College Football Picks, Predictions, and Previews: The Way It Oughtta Be

Memphis vs. Navy 11/28/2020 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

The Memphis visits Navy on 11/28/2020 at 7:00PM.

Memphis and Navy face off in an important game for both teams as every game in this shortened season with limited or no fans in attendance means more. Memphis has a record of 5-2 this season. Navy is 3-4 this season. Both have players to meet and know.

Memphis Team Defense Preview

Memphis has had 83 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 5.8 plays per drive. Memphis lets opponents run a lot of plays per drive and in the Fourth Quarter, this team could be gassed. Memphis has a generally average defense. Nothing too special about it, but they are capable of rising up when needed. Memphis opponents pass the football 58.42% of the time.They are a team that faces a lot of Air Raid Offenses.

Memphis is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to create negative yardage plays on the ground. How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? Memphis can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 2.86 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average defense when it comes to how offensive lines control or fail to control them on the ground. This is also a team that is allowing running backs and quarterbacks to get to the second-level in an average fashion. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to give up big rushing plays.

This Defense has had average success disrupting the flow of the opposing offense.. Getting more granual into the front seven and their ability to cause trouble, they are just average in this regard. Memphis is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

Memphis Team Offense Preview

Memphis has had 87 drives in non-garbage time minutes and they average 5.85 plays per drive. Memphis runs a lot of plays per drive and this could wear an opposing defense down. Memphis is an average offense when it comes to staying ahead of the chains, getting into 3rd and Short scenarios, and converting on 3rd and 4th Down. Memphis passes the football 53.83% of the time.Memphis tends to pass more than other teams.

Memphis struggles with running the ball, getting zero or negative yard plays is disspiriting and the offensive line is not effectively making a good push. Poor playcalling, pre-snap adjustments or post-snap reads may be responsible and this could fall on the Quarterback, Offensive Coordinator, and Head Coach. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. Memphis can take credit for 2.66 yards per carry. So what does this mean? It means that the offensive line has been incredibly disappointing in their contribution to the ground game. This is also a team that is getting to the second-level in an average fashion. Offensive line and running backs are average in this regard. They feature a relatively average explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play, but it is not something to count on from them.

Defenses have had average success disrupting the flow of the Memphis Offense. Front sevens are causing an average amount of trouble for the Offense. Memphis is a better passing team than running team this season.

Navy Team Defense Preview

Navy has had 68 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 6.03 plays per drive. The struggle is real. Navy cannot find a way to get opposing offenses off the field. Three and outs are not common and if the team needs a three-and-out late in a game to get the ball back, it is just not happening.Offensives should lick their lips given their inability to stop anyone, this is one of the worst defenses in the country. The Defensive Coordinator coaching search threads on Navy message boards are flights of fantasy. Passing plays make up 40.49% of their opponents’ play calls.Their opponents favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

This is a pushover defense. There is not enough push from the Defensive Line and not enough imagination from the Defensive Coordinator to cause chaos in the backfield.Opponent rushing yards attributed to their offensive line this season comes out to 3.44 yards per carry. Sorry to say this about this front seven, but the best way to make an average offensive line look good is for them to face this horrid front seven. Running backs should look forward to this porous defense filled with poor tacklers who take terrible angles. Long breakout runs against this Defense are far too common. This is a very porous rushing defense that is incapable of preventing a situation where their safeties chase down a running back or quarterback.

This is not a disruptive Defense and they get pushed over way too easily. Perhaps they are too vanilla with playcalling. This front seven is simply unable to make an impact, something must change or else the problems will repeat. Navy has shown themselves to be better at stopping the pass than the run this season.

Navy Team Offense Preview

Navy has had 71 total drives this season and they generate 5.11 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, Navy is not a team that runs many plays per drive. The offense is either prone to faltering and struggles to notch first downs or extremely explosive, we will need to find out a bit more to get answers. Struggles to get ahead of the chains and convert on third and fourth down are common, the offense can stagnate. Passing plays make up 24.52% of their play calls.They favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

On first downs, getting ahead of the chains is crucial and running the ball well on first down can get a team there, Navy has done a good job avoiding the negative yardage rushing plays. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. Navy can take credit for 2.62 yards per carry. So what does this mean? It means that the offensive line has been incredibly disappointing in their contribution to the ground game. When it comes to getting to that second level where linebackers have not crashed down on the line of scrimmage, they are getting stopped with ease. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to bust out big rushing plays.

Defenses have had trouble making big, disruptive plays against Navy this season. Front sevens are causing an average amount of trouble for the Offense. Navy is a better passing team than running team this season.

The Memphis Roster

The Players to Watch for Memphis

Brady White QB 6-3 210

This season, Brady White has put up 2397 yards and 23 touchdowns. He has thrown 6 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 156.0thus far this season. Brady White has thrown 6 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Brady White has 68.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 70.82 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 46.0 times this season, which puts him in the 84.1 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 2.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Rodrigues Clark RB 6-0 200

This season, Rodrigues Clark has 500 rushing yards on 117 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 2 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Rodrigues Clark picked up 35 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 8 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Calvin Austin III WR 5-9 162

This season, Calvin Austin III picked up 820 yards. He caught the ball 46 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 7 receiving touchdowns this season.

O’Bryan Goodson DL 6-1 297

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Memphis, O’Bryan Goodson has 24 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 7 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 95.93 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 3 times this season, which put him in the 91.71 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 1 fumbles this season.

Quindell Johnson DB 6-1 195.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Memphis, Quindell Johnson had 48 tackles which puts him in the 96.73 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 2 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 88.98 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Quindell Johnson as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 39.16 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Jacobi Francis CB 5-10 180

Considered the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Memphis, Jacobi Francis had 20 tackles which puts him in the 80.43 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 2 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 92.66 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Jacobi Francis as a ball hawker was able to pick off 2 passes last season, which puts him in the 94.5 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

The Navy Roster

The Players to Watch for Navy

Dalen Morris QB 6-1 206

This season, Dalen Morris has put up 555 yards and 3 touchdowns. He has thrown 2 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 144.0thus far this season. Dalen Morris has thrown 2 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Dalen Morris has 56.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 66.07 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 65.0 times this season, which puts him in the 90.33 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 2.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Mychal Cooper WR 6-5 221

This season, Mychal Cooper picked up 199 yards. He caught the ball 12 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 2 receiving touchdowns this season.

Jackson Perkins DT 6-6 257

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Navy, Jackson Perkins has 17 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 1 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 59.39 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 0 times this season, which put him in the 34.51 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Jay Warren DE 6-1 257

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Navy, Jay Warren has 17 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 1 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 51.58 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 1 times this season, which put him in the 70.17 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 1 fumbles this season.

Kevin Brennan S 5-11 199.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Navy, Kevin Brennan had 51 tackles which puts him in the 97.72 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 33.65 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Kevin Brennan as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 39.16 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Michael McMorris CB 5-9 166

Considered the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Navy, Michael McMorris had 33 tackles which puts him in the 96.48 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 35.17 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Michael McMorris as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 38.07 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Memphis vs. Navy Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: Memphis 42 Navy 26

Spread Pick: Memphis -13.5 -109 Pinnacle Sports
Moneyline Pick: Memphis -470 matchbook
Total Pick: Over 62 -109 Pinnacle Sports