College Basketball Picks, Predictions, and Previews

North Carolina vs. Duke Prediction, Picks, and Preview for 4/2/2022

North Carolina takes on Duke on 4/2/2022 at 07:49 PM.

Hello friends, we have predictions for the North Carolina-Duke game. It is time to get rolling with our preview! North Carolina has a record of 28-9 this season. Duke is 32-6 this season. Both have players to meet and know.

North Carolina Team Defense Preview





They have an elite level defense and fans may not appreciate it because they get so fixated on scoring, dunks, and drama, but this defense is as good as it gets right now. Now that we know what the overall defense looks like, it is time to understand why this defense is the way it is. Defensively, they are above average at stifling opponent ball movement. Opponents are a little bit disjointed against them. Sometimes defenses are very focused on forcing bad shots and getting the defensive rebound. Is there anything to support this? It may be just possible that this is a passive defense.

This is a decent defensive team that is able to force some bad shots. This defense discourages three point shots a bit more than others. They are an average team when it comes to the shot quality of the three point shots of their opposition. This is a decent interior defense or schemed defense that is able to force more mid-range shots. Nothing will blow you away about their ability to block shots. This is an elite level defensive rebounding team. Falling more than two standard deviations from the mean, this is impressive and indicative of a team that should have more on the horizon.

North Carolina Team Offense Preview

Getting excited about an offensive efficiency of 110.0 is going a bit overboard with an above-average offense. And nothing more than that. This analysis would be woefully incomplete without going into further detail aside from just an offensive efficiency rating. Compared to the rest of the league, there is a sense of neutrality about ball movement to set up 2 point shots. This is a smooth running offense and the players make good decisions on the floor. This typically goes hand-in-hand with strong shot selection and higher Field Goal percentages.

Their Effective Field Goal Rate is 0.52, which considered to be slightly above average. Their True Shooting Percentage is 0.556 which considered to be slightly above average. They attempt 0.382 of their shots from three point range. They fall right around average in College Basketball. They made 0.361 of their shots from three point range. They are a slightly above average three point shooting team. The Charity Stripe is not an emphasized part of the offense. They made 0.765 of their shots from the Free Throw Line. They are an above average Free Throw shooting team. They successfully retrieved 31.0% of their missed shots. They are a slightly above average rebounding team.

Duke Team Defense Preview

They have an elite level defense and fans may not appreciate it because they get so fixated on scoring, dunks, and drama, but this defense is as good as it gets right now. This analysis would be woefully incomplete without going into further detail aside from just a defensive efficiency rating. They fall in the middle defensively when it comes to opponent ball movement. This is not a team that excels at forcing live ball turnovers. Either the personnel or strategy is not there.

This is a decent defensive team that is able to force some bad shots. Scheduling and defensive approach are why opponents take so few three point shots against them on a relative basis. They feature a decent perimeter defense that is able to force some bad three point shots. This is a decent interior defense or schemed defense that is able to force more mid-range shots. Their ability to block shots is above average. This is an average defensive rebounding team, this is not a death knell for the team, but they should strive to be better.

Duke Team Offense Preview





Leading off the offensive discussion with offensive efficiency, theirs is 117.2, which means that if you want to be succinct about it and not consider anything more, you can say the offense is strong. Now that we know what the overall offense looks like, it is time to understand why this offense is the way it is. Compared to the rest of the league, there is a sense of neutrality about ball movement to set up 2 point shots. This is a smooth running offense and the players make good decisions on the floor. This typically goes hand-in-hand with strong shot selection and higher Field Goal percentages.

Their Effective Field Goal Rate is 0.56, which considered to be above average. Their True Shooting Percentage is 0.586 which considered to be above average. They attempt 0.358 of their shots from three point range. They take threes less often than many in College Basketball. They made 0.37 of their shots from three point range. They are an above average three point shooting team. The Charity Stripe is not an emphasized part of the offense. They made 0.742 of their shots from the Free Throw Line. They are a slightly above average Free Throw shooting team. They successfully retrieved 31.6% of their missed shots. They are a slightly above average rebounding team.

