College Football Picks, Predictions, and Previews: The Way It Oughtta Be

Nevada vs. San Jose State 12/11/2020 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

The Nevada visits San Jose State on 12/11/2020 at 10:00PM.

Nevada and San Jose State face off in an important game for both teams as every game in this shortened season with limited or no fans in attendance means more. Nevada has a record of 6-1 this season. San Jose State is 5-0 this season. Both have players to meet and know.

Nevada Team Defense Preview

Nevada has had 82 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 5.87 plays per drive. The struggle is real. Nevada cannot find a way to get opposing offenses off the field. Three and outs are not common and if the team needs a three-and-out late in a game to get the ball back, it is just not happening.Opponents face third and long situations a lot against this defense. This is a defense that forces opponents to commit penalties, have compromised offensive line play, and fail to convert on crunch possessions. Passing plays make up 53.64% of their opponents’ play calls.Nevada tends to face teams that prefer to air it out or opponents want to air it out against them.

Nevada is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to create negative yardage plays on the ground. How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? Nevada can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 2.7 yards per carry. Opponent offensive lines have been simply unable to support their running games against this defense. When it comes to getting to that second level, running backs are getting stopped. This defense does not allow themselves to be gashed. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to give up big rushing plays.

This is not a disruptive Defense and they get pushed over way too easily. Perhaps they are too vanilla with playcalling. This front seven is simply unable to make an impact, something must change or else the problems will repeat. Nevada is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

Nevada Team Offense Preview

Nevada has had 82 drives in non-garbage time minutes and they average 5.38 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive they run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Nevada is an average offense when it comes to staying ahead of the chains, getting into 3rd and Short scenarios, and converting on 3rd and 4th Down. Nevada passes the football 63.95% of the time.This is an Air Raid Offense team, they are going to pass the ball a lot and running plays are only used to keep opponents honest.

Nevada struggles with running the ball, getting zero or negative yard plays is disspiriting and the offensive line is not effectively making a good push. Poor playcalling, pre-snap adjustments or post-snap reads may be responsible and this could fall on the Quarterback, Offensive Coordinator, and Head Coach. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 2.48 yards per carry. So what does this mean? It means that the offensive line has been incredibly disappointing in their contribution to the ground game. This is also a team that is getting to the second-level in an average fashion. Offensive line and running backs are average in this regard. They are capable of busting out a long run, which is really good when the team has the ball in their own territory.

Defenses have had average success disrupting the flow of the Nevada Offense. Front sevens are causing an average amount of trouble for the Offense. Nevada is a better passing team than running team this season.

San Jose State Team Defense Preview

San Jose State has had 58 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 5.64 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive opponents run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Opponents face third and long situations a lot against this defense. This is a defense that forces opponents to commit penalties, have compromised offensive line play, and fail to convert on crunch possessions. San Jose State opponents pass the football 48.01% of the time.Opponents typically have some form of run/pass balance against them.

San Jose State is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to create negative yardage plays on the ground. Opponent rushing yards attributed to their offensive line this season comes out to 2.83 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average defense when it comes to how offensive lines control or fail to control them on the ground. When it comes to getting to that second level, running backs are getting stopped. This defense does not allow themselves to be gashed. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to give up big rushing plays.

This Defense has had average success disrupting the flow of the opposing offense.. Getting more specific, this front seven is a cause of a lot of headaches for offenses. They may be good enough to cause trouble in pass rush with just four rushers!San Jose State is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

San Jose State Team Offense Preview

San Jose State has had 61 total drives this season and they generate 4.95 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, San Jose State is not a team that runs many plays per drive. The offense is either prone to faltering and struggles to notch first downs or extremely explosive, we will need to find out a bit more to get answers. San Jose State is an average offense when it comes to staying ahead of the chains, getting into 3rd and Short scenarios, and converting on 3rd and 4th Down. Passing plays make up 50.33% of their play calls.Relatively speaking, this is a team that favors run/pass balance.

