College Football Picks, Predictions, and Previews: The Way It Oughtta Be

Maryland vs. Indiana 11/28/2020 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

The Maryland visits Indiana on 11/28/2020 at 12:00PM.

Maryland and Indiana face off in an important game for both teams as every game in this shortened season with limited or no fans in attendance means more. Maryland has a record of 2-1 this season. Indiana is 4-1 this season. Both have players to meet and know.

Maryland Team Defense Preview

Maryland has had 33 total defensive drives this season and they yield 6.27 plays per drive. The struggle is real. Maryland cannot find a way to get opposing offenses off the field. Three and outs are not common and if the team needs a three-and-out late in a game to get the ball back, it is just not happening.Offensives should lick their lips given their inability to stop anyone, this is one of the worst defenses in the country. The Defensive Coordinator coaching search threads on Maryland message boards are flights of fantasy. Passing plays make up 45.89% of their opponents’ play calls.Their opponents favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

This is a pushover defense. There is not enough push from the Defensive Line and not enough imagination from the Defensive Coordinator to cause chaos in the backfield.How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? Maryland can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 3.3 yards per carry. Sorry to say this about this front seven, but the best way to make an average offensive line look good is for them to face this horrid front seven. This is a team that is getting gashed too much for the tastes of their base. Linebackers are not stopping the bleeding well enough. Opponents have shown a relatively average level of explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play against them.

This is not a disruptive Defense and they get pushed over way too easily. Perhaps they are too vanilla with playcalling. This front seven is simply unable to make an impact, something must change or else the problems will repeat. Maryland is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

Maryland Team Offense Preview

Maryland has had 31 drives in non-garbage time minutes and they average 4.87 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, Maryland is not a team that runs many plays per drive. The offense is either prone to faltering and struggles to notch first downs or extremely explosive, we will need to find out a bit more to get answers. Maryland is an average offense when it comes to staying ahead of the chains, getting into 3rd and Short scenarios, and converting on 3rd and 4th Down. Maryland passes the football 54.97% of the time.Maryland tends to pass more than other teams.

Maryland is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to avoid negative yardage plays on the ground. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 2.95 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average offensive line as far as their ability to set up the running game. This is a team that is rather above-average when it comes to gashing defenses. The threat of the run should force opposing to play more honest and assignment defensive football is a must. They have an explosive running game and they are capable of breaking big yardage runs on First and Second Down. This puts a lot of pressure on Linebackers and Safeties.

Defenses have had average success disrupting the flow of the Maryland Offense. Front sevens are causing an average amount of trouble for the Offense. Maryland is a better passing team than running team this season.

Indiana Team Defense Preview

Indiana has had 65 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 5.0 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, Indiana is not a team that allows many plays per drive. This defense either gives up big plays quickly or induces a lot of three-and-outs, we shall find out more. Indiana has a generally average defense. Nothing too special about it, but they are capable of rising up when needed. Indiana opponents pass the football 52.92% of the time.Indiana tends to face teams that prefer to air it out or opponents want to air it out against them.

This is a pushover defense. There is not enough push from the Defensive Line and not enough imagination from the Defensive Coordinator to cause chaos in the backfield.How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? Indiana can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 3.4 yards per carry. Sorry to say this about this front seven, but the best way to make an average offensive line look good is for them to face this horrid front seven. This is a team that is getting gashed too much for the tastes of their base. Linebackers are not stopping the bleeding well enough. They are capable of giving up a long run, which is really demoralizing when the opposing team has the ball deep in their own territory.

Indiana has made the turnover belt, chain, pads, lunch pail or whatever gimmick they use change hands a lot. This is a Defense that causes pure aggravation. Getting more granual into the front seven and their ability to cause trouble, they are just average in this regard. Indiana is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

Indiana Team Offense Preview

Indiana has had 68 drives in non-garbage time minutes and they average 4.79 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, Indiana is not a team that runs many plays per drive. The offense is either prone to faltering and struggles to notch first downs or extremely explosive, we will need to find out a bit more to get answers. Struggles to get ahead of the chains and convert on third and fourth down are common, the offense can stagnate. Indiana passes the football 60.12% of the time.This is an Air Raid Offense team, they are going to pass the ball a lot and running plays are only used to keep opponents honest.

Indiana struggles with running the ball, getting zero or negative yard plays is disspiriting and the offensive line is not effectively making a good push. Poor playcalling, pre-snap adjustments or post-snap reads may be responsible and this could fall on the Quarterback, Offensive Coordinator, and Head Coach. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. Indiana can take credit for 1.89 yards per carry. So what does this mean? It means that the offensive line has been incredibly disappointing in their contribution to the ground game. When it comes to getting to that second level where linebackers have not crashed down on the line of scrimmage, they are getting stopped with ease. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to bust out big rushing plays.

Defenses have had trouble making big, disruptive plays against Indiana this season. Indiana is among the best in the country at keeping defensive front sevens at bay. Opposing defenses need their secondary players to step up and cause trouble in order for this Offense to be disrupted. Indiana is a better passing team than running team this season.

The Maryland Roster

The Players to Watch for Maryland

Taulia Tagovailoa QB 5-11 205

This season, Taulia Tagovailoa has put up 770 yards and 6 touchdowns. He has thrown 4 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 156.4thus far this season. Taulia Tagovailoa has thrown 4 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Taulia Tagovailoa has 61.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 68.2 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 18.0 times this season, which puts him in the 57.05 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 2.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Jake Funk RB 5-10 205

This season, Jake Funk has 331 rushing yards on 43 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 2 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Jake Funk picked up 35 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 6 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.

Dontay Demus WR 6-3 217

This season, Dontay Demus picked up 228 yards. He caught the ball 17 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 2 receiving touchdowns this season.

Ami Finau DL 6-2 330

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Maryland, Ami Finau has 9 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 0 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 22.49 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 0 times this season, which put him in the 31.47 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Jordan Mosley DB 6-1 210.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Maryland, Jordan Mosley had 23 tackles which puts him in the 74.06 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 1 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 75.36 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Jordan Mosley as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 39.16 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

The Indiana Roster

The Players to Watch for Indiana

Michael Penix Jr. QB 6-3 218

This season, Michael Penix Jr. has put up 1561 yards and 14 touchdowns. He has thrown 4 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 142.9thus far this season. Michael Penix Jr. has thrown 4 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Michael Penix Jr. has -4.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 19.67 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 16.0 times this season, which puts him in the 53.44 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 2.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Stevie Scott RB 6-2 231

This season, Stevie Scott has 325 rushing yards on 95 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 5 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Stevie Scott picked up 48 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 10 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Ty Fryfogle WR 6-2 214

This season, Ty Fryfogle picked up 642 yards. He caught the ball 31 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 7 receiving touchdowns this season.

Jerome Johnson DL 6-3 304

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Indiana, Jerome Johnson has 14 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 4 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 85.32 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 3 times this season, which put him in the 91.71 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Tiawan Mullen DB 5-10 176.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Indiana, Tiawan Mullen had 27 tackles which puts him in the 81.09 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 4 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 97.67 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 2 times last season. Tiawan Mullen as a ball hawker was able to pick off 2 passes last season, which puts him in the 95.39 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Maryland vs. Indiana Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: Maryland 24 Indiana 36

Spread Pick: Indiana -10.5 -181 matchbook
Moneyline Pick: Indiana -394 SportsInteraction
Total Pick: Under 65 -114 Bookmaker