The North Carolina Roster

The Players to Watch for North Carolina

Caleb Love 6-4 195 pound Guard

Caleb Love sports a 15.4 Player Efficiency Rate (PER) this season. In the grand scheme of things, he is an average College Basketball player this season as far as his contributions are concerned. Few teams have a player like him to take on that much of the workload.

Offensive Breakdown

Caleb Love attempted 0.49 of his shots from three point range. This season, he does not stand out as a player who attempted a lot of shots from downtown. Caleb Love shot 0.371 from long range this season. He is considered an above-average three point shooter and a threat who must be contained on the perimeter. He made 0.372 of his two point shots attempted this season. He is very inefficient inside the perimeter taking long jump shots and not showing an ability to finish at the rim. His ability to score is not necessarily anything to behold and amassing points in his case is a matter of volume rather than efficiency.

This season, when shots were missed, Caleb Love is certainly not there to help his team get a second chance opportunity.He is one of the best at creating scoring opportunities for his teammates. He is an average player when it comes to his ability to avoid committing turnovers.

Defensive Breakdown

He is a strong defender who makes a positive impact for his team on the defensive end. He does not put an effort to attacking the glass and pulling down rebounds. His ability to block shots is generally unimportant, it is not an important part of his defensive game. A capable enough defender to be disruptive, but Caleb Love is inconsistent in his efforts to get steals.

RJ Davis 6-0 160 pound Guard

RJ Davis has a 16.5 Player Efficiency Rate (PER) this season. There is potential for much more this season than his campaign this season. Consider that he is one of the better players in the conference and he can mean much more. His participation rate is average on the floor, he is not expected to carry the load in any way.

Offensive Breakdown

RJ Davis attempted 0.44 of his shots from three point range. This season, he does not stand out as a player who attempted a lot of shots from downtown. He made 0.374 of his three point shots fired this season. He is considered an above-average three point shooter and a threat who must be contained on the perimeter. He made 0.472 of his two point shots attempted this season. He is not a remarkable scorer inside the perimeter. When he puts up a shot, there is meaning to it. It is of great consequence and he is able to score.

This season, when shots were missed, RJ Davis is certainly not there to help his team get a second chance opportunity.He is one of the best at creating scoring opportunities for his teammates. He is an average player when it comes to his ability to avoid committing turnovers.

Defensive Breakdown

RJ Davis has shown that he may be an elite defensive player going into this season and the expectation is that it should not change. He is an average defensive rebounder who is serviceable in his role. His ability to block shots is generally unimportant, it is not an important part of his defensive game. A capable enough defender to be disruptive, but RJ Davis is inconsistent in his efforts to get steals.

Armando Bacot 6-10 240 pound Forward

Armando Bacot sports a 29.7 Player Efficiency Rate (PER) this season. He is among the best in the conference and even in the country as far as his on-the-court contributions. Definitely, a player to watch and opponents will have him scouted. He is considered one of the key players on the floor when he is out there playing.

Offensive Breakdown

Armando Bacot attempted 0.02 of his shots from three point range. He is not considered a frequent shooter from three point range. Armando Bacot shot 0.125 from long range this season. He comes into this season viewed as a poor three point shooter. He made 0.595 of his two point shots attempted this season. He is a solid finisher at the rim and his shot selection is generally strong inside the perimeter. He is among the most efficient in his ability to score. As a shooter regardless of where he is, he makes something damaging happen for opponents.

He is one of the best at creating second chance scoring opportunities in the country, his ability to grab offensive rebounds is very difficult to beat. His ability to distribute the ball to his teammates is on-par with others in College Basketball. He is among the best in the country at not turning the ball over.

Defensive Breakdown

Armando Bacot has shown that he may be an elite defensive player going into this season and the expectation is that it should not change. Windex has found their new pitchman and his abilities on the defensive glass certainly warrant such a Dick Vitale-ism. He is one of the best shot-blockers in College Basketball, opponents have to game plan around him and he is an insurance policy of sorts for his team on the defensive end. This may enable them to take more risks defensively knowing he can erase shots. A capable enough defender to be disruptive, but Armando Bacot is inconsistent in his efforts to get steals.

