College Football Picks, Predictions, and Previews: The Way It Oughtta Be

LSU vs. Arkansas 11/21/2020 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

The LSU visits Arkansas on 11/21/2020 at 12:00PM.

LSU and Arkansas face off in an important game for both teams as every game in this shortened season with limited or no fans in attendance means more. LSU has a record of 2-3 this season. Arkansas is 3-4 this season. Both have players to meet and know.

LSU Team Defense Preview

LSU has had 57 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 4.91 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, LSU is not a team that allows many plays per drive. This defense either gives up big plays quickly or induces a lot of three-and-outs, we shall find out more. LSU has shown an inability to stop defenses from converting on 4th Downs and they let opponents get into manageable 3rd Down situations where an RPO may be especially deadly. Passing plays make up 57.50% of their opponents’ play calls.They are a team that faces a lot of Air Raid Offenses.

Defenses want to stop offenses from getting into a 3rd Down where the options are plentiful. Unfortunately, this defense is too porous to limit those choices. How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? LSU can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 3.25 yards per carry. This defense lets offensive lines have too much control over them on the ground, too much push from the opposing offensive line. This is a team that is getting gashed too much for the tastes of their base. Linebackers are not stopping the bleeding well enough. Opponents have shown a relatively average level of explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play against them.

Disruptive plays are a part of the fabric of this team’s defensive effort. Game changing plays that drive Offensive Coordinators and Quarterbacks crazy, they find ways to deliver. Getting more specific, this front seven is a cause of a lot of headaches for offenses. They may be good enough to cause trouble in pass rush with just four rushers!LSU has shown themselves to be better at stopping the pass than the run this season.

LSU Team Offense Preview

LSU has had 56 total drives this season and they generate 5.13 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, LSU is not a team that runs many plays per drive. The offense is either prone to faltering and struggles to notch first downs or extremely explosive, we will need to find out a bit more to get answers. LSU has shown a capability to be explosive on first and second down to avoid third downs and has converted well (relatively) on 3rd and 4th Down situations. Passing plays make up 59.93% of their play calls.This is an Air Raid Offense team, they are going to pass the ball a lot and running plays are only used to keep opponents honest.

On first downs, getting ahead of the chains is crucial and running the ball well on first down can get a team there, LSU has done a good job avoiding the negative yardage rushing plays. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. LSU can take credit for 3.17 yards per carry. This offensive line may be underappreciated, even though the running backs get the attention. The LSU coaching staff really deserves credit for how they prepared this offensive line, but they could be a little bit better! When it comes to getting to that second level where linebackers have not crashed down on the line of scrimmage, they are getting stopped with ease. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to bust out big rushing plays.

Defenses have had trouble making big, disruptive plays against LSU this season. LSU is among the best in the country at keeping defensive front sevens at bay. Opposing defenses need their secondary players to step up and cause trouble in order for this Offense to be disrupted. LSU has shown themselves to be a better running team than passing team this season.

Arkansas Team Defense Preview

Arkansas has had 86 total defensive drives this season and they yield 5.91 plays per drive. Arkansas lets opponents run a lot of plays per drive and in the Fourth Quarter, this team could be gassed. Arkansas has shown an inability to stop defenses from converting on 4th Downs and they let opponents get into manageable 3rd Down situations where an RPO may be especially deadly. Arkansas opponents pass the football 49.61% of the time.Opponents typically have some form of run/pass balance against them.

Defenses want to stop offenses from getting into a 3rd Down where the options are plentiful. Unfortunately, this defense is too porous to limit those choices. How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? Arkansas can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 3.29 yards per carry. Sorry to say this about this front seven, but the best way to make an average offensive line look good is for them to face this horrid front seven. This is also a team that is allowing running backs and quarterbacks to get to the second-level in an average fashion. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to give up big rushing plays.

This Defense has had average success disrupting the flow of the opposing offense.. This front seven is simply unable to make an impact, something must change or else the problems will repeat. Arkansas has shown themselves to be better at stopping the pass than the run this season.

Arkansas Team Offense Preview

Arkansas has had 85 total drives this season and they generate 5.13 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, Arkansas is not a team that runs many plays per drive. The offense is either prone to faltering and struggles to notch first downs or extremely explosive, we will need to find out a bit more to get answers. Arkansas has shown a capability to be explosive on first and second down to avoid third downs and has converted well (relatively) on 3rd and 4th Down situations. Arkansas passes the football 48.85% of the time.Relatively speaking, this is a team that favors run/pass balance.

Arkansas is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to avoid negative yardage plays on the ground. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. Arkansas can take credit for 2.82 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average offensive line as far as their ability to set up the running game. When it comes to getting to that second level where linebackers have not crashed down on the line of scrimmage, they are getting stopped with ease. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to bust out big rushing plays.

Defenses have had average success disrupting the flow of the Arkansas Offense. Front sevens of opposing defenses are causing a lot of problems. Arkansas is a better passing team than running team this season.

The LSU Roster

The Players to Watch for LSU

Myles Brennan QB 6-4 210

This season, Myles Brennan has put up 1112 yards and 11 touchdowns. He has thrown 3 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 154.7thus far this season. Myles Brennan has thrown 3 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Myles Brennan has -36.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 4.1 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 17.0 times this season, which puts him in the 56.14 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 0.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

John Emery Jr. RB 5-11 215

This season, John Emery Jr. has 246 rushing yards on 48 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 2 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, John Emery Jr. picked up 51 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 8 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Terrace Marshall Jr. WR 6-3 200

This season, Terrace Marshall Jr. picked up 540 yards. He caught the ball 31 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 9 receiving touchdowns this season.

Siaki Ika NT 6-4 340

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for LSU, Siaki Ika has 5 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 1 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 61.41 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 1 times this season, which put him in the 78.88 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Ali Gaye DL 6-6 262

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for LSU, Ali Gaye has 15 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 6 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 94.35 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 1 times this season, which put him in the 70.91 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

JaCoby Stevens S 6-2 230

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for LSU, JaCoby Stevens had 36 tackles which puts him in the 92.5 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 4 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 97.87 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 2 times last season. JaCoby Stevens as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 39.44 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Cordale Flott CB 6-1 165

Considered the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for LSU, Cordale Flott had 22 tackles which puts him in the 89.31 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 4 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 99.21 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Cordale Flott as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 38.84 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

The Arkansas Roster

The Players to Watch for Arkansas

Feleipe Franks QB 6-6 228

This season, Feleipe Franks has put up 1678 yards and 16 touchdowns. He has thrown 3 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 161.3thus far this season. Feleipe Franks has thrown 3 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Feleipe Franks has 186.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 89.08 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 78.0 times this season, which puts him in the 96.08 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 0.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Trelon Smith RB 5-9 185

This season, Trelon Smith has 441 rushing yards on 78 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 1 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Trelon Smith picked up 115 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 18 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.

Treylon Burks WR 6-3 232

This season, Treylon Burks picked up 508 yards. He caught the ball 34 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 5 receiving touchdowns this season.

Jonathan Marshall DL 6-3 317

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Arkansas, Jonathan Marshall has 26 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 6 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 94.35 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 1 times this season, which put him in the 70.91 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Jalen Catalon DB 5-10 189

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Arkansas, Jalen Catalon had 70 tackles which puts him in the 99.91 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 34.12 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Jalen Catalon as a ball hawker was able to pick off 3 passes last season, which puts him in the 99.03 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

LSU vs. Arkansas Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: LSU 33 Arkansas 29

Spread Pick: LSU -1 -110 bet365
Moneyline Pick: LSU -112 5Dimes
Total Pick: Under 64.5 -110 Bookmaker