College Football Picks, Predictions, and Previews: The Way It Oughtta Be

Middle Tennessee vs. Troy 11/21/2020 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

The Middle Tennessee visits Troy on 11/21/2020 at 3:30PM.

Middle Tennessee and Troy face off in an important game for both teams as every game in this shortened season with limited or no fans in attendance means more. Middle Tennessee has a record of 2-6 this season. Troy is 4-3 this season. Both have players to meet and know.

Middle Tennessee Team Defense Preview

Middle Tennessee has had 95 total defensive drives this season and they yield 5.48 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive opponents run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Middle Tennessee has a generally average defense. Nothing too special about it, but they are capable of rising up when needed. Passing plays make up 47.41% of their opponents’ play calls.Opponents typically have some form of run/pass balance against them.

This is a pushover defense. There is not enough push from the Defensive Line and not enough imagination from the Defensive Coordinator to cause chaos in the backfield.Opponent rushing yards attributed to their offensive line this season comes out to 3.21 yards per carry. This defense lets offensive lines have too much control over them on the ground, too much push from the opposing offensive line. This is also a team that is allowing running backs and quarterbacks to get to the second-level in an average fashion. They are capable of giving up a long run, which is really demoralizing when the opposing team has the ball deep in their own territory.

This is not a disruptive Defense and they get pushed over way too easily. Perhaps they are too vanilla with playcalling. This front seven is simply unable to make an impact, something must change or else the problems will repeat. Middle Tennessee has shown themselves to be better at stopping the pass than the run this season.

Middle Tennessee Team Offense Preview

Middle Tennessee has had 93 total drives this season and they generate 5.4 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive they run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Middle Tennessee is an average offense when it comes to staying ahead of the chains, getting into 3rd and Short scenarios, and converting on 3rd and 4th Down. Passing plays make up 55.78% of their play calls.Middle Tennessee tends to pass more than other teams.

Middle Tennessee is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to avoid negative yardage plays on the ground. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 2.39 yards per carry. So what does this mean? It means that the offensive line has been incredibly disappointing in their contribution to the ground game. When it comes to getting to that second level where linebackers have not crashed down on the line of scrimmage, they are getting stopped with ease. They feature a relatively average explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play, but it is not something to count on from them.

Defenses have had average success disrupting the flow of the Middle Tennessee Offense. Front sevens are causing an average amount of trouble for the Offense. Middle Tennessee is a better passing team than running team this season.

Troy Team Defense Preview

Troy has had 85 total defensive drives this season and they yield 5.41 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive opponents run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Opponents face third and long situations a lot against this defense. This is a defense that forces opponents to commit penalties, have compromised offensive line play, and fail to convert on crunch possessions. Passing plays make up 48.48% of their opponents’ play calls.Opponents typically have some form of run/pass balance against them.

Troy is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to create negative yardage plays on the ground. How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? Troy can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 2.67 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average defense when it comes to how offensive lines control or fail to control them on the ground. When it comes to getting to that second level, running backs are getting stopped. This defense does not allow themselves to be gashed. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to give up big rushing plays.

This Defense has had average success disrupting the flow of the opposing offense.. Getting more granual into the front seven and their ability to cause trouble, they are just average in this regard. Troy is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

Troy Team Offense Preview

Troy has had 83 drives in non-garbage time minutes and they average 5.64 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive they run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Troy is an average offense when it comes to staying ahead of the chains, getting into 3rd and Short scenarios, and converting on 3rd and 4th Down. Passing plays make up 64.32% of their play calls.This is an Air Raid Offense team, they are going to pass the ball a lot and running plays are only used to keep opponents honest.

Troy struggles with running the ball, getting zero or negative yard plays is disspiriting and the offensive line is not effectively making a good push. Poor playcalling, pre-snap adjustments or post-snap reads may be responsible and this could fall on the Quarterback, Offensive Coordinator, and Head Coach. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. Troy can take credit for 2.76 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average offensive line as far as their ability to set up the running game. When it comes to getting to that second level where linebackers have not crashed down on the line of scrimmage, they are getting stopped with ease. They feature a relatively average explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play, but it is not something to count on from them.

Defenses have had average success disrupting the flow of the Troy Offense. Front sevens are causing an average amount of trouble for the Offense. Troy is a better passing team than running team this season.

The Middle Tennessee Roster

The Players to Watch for Middle Tennessee

Asher O’Hara QB 6-0 185

This season, Asher O’Hara has put up 1750 yards and 12 touchdowns. He has thrown 8 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 129.7thus far this season. Asher O’Hara has thrown 8 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Asher O’Hara has 515.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 98.98 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 150.0 times this season, which puts him in the 100.0 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 7.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Chaton Mobley RB 6-1 229

This season, Chaton Mobley has 309 rushing yards on 67 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 3 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Chaton Mobley picked up 46 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 8 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 2 receiving touchdowns this season.

Jarrin Pierce WR 5-11 190

This season, Jarrin Pierce picked up 541 yards. He caught the ball 55 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 3 receiving touchdowns this season.

Rakavian Poydras DT 6-1 268

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Middle Tennessee, Rakavian Poydras has 34 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 1 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 61.41 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 0 times this season, which put him in the 34.71 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Jordan Ferguson DE 6-2 255

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Middle Tennessee, Jordan Ferguson has 38 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 4 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 86.99 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 2 times this season, which put him in the 84.25 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Reed Blankenship S 6-1 200

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Middle Tennessee, Reed Blankenship had 68 tackles which puts him in the 99.81 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 1 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 76.48 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Reed Blankenship as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 39.44 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Decorian Patterson CB 6-0 184

Considered the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Middle Tennessee, Decorian Patterson had 41 tackles which puts him in the 99.06 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 5 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 100.0 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 2 times last season. Decorian Patterson as a ball hawker was able to pick off 1 passes last season, which puts him in the 84.75 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

The Troy Roster

The Players to Watch for Troy

Gunnar Watson QB 6-3 208

This season, Gunnar Watson has put up 1159 yards and 10 touchdowns. He has thrown 3 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 145.3thus far this season. Gunnar Watson has thrown 3 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Gunnar Watson has -47.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 3.24 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 21.0 times this season, which puts him in the 64.68 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 0.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Kimani Vidal RB 5-8 214

This season, Kimani Vidal has 364 rushing yards on 58 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 2 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Kimani Vidal picked up 100 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 12 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Kaylon Geiger WR 5-10 170

This season, Kaylon Geiger picked up 523 yards. He caught the ball 41 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.

Will Choloh Jr. DT 6-0 289

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Troy, Will Choloh Jr. has 24 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 6 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 97.82 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 2 times this season, which put him in the 92.23 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 1 fumbles this season.

Devon Reaves DE 6-4 259

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Troy, Devon Reaves has 10 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 2 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 69.21 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 0 times this season, which put him in the 32.27 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Dell Pettus S 5-11 196

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Troy, Dell Pettus had 40 tackles which puts him in the 94.91 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 1 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 76.48 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Dell Pettus as a ball hawker was able to pick off 1 passes last season, which puts him in the 86.34 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Shon Spralling CB 5-11 186

Considered the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Troy, Shon Spralling had 21 tackles which puts him in the 87.42 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 1 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 80.66 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Shon Spralling as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 38.84 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Middle Tennessee vs. Troy Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: Middle Tennessee 25 Troy 34

Spread Pick: Middle Tennessee +13 -110 Pinnacle Sports
Moneyline Pick: Troy -419 SportsInteraction
Total Pick: Under 60 -110 Bookmaker