Brady Manek 6-9 231 pound Forward

Brady Manek has a 22.2 Player Efficiency Rate (PER) this season. He is among the best in the conference and even in the country as far as his on-the-court contributions. Definitely, a player to watch and opponents will have him scouted. He is considered one of the key players on the floor when he is out there playing.

Offensive Breakdown

Brady Manek this season has 0.542 of his shots attempted from 3 point range He is considered one of the more frequent three point shooters in the conference. Brady Manek shot 0.398 from long range this season. He is considered an above-average three point shooter and a threat who must be contained on the perimeter. Brady Manek shot 0.61 inside the perimeter. He gets his work done inside the restricted arc and has shown a strong ability to finish at the rim while showing great restraint to avoid less optimal shots. He is among the most efficient in his ability to score. As a shooter regardless of where he is, he makes something damaging happen for opponents.

His ability to crash the boards on the offensive end is average.He is a stronger distributor than most that is for sure, but he is not among the elite. He is among the best in the country at not turning the ball over.

Defensive Breakdown

He is a strong defender who makes a positive impact for his team on the defensive end. He is a leader in his conference as a defensive rebounder. His ability to block shots is generally unimportant, it is not an important part of his defensive game. He is also not very adept at being defensively disruptive and forcing live ball turnovers.

Leaky Black 6-8 195 pound Guard

Leaky Black sports a 12.6 Player Efficiency Rate (PER) this season. In the grand scheme of things, he is an average College Basketball player this season as far as his contributions are concerned. He is not a very active participant on the floor. He may even be considered just a screener or a warm body out there.

Offensive Breakdown

Leaky Black attempted 0.333 of his shots from three point range. This season, he does not stand out as a player who attempted a lot of shots from downtown. Leaky Black shot 0.333 from long range this season. This season, he would be considered an average three point shooter. Leaky Black shot 0.544 inside the perimeter. He is a solid finisher at the rim and his shot selection is generally strong inside the perimeter. When he puts up a shot, there is meaning to it. It is of great consequence and he is able to score.

His ability to crash the boards on the offensive end is average.He is a stronger distributor than most that is for sure, but he is not among the elite. He is a turnover prone player and he is a target for defenses. Playing more physical against him or making sure to jump his passes may be a good idea.

Defensive Breakdown

Leaky Black has shown that he may be an elite defensive player going into this season and the expectation is that it should not change. He is an average defensive rebounder who is serviceable in his role. A strong shot-blocker who must be accounted for by opponents looking to attack the basket or post up on him. A capable enough defender to be disruptive, but Leaky Black is inconsistent in his efforts to get steals.

Kerwin Walton 6-5 205 pound Guard

Kerwin Walton has a 7.2 Player Efficiency Rate (PER) this season. This season, he is a bit of a non-factor on the floor. The hope is that this season he can improve and show what he can do. He is not a very active participant on the floor. He may even be considered just a screener or a warm body out there.

Offensive Breakdown

Kerwin Walton this season has 0.637 of his shots attempted from 3 point range He is considered one of the more frequent three point shooters in the conference. Kerwin Walton shot 0.354 from long range this season. He is considered an above-average three point shooter and a threat who must be contained on the perimeter. Kerwin Walton shot 0.405 inside the perimeter. He is very inefficient inside the perimeter taking long jump shots and not showing an ability to finish at the rim. His ability to score is not necessarily anything to behold and amassing points in his case is a matter of volume rather than efficiency.

This season, when shots were missed, Kerwin Walton is certainly not there to help his team get a second chance opportunity.He is not known for his ability to distribute the ball to his teammates. He is an average player when it comes to his ability to avoid committing turnovers.

Defensive Breakdown

He is a strong defender who makes a positive impact for his team on the defensive end. He does not put an effort to attacking the glass and pulling down rebounds. His ability to block shots is generally unimportant, it is not an important part of his defensive game. He is also not very adept at being defensively disruptive and forcing live ball turnovers.