San Jose State struggles with running the ball, getting zero or negative yard plays is disspiriting and the offensive line is not effectively making a good push. Poor playcalling, pre-snap adjustments or post-snap reads may be responsible and this could fall on the Quarterback, Offensive Coordinator, and Head Coach. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. San Jose State can take credit for 2.49 yards per carry. So what does this mean? It means that the offensive line has been incredibly disappointing in their contribution to the ground game. When it comes to getting to that second level where linebackers have not crashed down on the line of scrimmage, they are getting stopped with ease. They feature a relatively average explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play, but it is not something to count on from them.

San Jose State has bullied and controlled defenses this season, defenses have not been able to dictate what this offense is able to do to them. Opponents should consider a containment strategy. San Jose State is among the best in the country at keeping defensive front sevens at bay. Opposing defenses need their secondary players to step up and cause trouble in order for this Offense to be disrupted. San Jose State is a better passing team than running team this season.

The Nevada Roster

The Players to Watch for Nevada

Carson Strong QB 6-4 215

This season, Carson Strong has put up 2327 yards and 21 touchdowns. He has thrown 4 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 161.6thus far this season. Carson Strong has thrown 4 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Carson Strong has -104.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 0.31 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 21.0 times this season, which puts him in the 56.02 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 0.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Toa Taua RB 5-9 210

This season, Toa Taua has 477 rushing yards on 83 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 3 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Toa Taua picked up 105 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 20 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Romeo Doubs WR 6-2 200

This season, Romeo Doubs picked up 877 yards. He caught the ball 43 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 9 receiving touchdowns this season.

Dom Peterson DT 6-0 285

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Nevada, Dom Peterson has 27 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 7 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 97.3 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 4 times this season, which put him in the 97.75 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Sam Hammond DE 6-5 265.0

The leading tackler among Defensive Ends for Nevada, Sam Hammond has 27 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 8 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 95.73 percentile among Defensive Ends. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 4 times this season, which put him in the 93.64 percentile among all Defensive Ends in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Tyson Williams DB 5-9 200.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Nevada, Tyson Williams had 48 tackles which puts him in the 93.85 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss this season, which puts him in the 32.02 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 0 times this season. Tyson Williams as a ball hawker was able to pick off 1 passes this season, which puts him in the 83.88 percentile among returning secondary position players this season.

The San Jose State Roster

The Players to Watch for San Jose State

Nick Starkel QB 6-3 214

This season, Nick Starkel has put up 1147 yards and 11 touchdowns. He has thrown 3 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 163.6thus far this season. Nick Starkel has thrown 3 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Nick Starkel has -5.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 16.82 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 5.0 times this season, which puts him in the 26.85 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 0.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Tyler Nevens RB 6-0 225

This season, Tyler Nevens has 270 rushing yards on 39 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 4 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Tyler Nevens picked up 7 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 4 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Bailey Gaither WR 6-1 182

This season, Bailey Gaither picked up 471 yards. He caught the ball 29 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 4 receiving touchdowns this season.

Junior Fehoko DE 6-4 233.0

The leading tackler among Defensive Ends for San Jose State, Junior Fehoko has 22 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 8 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 95.73 percentile among Defensive Ends. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 5 times this season, which put him in the 96.59 percentile among all Defensive Ends in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Tre Webb S 6-0 202.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for San Jose State, Tre Webb had 37 tackles which puts him in the 86.68 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 4 tackles for loss this season, which puts him in the 96.52 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 0 times this season. Tre Webb as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes this season, which puts him in the 38.0 percentile among returning secondary position players this season.

Nehemiah Shelton CB 6-2 168

Considered the leading tackler among Cornerbacks for San Jose State, Nehemiah Shelton had 24 tackles which puts him in the 82.29 percentile among Corners. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss this season, which puts him in the 34.7 percentile among Corners. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 0 times this season. Nehemiah Shelton as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes this season, which puts him in the 36.4 percentile among Corners this season.

Nevada vs. San Jose State Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: Nevada 30 San Jose State 28

Spread Pick: Nevada +2.5 -100 Pinnacle Sports
Moneyline Pick: Nevada +130 5Dimes
Total Pick: Under 59 -110 Bookmaker