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Nevada vs. New Mexico 11/14/2020 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

The Nevada visits New Mexico on 11/14/2020 at 6:30PM.

Nevada and New Mexico face off in an important game for both teams as every game in this shortened season with limited or no fans in attendance means more. Nevada has a record of 3-0 this season. New Mexico is 0-2 this season. Both have players to meet and know.

Nevada Team Defense Preview

Nevada has had 34 total defensive drives this season and they yield 5.35 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive opponents run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Opponents face third and long situations a lot against this defense. This is a defense that forces opponents to commit penalties, have compromised offensive line play, and fail to convert on crunch possessions. Nevada opponents pass the football 56.04% of the time.They are a team that faces a lot of Air Raid Offenses.

Defenses want to stop offenses from getting into a 3rd Down where the options are plentiful. Unfortunately, this defense is too porous to limit those choices. How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? Nevada can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 3.23 yards per carry. This defense lets offensive lines have too much control over them on the ground, too much push from the opposing offensive line. This is also a team that is allowing running backs and quarterbacks to get to the second-level in an average fashion. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to give up big rushing plays.

This is not a disruptive Defense and they get pushed over way too easily. Perhaps they are too vanilla with playcalling. This front seven is simply unable to make an impact, something must change or else the problems will repeat. Nevada has shown themselves to be better at stopping the pass than the run this season.

Nevada Team Offense Preview

Nevada has had 34 total drives this season and they generate 5.85 plays per drive. Nevada runs a lot of plays per drive and this could wear an opposing defense down. Nevada has shown a capability to be explosive on first and second down to avoid third downs and has converted well (relatively) on 3rd and 4th Down situations. Passing plays make up 67.84% of their play calls.This is an Air Raid Offense team, they are going to pass the ball a lot and running plays are only used to keep opponents honest.

Nevada struggles with running the ball, getting zero or negative yard plays is disspiriting and the offensive line is not effectively making a good push. Poor playcalling, pre-snap adjustments or post-snap reads may be responsible and this could fall on the Quarterback, Offensive Coordinator, and Head Coach. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 2.38 yards per carry. So what does this mean? It means that the offensive line has been incredibly disappointing in their contribution to the ground game. This is a team that is rather above-average when it comes to gashing defenses. The threat of the run should force opposing to play more honest and assignment defensive football is a must. They have an explosive running game and they are capable of breaking big yardage runs on First and Second Down. This puts a lot of pressure on Linebackers and Safeties.

Defenses have had average success disrupting the flow of the Nevada Offense. Front sevens of opposing defenses are causing a lot of problems. Nevada is a better passing team than running team this season.

New Mexico Team Defense Preview

New Mexico has had 27 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 5.19 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive opponents run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. New Mexico has shown an inability to stop defenses from converting on 4th Downs and they let opponents get into manageable 3rd Down situations where an RPO may be especially deadly. New Mexico opponents pass the football 63.57% of the time.They are a team that faces a lot of Air Raid Offenses.

New Mexico opponents have struggled with running the ball and this defense has crushed the spirits of their opponents with zero or negative yard plays. 4th and Short is not a cake walk against this defense, maybe passing on 4th and Short or having some sort of RPO is the way to go here because if an Offensive Coordinator thinks that they can just line and run a Quarterback Sneak or hand it off to a tailback, they are mistaken. How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? New Mexico can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 2.92 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average defense when it comes to how offensive lines control or fail to control them on the ground. When it comes to getting to that second level, running backs are getting stopped. This defense does not allow themselves to be gashed. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to give up big rushing plays.

This is not a disruptive Defense and they get pushed over way too easily. Perhaps they are too vanilla with playcalling. This front seven is simply unable to make an impact, something must change or else the problems will repeat. New Mexico is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

New Mexico Team Offense Preview

New Mexico has had 27 drives in non-garbage time minutes and they average 5.26 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive they run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. New Mexico is an average offense when it comes to staying ahead of the chains, getting into 3rd and Short scenarios, and converting on 3rd and 4th Down. New Mexico passes the football 50.70% of the time.Relatively speaking, this is a team that favors run/pass balance.

On first downs, getting ahead of the chains is crucial and running the ball well on first down can get a team there, New Mexico has done a good job avoiding the negative yardage rushing plays. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. New Mexico can take credit for 3.42 yards per carry. This is an elite offensive line when it comes to generating a push for the running game. They know how to create creases for running backs to break loose. Playing 7 in a box may not be enough for opposing defenses, this is a great O-Line. The offensive line and running back corps deserve a lot of credit for gashing defenses with their running game like the way they have this season. They are capable of busting out a long run, which is really good when the team has the ball in their own territory.

Defenses have had average success disrupting the flow of the New Mexico Offense. Front sevens are causing an average amount of trouble for the Offense. New Mexico has shown themselves to be a better running team than passing team this season.

The Nevada Roster

The Players to Watch for Nevada

Carson Strong QB 6-4 215

This season, Carson Strong has put up 1181 yards and 9 touchdowns. He has thrown 0 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 171.7thus far this season. Carson Strong has thrown 0 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Carson Strong has -77.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 0.36 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 12.0 times this season, which puts him in the 53.56 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 0.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Toa Taua RB 5-9 210

This season, Toa Taua has 193 rushing yards on 24 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 2 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Toa Taua picked up 43 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 8 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Romeo Doubs WR 6-2 200

This season, Romeo Doubs picked up 465 yards. He caught the ball 25 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 5 receiving touchdowns this season.

Dom Peterson DT 6-0 285

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Nevada, Dom Peterson has 12 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 2 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 78.14 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 1 times this season, which put him in the 80.15 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Sam Hammond DE 6-5 265

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Nevada, Sam Hammond has 10 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 4 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 89.2 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 1 times this season, which put him in the 72.46 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Tyson Williams DB 5-9 200

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Nevada, Tyson Williams had 16 tackles which puts him in the 67.64 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 34.52 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Tyson Williams as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 40.1 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

The New Mexico Roster

The Players to Watch for New Mexico

Tevaka Tuioti QB 6-2 194

This season, Tevaka Tuioti has put up 475 yards and 4 touchdowns. He has thrown 1 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 133.5thus far this season. Tevaka Tuioti has thrown 1 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Tevaka Tuioti has 140.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 88.26 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 19.0 times this season, which puts him in the 65.3 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 1.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Bobby Cole RB 5-9 211

This season, Bobby Cole has 136 rushing yards on 22 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 0 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Bobby Cole picked up 0 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 0 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Jordan Kress WR 6-0 193

This season, Jordan Kress picked up 120 yards. He caught the ball 6 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 2 receiving touchdowns this season.

Elmer Pauni NT 6-3 297

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for New Mexico, Elmer Pauni has 5 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 0 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 27.14 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 0 times this season, which put him in the 35.43 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Ian Shewell DL 6-3 236

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for New Mexico, Ian Shewell has 3 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 0 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 23.73 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 0 times this season, which put him in the 32.91 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Tavian Combs S 6-2 190

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for New Mexico, Tavian Combs had 17 tackles which puts him in the 69.47 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 34.52 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Tavian Combs as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 40.1 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Tony Collier CB 5-11 165

Considered the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for New Mexico, Tony Collier had 7 tackles which puts him in the 48.47 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 37.12 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Tony Collier as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 38.98 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Nevada vs. New Mexico Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: Nevada 34 New Mexico 23

Spread Pick: New Mexico +17 -107 Pinnacle Sports
Moneyline Pick: Nevada -660 matchbook
Total Pick: Under 62.5 -110 bet365