The Duke Roster

The Players to Watch for Duke

Wendell Moore Jr. 6-5 216 pound Forward

Wendell Moore Jr. has a 21.7 Player Efficiency Rate (PER) this season. He is among the best in the conference and even in the country as far as his on-the-court contributions. Definitely, a player to watch and opponents will have him scouted. His participation rate is average on the floor, he is not expected to carry the load in any way.

Offensive Breakdown

Wendell Moore Jr. this season has 0.343 of his shots attempted from 3 point range This season, he does not stand out as a player who attempted a lot of shots from downtown. He made 0.411 of his three point shots fired this season. He is a sharpshooter from long range and his ability to shoot three point shots must be respected. Wendell Moore Jr. shot 0.559 inside the perimeter. He is a solid finisher at the rim and his shot selection is generally strong inside the perimeter. He is among the most efficient in his ability to score. As a shooter regardless of where he is, he makes something damaging happen for opponents.

His ability to crash the boards on the offensive end is average.He is one of the best at creating scoring opportunities for his teammates. He is an average player when it comes to his ability to avoid committing turnovers.

Defensive Breakdown

Wendell Moore Jr. has shown that he may be an elite defensive player going into this season and the expectation is that it should not change. He is an average defensive rebounder who is serviceable in his role. His ability to block shots is generally unimportant, it is not an important part of his defensive game. Watch out on the passing lanes, he will use his length and athleticism to force turnovers. He may even pick your pocket, opponents should be wary.

Paolo Banchero 6-10 250 pound Forward

Paolo Banchero has a 24.1 Player Efficiency Rate (PER) this season. He is among the best in the conference and even in the country as far as his on-the-court contributions. Definitely, a player to watch and opponents will have him scouted. Few teams have a player like him to take on that much of the workload.

Offensive Breakdown

Paolo Banchero attempted 0.254 of his shots from three point range. This season, he does not stand out as a player who attempted a lot of shots from downtown. Paolo Banchero shot 0.333 from long range this season. This season, he would be considered an average three point shooter. He made 0.527 of his two point shots attempted this season. He is not a remarkable scorer inside the perimeter. When he puts up a shot, there is meaning to it. It is of great consequence and he is able to score.

His ability to crash the boards on the offensive end is average.He is a stronger distributor than most that is for sure, but he is not among the elite. He is an average player when it comes to his ability to avoid committing turnovers.

Defensive Breakdown

He is a strong defender who makes a positive impact for his team on the defensive end. He is a leader in his conference as a defensive rebounder. A strong shot-blocker who must be accounted for by opponents looking to attack the basket or post up on him. A capable enough defender to be disruptive, but Paolo Banchero is inconsistent in his efforts to get steals.

Jeremy Roach 6-1 175 pound Guard

Jeremy Roach has a 11.8 Player Efficiency Rate (PER) this season. In the grand scheme of things, he is an average College Basketball player this season as far as his contributions are concerned. His participation rate is average on the floor, he is not expected to carry the load in any way.

Offensive Breakdown

Jeremy Roach this season has 0.419 of his shots attempted from 3 point range This season, he does not stand out as a player who attempted a lot of shots from downtown. Jeremy Roach shot 0.336 from long range this season. This season, he would be considered an average three point shooter. He made 0.478 of his two point shots attempted this season. He is not a remarkable scorer inside the perimeter. His ability to score is not necessarily anything to behold and amassing points in his case is a matter of volume rather than efficiency.

This season, when shots were missed, Jeremy Roach is certainly not there to help his team get a second chance opportunity.He is a stronger distributor than most that is for sure, but he is not among the elite. He is an average player when it comes to his ability to avoid committing turnovers.

Defensive Breakdown

He is a strong defender who makes a positive impact for his team on the defensive end. He does not put an effort to attacking the glass and pulling down rebounds. He is not a shot blocker. A capable enough defender to be disruptive, but Jeremy Roach is inconsistent in his efforts to get steals.

