College Football Picks, Predictions, and Previews: The Way It Oughtta Be

Navy vs. Army 12/12/2020 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

The Navy visits Army on 12/12/2020 at 3:00PM.

Navy and Army face off in an important game for both teams as every game in this shortened season with limited or no fans in attendance means more. Navy has a record of 3-6 this season. Army is 7-2 this season. Both have players to meet and know.

Navy Team Defense Preview

Navy has had 90 total defensive drives this season and they yield 5.88 plays per drive. The struggle is real. Navy cannot find a way to get opposing offenses off the field. Three and outs are not common and if the team needs a three-and-out late in a game to get the ball back, it is just not happening.Navy has shown an inability to stop defenses from converting on 4th Downs and they let opponents get into manageable 3rd Down situations where an RPO may be especially deadly. Passing plays make up 41.59% of their opponents’ play calls.Their opponents favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

This is a pushover defense. There is not enough push from the Defensive Line and not enough imagination from the Defensive Coordinator to cause chaos in the backfield.Opponent rushing yards attributed to their offensive line this season comes out to 3.25 yards per carry. Sorry to say this about this front seven, but the best way to make an average offensive line look good is for them to face this horrid front seven. This is a team that is getting gashed too much for the tastes of their base. Linebackers are not stopping the bleeding well enough. They are capable of giving up a long run, which is really demoralizing when the opposing team has the ball deep in their own territory.

This is not a disruptive Defense and they get pushed over way too easily. Perhaps they are too vanilla with playcalling. This front seven is simply unable to make an impact, something must change or else the problems will repeat. Navy has shown themselves to be better at stopping the pass than the run this season.

Navy Team Offense Preview

Navy has had 94 drives in non-garbage time minutes and they average 5.18 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, Navy is not a team that runs many plays per drive. The offense is either prone to faltering and struggles to notch first downs or extremely explosive, we will need to find out a bit more to get answers. Struggles to get ahead of the chains and convert on third and fourth down are common, the offense can stagnate. Navy passes the football 24.44% of the time.They favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

On first downs, getting ahead of the chains is crucial and running the ball well on first down can get a team there, Navy has done a good job avoiding the negative yardage rushing plays. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. Navy can take credit for 2.68 yards per carry. So what does this mean? It means that the offensive line has been incredibly disappointing in their contribution to the ground game. When it comes to getting to that second level where linebackers have not crashed down on the line of scrimmage, they are getting stopped with ease. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to bust out big rushing plays.

Defenses have had trouble making big, disruptive plays against Navy this season. Front sevens of opposing defenses are causing a lot of problems. Navy has shown themselves to be a better running team than passing team this season.

Army Team Defense Preview

Army has had 89 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 4.94 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, Army is not a team that allows many plays per drive. This defense either gives up big plays quickly or induces a lot of three-and-outs, we shall find out more. Opponents face third and long situations a lot against this defense. This is a defense that forces opponents to commit penalties, have compromised offensive line play, and fail to convert on crunch possessions. Army opponents pass the football 48.86% of the time.Opponents typically have some form of run/pass balance against them.

Army opponents have struggled with running the ball and this defense has crushed the spirits of their opponents with zero or negative yard plays. 4th and Short is not a cake walk against this defense, maybe passing on 4th and Short or having some sort of RPO is the way to go here because if an Offensive Coordinator thinks that they can just line and run a Quarterback Sneak or hand it off to a tailback, they are mistaken. How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? Army can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 2.37 yards per carry. Opponent offensive lines have been simply unable to support their running games against this defense. This is also a team that is allowing running backs and quarterbacks to get to the second-level in an average fashion. Opponents have shown a relatively average level of explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play against them.

