College Football Picks, Predictions, and Previews: The Way It Oughtta Be

Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss 11/28/2020 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

The Mississippi State visits Ole Miss on 11/28/2020 at 4:00PM.

Mississippi State and Ole Miss face off in an important game for both teams as every game in this shortened season with limited or no fans in attendance means more. Mississippi State has a record of 2-5 this season. Ole Miss is 3-4 this season. Both have players to meet and know.

Mississippi State Team Defense Preview

Mississippi State has had 86 total defensive drives this season and they yield 5.09 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, Mississippi State is not a team that allows many plays per drive. This defense either gives up big plays quickly or induces a lot of three-and-outs, we shall find out more. Mississippi State has a generally average defense. Nothing too special about it, but they are capable of rising up when needed. Mississippi State opponents pass the football 54.34% of the time.Mississippi State tends to face teams that prefer to air it out or opponents want to air it out against them.

Mississippi State is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to create negative yardage plays on the ground. Opponent rushing yards attributed to their offensive line this season comes out to 2.84 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average defense when it comes to how offensive lines control or fail to control them on the ground. This is also a team that is allowing running backs and quarterbacks to get to the second-level in an average fashion. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to give up big rushing plays.

This Defense has had average success disrupting the flow of the opposing offense.. Getting more granual into the front seven and their ability to cause trouble, they are just average in this regard. Mississippi State has shown themselves to be better at stopping the pass than the run this season.

Mississippi State Team Offense Preview

Mississippi State has had 85 total drives this season and they generate 5.33 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive they run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Mississippi State is an average offense when it comes to staying ahead of the chains, getting into 3rd and Short scenarios, and converting on 3rd and 4th Down. Mississippi State passes the football 81.02% of the time.This is an Air Raid Offense team, they are going to pass the ball a lot and running plays are only used to keep opponents honest.

On first downs, getting ahead of the chains is crucial and running the ball well on first down can get a team there, Mississippi State has done a good job avoiding the negative yardage rushing plays. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 2.69 yards per carry. So what does this mean? It means that the offensive line has been incredibly disappointing in their contribution to the ground game. When it comes to getting to that second level where linebackers have not crashed down on the line of scrimmage, they are getting stopped with ease. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to bust out big rushing plays.

Defenses have been able to impose their will on the Mississippi State Offense this season. There has been a relatively good job done by this Offensive Line to prevent opposing front sevens from causing problems consistently. Mississippi State has shown themselves to be a better running team than passing team this season.

Ole Miss Team Defense Preview

Ole Miss has had 70 total defensive drives this season and they yield 6.17 plays per drive. The struggle is real. Ole Miss cannot find a way to get opposing offenses off the field. Three and outs are not common and if the team needs a three-and-out late in a game to get the ball back, it is just not happening.Offensives should lick their lips given their inability to stop anyone, this is one of the worst defenses in the country. The Defensive Coordinator coaching search threads on Ole Miss message boards are flights of fantasy. Ole Miss opponents pass the football 44.68% of the time.Their opponents favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

Defenses want to stop offenses from getting into a 3rd Down where the options are plentiful. Unfortunately, this defense is too porous to limit those choices. How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? Ole Miss can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 3.54 yards per carry. Sorry to say this about this front seven, but the best way to make an average offensive line look good is for them to face this horrid front seven. Running backs should look forward to this porous defense filled with poor tacklers who take terrible angles. Long breakout runs against this Defense are far too common. This is a very porous rushing defense that is incapable of preventing a situation where their safeties chase down a running back or quarterback.

This Defense has had average success disrupting the flow of the opposing offense.. Getting more granual into the front seven and their ability to cause trouble, they are just average in this regard. Ole Miss has shown themselves to be better at stopping the pass than the run this season.

Ole Miss Team Offense Preview

Ole Miss has had 77 total drives this season and they generate 6.04 plays per drive. When you are among the best at plays per drive, you are certainly a team that aims to wear down the opposition with a high play count or with long, physical grinding drives that eat up a lot of clock. We need to find out more here when it comes to Ole Miss. Any defense is in for a challenge with Ole Miss, given their ability to accrue more than 5 yards on 1st Downs and their ability to convert on 3rd and 4th Downs. They put a lot of pressure on opposing defenses.Passing plays make up 41.72% of their play calls.They favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

Ole Miss is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to avoid negative yardage plays on the ground. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 2.93 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average offensive line as far as their ability to set up the running game. This is also a team that is getting to the second-level in an average fashion. Offensive line and running backs are average in this regard. They feature a relatively average explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play, but it is not something to count on from them.

Defenses have had average success disrupting the flow of the Ole Miss Offense. Front sevens of opposing defenses are causing a lot of problems. Ole Miss is a better passing team than running team this season.

The Mississippi State Roster

The Players to Watch for Mississippi State

K.J. Costello QB 6-5 225

This season, K.J. Costello has put up 1283 yards and 6 touchdowns. He has thrown 10 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 116.7thus far this season. K.J. Costello has thrown 10 interceptions this season.As a rusher, K.J. Costello has -65.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 2.3 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 24.0 times this season, which puts him in the 66.89 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 0.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Jo’quavious Marks RB 5-10 195

This season, Jo’quavious Marks has 147 rushing yards on 41 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 1 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Jo’quavious Marks picked up 184 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 44 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Osirus Mitchell WR 6-5 210

This season, Osirus Mitchell picked up 389 yards. He caught the ball 33 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 3 receiving touchdowns this season.

Jaden Crumedy DT 6-5 300

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Mississippi State, Jaden Crumedy has 21 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 2 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 75.12 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 2 times this season, which put him in the 90.85 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Marquiss Spencer DE 6-4 300

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Mississippi State, Marquiss Spencer has 28 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 8 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 97.2 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 3 times this season, which put him in the 91.71 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 1 fumbles this season.

Shawn Preston JR. S 6-0 210.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Mississippi State, Shawn Preston JR. had 36 tackles which puts him in the 90.99 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 3 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 95.56 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Shawn Preston JR. as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 39.16 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Martin Emerson CB 6-2 195

Considered the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Mississippi State, Martin Emerson had 48 tackles which puts him in the 99.08 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 2 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 92.66 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Martin Emerson as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 38.07 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

The Ole Miss Roster

The Players to Watch for Ole Miss

Matt Corral QB 6-1 205

This season, Matt Corral has put up 2359 yards and 22 touchdowns. He has thrown 9 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 189.4thus far this season. Matt Corral has thrown 9 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Matt Corral has 301.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 93.44 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 77.0 times this season, which puts him in the 95.08 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 3.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Jerrion Ealy RB 5-9 190

This season, Jerrion Ealy has 608 rushing yards on 117 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 8 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Jerrion Ealy picked up 113 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 11 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.

Elijah Moore WR 5-9 185

This season, Elijah Moore picked up 1054 yards. He caught the ball 74 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 8 receiving touchdowns this season.

Sincere David DT 6-0 320

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Ole Miss, Sincere David has 8 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 0 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 25.82 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 0 times this season, which put him in the 34.51 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Ryder Anderson DE 6-6 275

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Ole Miss, Ryder Anderson has 32 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 5 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 90.07 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 2 times this season, which put him in the 83.9 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Keidron Smith DB 6-2 195.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Ole Miss, Keidron Smith had 47 tackles which puts him in the 96.42 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 33.65 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Keidron Smith as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 39.16 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: Mississippi State 30 Ole Miss 37

Spread Pick: Mississippi State +10 -112 Pinnacle Sports
Moneyline Pick: Ole Miss -320 5Dimes
Total Pick: Under 69.5 -111 Pinnacle Sports