Trevor Keels 6-4 221 pound Guard

Trevor Keels has a 16.2 Player Efficiency Rate (PER) this season. There is potential for much more this season than his campaign this season. Consider that he is one of the better players in the conference and he can mean much more. His participation rate is average on the floor, he is not expected to carry the load in any way.

Offensive Breakdown

Trevor Keels this season has 0.493 of his shots attempted from 3 point range This season, he does not stand out as a player who attempted a lot of shots from downtown. Trevor Keels shot 0.313 from long range this season. This season, he would be considered an average three point shooter. Trevor Keels shot 0.509 inside the perimeter. He is not a remarkable scorer inside the perimeter. His ability to score is not necessarily anything to behold and amassing points in his case is a matter of volume rather than efficiency.

His ability to crash the boards on the offensive end is average.He is a stronger distributor than most that is for sure, but he is not among the elite. He is among the best in the country at not turning the ball over.

Defensive Breakdown

He is a strong defender who makes a positive impact for his team on the defensive end. He does not put an effort to attacking the glass and pulling down rebounds. He is not a shot blocker. Watch out on the passing lanes, he will use his length and athleticism to force turnovers. He may even pick your pocket, opponents should be wary.

AJ Griffin 6-6 222 pound Forward

AJ Griffin has a 21.1 Player Efficiency Rate (PER) this season. He is among the best in the conference and even in the country as far as his on-the-court contributions. Definitely, a player to watch and opponents will have him scouted. His participation rate is average on the floor, he is not expected to carry the load in any way.

Offensive Breakdown

AJ Griffin attempted 0.536 of his shots from three point range. He is considered one of the more frequent three point shooters in the conference. AJ Griffin shot 0.458 from long range this season. He is a sharpshooter from long range and his ability to shoot three point shots must be respected. AJ Griffin shot 0.552 inside the perimeter. He is a solid finisher at the rim and his shot selection is generally strong inside the perimeter. He is among the most efficient in his ability to score. As a shooter regardless of where he is, he makes something damaging happen for opponents.

His ability to crash the boards on the offensive end is average.His ability to distribute the ball to his teammates is on-par with others in College Basketball. He is among the best in the country at not turning the ball over.

Defensive Breakdown

He is a strong defender who makes a positive impact for his team on the defensive end. He is an average defensive rebounder who is serviceable in his role. A strong shot-blocker who must be accounted for by opponents looking to attack the basket or post up on him. A capable enough defender to be disruptive, but AJ Griffin is inconsistent in his efforts to get steals.

Mark Williams 7-0 243 pound Center

Mark Williams has a 33.2 Player Efficiency Rate (PER) this season. He is among the best in the conference and even in the country as far as his on-the-court contributions. Definitely, a player to watch and opponents will have him scouted. His participation rate is average on the floor, he is not expected to carry the load in any way.

Offensive Breakdown

Mark Williams this season has 0.004 of his shots attempted from 3 point range He is not considered a frequent shooter from three point range. He made 0.0 of his three point shots fired this season. He comes into this season viewed as a poor three point shooter. He made 0.722 of his two point shots attempted this season. He gets his work done inside the restricted arc and has shown a strong ability to finish at the rim while showing great restraint to avoid less optimal shots. He is among the most efficient in his ability to score. As a shooter regardless of where he is, he makes something damaging happen for opponents.

He is one of the best at creating second chance scoring opportunities in the country, his ability to grab offensive rebounds is very difficult to beat. His ability to distribute the ball to his teammates is on-par with others in College Basketball. He is among the best in the country at not turning the ball over.

Defensive Breakdown

Mark Williams has shown that he may be an elite defensive player going into this season and the expectation is that it should not change. Windex has found their new pitchman and his abilities on the defensive glass certainly warrant such a Dick Vitale-ism. He is one of the best shot-blockers in College Basketball, opponents have to game plan around him and he is an insurance policy of sorts for his team on the defensive end. This may enable them to take more risks defensively knowing he can erase shots. He is also not very adept at being defensively disruptive and forcing live ball turnovers.

North Carolina vs. Duke Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: North Carolina 68 Duke 91

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