Army has made the turnover belt, chain, pads, lunch pail or whatever gimmick they use change hands a lot. This is a Defense that causes pure aggravation. Army should have a sign ready for opponents near the Visitor Locker Room that says “Welcome to Hell”, this front seven is deep and they cause a lot of problems. Army is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

Army Team Offense Preview

Army has had 82 total drives this season and they generate 6.02 plays per drive. When you are among the best at plays per drive, you are certainly a team that aims to wear down the opposition with a high play count or with long, physical grinding drives that eat up a lot of clock. We need to find out more here when it comes to Army. Army is an average offense when it comes to staying ahead of the chains, getting into 3rd and Short scenarios, and converting on 3rd and 4th Down. Passing plays make up 13.36% of their play calls.They favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

Move the pile forward, falling forward, making progress, ensuring north-south running, smart Quarterback reads, well-adjusted alignments to ensure leverage, and an offensive line that is getting a great push forward are cornerstones of this offense. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 3.04 yards per carry. This offensive line may be underappreciated, even though the running backs get the attention. The Army coaching staff really deserves credit for how they prepared this offensive line, but they could be a little bit better! This is also a team that is getting to the second-level in an average fashion. Offensive line and running backs are average in this regard. They feature a relatively average explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play, but it is not something to count on from them.

Army has bullied and controlled defenses this season, defenses have not been able to dictate what this offense is able to do to them. Opponents should consider a containment strategy. Front sevens are causing an average amount of trouble for the Offense. Army has shown themselves to be a better running team than passing team this season.

The Navy Roster

The Players to Watch for Navy

Dalen Morris QB 6-1 206

This season, Dalen Morris has put up 570 yards and 3 touchdowns. He has thrown 2 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 138.4thus far this season. Dalen Morris has thrown 2 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Dalen Morris has 48.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 61.88 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 67.0 times this season, which puts him in the 88.43 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 2.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Mychal Cooper WR 6-5 221

This season, Mychal Cooper picked up 199 yards. He caught the ball 12 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 2 receiving touchdowns this season.

Jackson Perkins DT 6-6 257

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Navy, Jackson Perkins has 23 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 4 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 89.01 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 0 times this season, which put him in the 32.96 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Jay Warren DE 6-1 257.0

The leading tackler among Defensive Ends for Navy, Jay Warren has 19 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 1 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 47.25 percentile among Defensive Ends. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 1 times this season, which put him in the 66.28 percentile among all Defensive Ends in College Football. He has forced 1 fumbles this season.

Kevin Brennan S 5-11 199.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Navy, Kevin Brennan had 61 tackles which puts him in the 97.7 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss this season, which puts him in the 31.97 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 0 times this season. Kevin Brennan as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes this season, which puts him in the 37.97 percentile among returning secondary position players this season.

Michael McMorris CB 5-9 166

Considered the leading tackler among Cornerbacks for Navy, Michael McMorris had 35 tackles which puts him in the 95.75 percentile among Corners. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 2 tackles for loss this season, which puts him in the 91.5 percentile among Corners. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 0 times this season. Michael McMorris as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes this season, which puts him in the 36.4 percentile among Corners this season.

The Army Roster

The Players to Watch for Army

Christian Anderson QB 6-1 195

This season, Christian Anderson has put up 158 yards and 1 touchdowns. He has thrown 3 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 63.9thus far this season. Christian Anderson has thrown 3 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Christian Anderson has 313.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 92.59 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 72.0 times this season, which puts him in the 89.81 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 4.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Jakobi Buchanan RB 6-0 260

This season, Jakobi Buchanan has 383 rushing yards on 87 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 5 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Jakobi Buchanan picked up 0 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 0 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Michael Roberts WR 6-3 235

This season, Michael Roberts picked up 106 yards. He caught the ball 7 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.

Nolan Cockrill DL 6-3 280.0

The leading tackler among Defensive Ends for Army, Nolan Cockrill has 19 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 6 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 90.39 percentile among Defensive Ends. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 2 times this season, which put him in the 80.93 percentile among all Defensive Ends in College Football. He has forced 1 fumbles this season.

Cedrick Cunningham Jr. DB 6-0 215.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Army, Cedrick Cunningham Jr. had 57 tackles which puts him in the 97.15 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 7 tackles for loss this season, which puts him in the 99.45 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 2 times this season. Cedrick Cunningham Jr. as a ball hawker was able to pick off 1 passes this season, which puts him in the 83.84 percentile among returning secondary position players this season.

Navy vs. Army Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: Navy 20 Army 38

Spread Pick: Army -7 -107 Pinnacle Sports
Moneyline Pick: Army -265 Bookmaker
Total Pick: Over 37.5 -102 Pinnacle Sports