College Football Picks, Predictions, and Previews: The Way It Oughtta Be

North Carolina vs. Duke 11/7/2020 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

The North Carolina visits Duke on 11/7/2020 at 12:00PM.

North Carolina and Duke face off in an important game for both teams as every game in this shortened season with limited or no fans in attendance means more. North Carolina has a record of 4-2 this season. Duke is 2-5 this season. Both have players to meet and know.

North Carolina Team Defense Preview

North Carolina has had 70 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 5.29 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive opponents run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. North Carolina has a generally average defense. Nothing too special about it, but they are capable of rising up when needed. Passing plays make up 52.16% of their opponents’ play calls.North Carolina tends to face teams that prefer to air it out or opponents want to air it out against them.

Defenses want to stop offenses from getting into a 3rd Down where the options are plentiful. Unfortunately, this defense is too porous to limit those choices. Opponent rushing yards attributed to their offensive line this season comes out to 3.18 yards per carry. This defense lets offensive lines have too much control over them on the ground, too much push from the opposing offensive line. This is also a team that is allowing running backs and quarterbacks to get to the second-level in an average fashion. Opponents have shown a relatively average level of explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play against them.

This is not a disruptive Defense and they get pushed over way too easily. Perhaps they are too vanilla with playcalling. This front seven is simply unable to make an impact, something must change or else the problems will repeat. North Carolina has shown themselves to be better at stopping the pass than the run this season.

North Carolina Team Offense Preview

North Carolina has had 68 total drives this season and they generate 5.93 plays per drive. North Carolina runs a lot of plays per drive and this could wear an opposing defense down. Any defense is in for a challenge with North Carolina, given their ability to accrue more than 5 yards on 1st Downs and their ability to convert on 3rd and 4th Downs. They put a lot of pressure on opposing defenses.North Carolina passes the football 47.64% of the time.Relatively speaking, this is a team that favors run/pass balance.

On first downs, getting ahead of the chains is crucial and running the ball well on first down can get a team there, North Carolina has done a good job avoiding the negative yardage rushing plays. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. North Carolina can take credit for 3.35 yards per carry. This is an elite offensive line when it comes to generating a push for the running game. They know how to create creases for running backs to break loose. Playing 7 in a box may not be enough for opposing defenses, this is a great O-Line. The offensive line and running back corps deserve a lot of credit for gashing defenses with their running game like the way they have this season. They have an explosive running game and they are capable of breaking big yardage runs on First and Second Down. This puts a lot of pressure on Linebackers and Safeties.

Defenses have had trouble making big, disruptive plays against North Carolina this season. Front sevens are causing an average amount of trouble for the Offense. North Carolina has shown themselves to be a better running team than passing team this season.

Duke Team Defense Preview

Duke has had 82 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 4.99 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, Duke is not a team that allows many plays per drive. This defense either gives up big plays quickly or induces a lot of three-and-outs, we shall find out more. Opponents face third and long situations a lot against this defense. This is a defense that forces opponents to commit penalties, have compromised offensive line play, and fail to convert on crunch possessions. Duke opponents pass the football 50.37% of the time.Opponents typically have some form of run/pass balance against them.

Defenses want to stop offenses from getting into a 3rd Down where the options are plentiful. Unfortunately, this defense is too porous to limit those choices. How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? Duke can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 3.2 yards per carry. This defense lets offensive lines have too much control over them on the ground, too much push from the opposing offensive line. This is also a team that is allowing running backs and quarterbacks to get to the second-level in an average fashion. Opponents have shown a relatively average level of explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play against them.

This Defense has had average success disrupting the flow of the opposing offense.. Getting more granual into the front seven and their ability to cause trouble, they are just average in this regard. Duke has shown themselves to be better at stopping the pass than the run this season.

Duke Team Offense Preview

Duke has had 84 total drives this season and they generate 5.2 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, Duke is not a team that runs many plays per drive. The offense is either prone to faltering and struggles to notch first downs or extremely explosive, we will need to find out a bit more to get answers. Struggles to get ahead of the chains and convert on third and fourth down are common, the offense can stagnate. Duke passes the football 51.49% of the time.Relatively speaking, this is a team that favors run/pass balance.

Duke is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to avoid negative yardage plays on the ground. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. Duke can take credit for 2.65 yards per carry. So what does this mean? It means that the offensive line has been incredibly disappointing in their contribution to the ground game. When it comes to getting to that second level where linebackers have not crashed down on the line of scrimmage, they are getting stopped with ease. They are capable of busting out a long run, which is really good when the team has the ball in their own territory.

Defenses have been able to impose their will on the Duke Offense this season. Front sevens of opposing defenses are causing a lot of problems. Duke is a better passing team than running team this season.

The North Carolina Roster

The Players to Watch for North Carolina

Sam Howell QB 6-1 225

This season, Sam Howell has put up 1846 yards and 14 touchdowns. He has thrown 4 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 176.9thus far this season. Sam Howell has thrown 4 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Sam Howell has 17.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 51.18 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 49.0 times this season, which puts him in the 89.61 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 1.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Michael Carter RB 5-8 199

This season, Michael Carter has 648 rushing yards on 83 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 3 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Michael Carter picked up 128 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 14 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Dyami Brown WR 6-1 185

This season, Dyami Brown picked up 641 yards. He caught the ball 35 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 6 receiving touchdowns this season.

Raymond Vohasek DL 6-3 295

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for North Carolina, Raymond Vohasek has 16 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 4 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 91.01 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 2 times this season, which put him in the 87.42 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Don Chapman DB 6-1 190

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for North Carolina, Don Chapman had 34 tackles which puts him in the 94.17 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 5 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 99.63 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 2 times last season. Don Chapman as a ball hawker was able to pick off 1 passes last season, which puts him in the 88.29 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

The Duke Roster

The Players to Watch for Duke

Chase Brice QB 6-2 235

This season, Chase Brice has put up 1559 yards and 7 touchdowns. He has thrown 11 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 108.6thus far this season. Chase Brice has thrown 11 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Chase Brice has 92.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 82.35 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 57.0 times this season, which puts him in the 92.16 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 1.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Deon Jackson RB 6-0 215

This season, Deon Jackson has 547 rushing yards on 119 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 4 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Deon Jackson picked up 16 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 6 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Jake Bobo WR 6-4 215

This season, Jake Bobo picked up 260 yards. He caught the ball 22 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.

Derrick Tangelo DT 6-2 310

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Duke, Derrick Tangelo has 28 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 4 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 95.36 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 2 times this season, which put him in the 94.26 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 2 fumbles this season.

Chris Rumph II DE 6-3 235

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Duke, Chris Rumph II has 34 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 8 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 98.93 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 8 times this season, which put him in the 99.94 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Marquis Waters S 6-0 200

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Duke, Marquis Waters had 40 tackles which puts him in the 96.95 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 3 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 96.9 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 1 times last season. Marquis Waters as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 40.81 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Jeremiah Lewis CB 6-0 190

Considered the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Duke, Jeremiah Lewis had 24 tackles which puts him in the 96.1 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 2 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 93.49 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Jeremiah Lewis as a ball hawker was able to pick off 2 passes last season, which puts him in the 95.72 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

North Carolina vs. Duke Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: North Carolina 37 Duke 17

Spread Pick: North Carolina -11.5 -110 Pinnacle Sports
Moneyline Pick: North Carolina -370 5Dimes
Total Pick: Under 62 -108 Pinnacle Sports