34 yards per carry. Opponent offensive lines have been simply unable to support their running games against this defense. When it comes to getting to that second level, running backs are getting stopped. This defense does not allow themselves to be gashed. Opponents have shown a relatively average level of explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play against them.

Disruptive plays are a part of the fabric of this team’s defensive effort. Game changing plays that drive Offensive Coordinators and Quarterbacks crazy, they find ways to deliver. Getting more specific, this front seven is a cause of a lot of headaches for offenses. They may be good enough to cause trouble in pass rush with just four rushers!Virginia is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

Virginia Team Offense Preview

Virginia has had 79 total drives this season and they generate 5.8 plays per drive. Virginia runs a lot of plays per drive and this could wear an opposing defense down. Virginia is an average offense when it comes to staying ahead of the chains, getting into 3rd and Short scenarios, and converting on 3rd and 4th Down. Virginia passes the football 55.24% of the time.Virginia tends to pass more than other teams.

Move the pile forward, falling forward, making progress, ensuring north-south running, smart Quarterback reads, well-adjusted alignments to ensure leverage, and an offensive line that is getting a great push forward are cornerstones of this offense. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. Virginia can take credit for 3.35 yards per carry. This is an elite offensive line when it comes to generating a push for the running game. They know how to create creases for running backs to break loose. Playing 7 in a box may not be enough for opposing defenses, this is a great O-Line. This is a team that is rather above-average when it comes to gashing defenses. The threat of the run should force opposing to play more honest and assignment defensive football is a must. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to bust out big rushing plays.

Defenses have had average success disrupting the flow of the Virginia Offense. Virginia is among the best in the country at keeping defensive front sevens at bay. Opposing defenses need their secondary players to step up and cause trouble in order for this Offense to be disrupted. Virginia has shown themselves to be a better running team than passing team this season.

The Louisville Roster

The Players to Watch for Louisville

Malik Cunningham QB 6-1 200

This season, Malik Cunningham has put up 1746 yards and 15 touchdowns. He has thrown 8 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 152.6thus far this season. Malik Cunningham has thrown 8 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Malik Cunningham has 220.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 91.81 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 72.0 times this season, which puts him in the 96.26 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 3.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Javian Hawkins RB 5-9 196

This season, Javian Hawkins has 822 rushing yards on 133 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 7 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Javian Hawkins picked up 127 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 16 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.

Chatarius Atwell WR 5-9 165

This season, Chatarius Atwell picked up 528 yards. He caught the ball 40 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 5 receiving touchdowns this season.

Jared Goldwire DL 6-6 305

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Louisville, Jared Goldwire has 26 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 3 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 83.78 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 1 times this season, which put him in the 72.46 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Russ Yeast DB 5-11 205

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Louisville, Russ Yeast had 32 tackles which puts him in the 91.73 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 34.52 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Russ Yeast as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 40.1 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Kei’Trel Clark CB 5-10 165

Considered the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Louisville, Kei’Trel Clark had 20 tackles which puts him in the 87.29 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 2 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 93.39 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Kei’Trel Clark as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 38.98 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

The Virginia Roster

The Players to Watch for Virginia

Brennan Armstrong QB 6-2 215

This season, Brennan Armstrong has put up 985 yards and 10 touchdowns. He has thrown 7 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 123.3thus far this season. Brennan Armstrong has thrown 7 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Brennan Armstrong has 287.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 96.8 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 73.0 times this season, which puts him in the 96.8 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 2.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Wayne Taulapapa RB 5-9 210

This season, Wayne Taulapapa has 330 rushing yards on 71 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 4 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Wayne Taulapapa picked up 55 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 11 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Terrell Jana WR 6-0 200

This season, Terrell Jana picked up 339 yards. He caught the ball 28 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.

Jowon Briggs DT 6-1 310

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Virginia, Jowon Briggs has 16 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 4 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 94.22 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 3 times this season, which put him in the 97.99 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Richard Burney DE 6-4 280

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Virginia, Richard Burney has 16 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 4 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 89.2 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 2 times this season, which put him in the 85.91 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

D’Angelo Amos DB 6-1 185

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Virginia, D’Angelo Amos had 36 tackles which puts him in the 93.99 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 2 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 90.67 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. D’Angelo Amos as a ball hawker was able to pick off 1 passes last season, which puts him in the 87.26 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Nick Grant CB 6-1 200

Considered the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Virginia, Nick Grant had 17 tackles which puts him in the 79.49 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 37.12 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Nick Grant as a ball hawker was able to pick off 1 passes last season, which puts him in the 85.08 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Louisville vs. Virginia Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: Louisville 34 Virginia 30

Spread Pick: Louisville +4 -113 Pinnacle Sports
Moneyline Pick: Louisville +160 5Dimes
Total Pick: Under 67.5 -172 matchbook