College Football Picks, Predictions, and Previews: The Way It Oughtta Be

North Texas vs. UTSA 11/28/2020 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

The North Texas visits UTSA on 11/28/2020 at 3:00PM.

North Texas and UTSA face off in an important game for both teams as every game in this shortened season with limited or no fans in attendance means more. North Texas has a record of 3-3 this season. UTSA is 6-4 this season. Both have players to meet and know.

North Texas Team Defense Preview

North Texas has had 72 total defensive drives this season and they yield 5.65 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive opponents run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. North Texas has shown an inability to stop defenses from converting on 4th Downs and they let opponents get into manageable 3rd Down situations where an RPO may be especially deadly. Passing plays make up 50.61% of their opponents’ play calls.Opponents typically have some form of run/pass balance against them.

Defenses want to stop offenses from getting into a 3rd Down where the options are plentiful. Unfortunately, this defense is too porous to limit those choices. Opponent rushing yards attributed to their offensive line this season comes out to 3.34 yards per carry. Sorry to say this about this front seven, but the best way to make an average offensive line look good is for them to face this horrid front seven. This is a team that is getting gashed too much for the tastes of their base. Linebackers are not stopping the bleeding well enough. They are capable of giving up a long run, which is really demoralizing when the opposing team has the ball deep in their own territory.

This is not a disruptive Defense and they get pushed over way too easily. Perhaps they are too vanilla with playcalling. Getting more granual into the front seven and their ability to cause trouble, they are just average in this regard. North Texas has shown themselves to be better at stopping the pass than the run this season.

North Texas Team Offense Preview

North Texas has had 75 drives in non-garbage time minutes and they average 5.36 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive they run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Any defense is in for a challenge with North Texas, given their ability to accrue more than 5 yards on 1st Downs and their ability to convert on 3rd and 4th Downs. They put a lot of pressure on opposing defenses.Passing plays make up 46.52% of their play calls.Relatively speaking, this is a team that favors run/pass balance.

Move the pile forward, falling forward, making progress, ensuring north-south running, smart Quarterback reads, well-adjusted alignments to ensure leverage, and an offensive line that is getting a great push forward are cornerstones of this offense. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. North Texas can take credit for 3.49 yards per carry. This is an elite offensive line when it comes to generating a push for the running game. They know how to create creases for running backs to break loose. Playing 7 in a box may not be enough for opposing defenses, this is a great O-Line. This is a team that is rather above-average when it comes to gashing defenses. The threat of the run should force opposing to play more honest and assignment defensive football is a must. They have an explosive running game and they are capable of breaking big yardage runs on First and Second Down. This puts a lot of pressure on Linebackers and Safeties.

North Texas has bullied and controlled defenses this season, defenses have not been able to dictate what this offense is able to do to them. Opponents should consider a containment strategy. North Texas is among the best in the country at keeping defensive front sevens at bay. Opposing defenses need their secondary players to step up and cause trouble in order for this Offense to be disrupted. North Texas has shown themselves to be a better running team than passing team this season.

UTSA Team Defense Preview

UTSA has had 110 total defensive drives this season and they yield 5.17 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive opponents run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Opponents face third and long situations a lot against this defense. This is a defense that forces opponents to commit penalties, have compromised offensive line play, and fail to convert on crunch possessions. UTSA opponents pass the football 49.74% of the time.Opponents typically have some form of run/pass balance against them.

UTSA opponents have struggled with running the ball and this defense has crushed the spirits of their opponents with zero or negative yard plays. 4th and Short is not a cake walk against this defense, maybe passing on 4th and Short or having some sort of RPO is the way to go here because if an Offensive Coordinator thinks that they can just line and run a Quarterback Sneak or hand it off to a tailback, they are mistaken. Opponent rushing yards attributed to their offensive line this season comes out to 2.66 yards per carry. Opponent offensive lines have been simply unable to support their running games against this defense. This is also a team that is allowing running backs and quarterbacks to get to the second-level in an average fashion. Opponents have shown a relatively average level of explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play against them.

UTSA has made the turnover belt, chain, pads, lunch pail or whatever gimmick they use change hands a lot. This is a Defense that causes pure aggravation. UTSA should have a sign ready for opponents near the Visitor Locker Room that says “Welcome to Hell”, this front seven is deep and they cause a lot of problems. UTSA has shown themselves to be better at stopping the pass than the run this season.

UTSA Team Offense Preview

UTSA has had 112 total drives this season and they generate 5.59 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive they run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Struggles to get ahead of the chains and convert on third and fourth down are common, the offense can stagnate. UTSA passes the football 46.49% of the time.They favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

UTSA is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to avoid negative yardage plays on the ground. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 2.93 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average offensive line as far as their ability to set up the running game. This is also a team that is getting to the second-level in an average fashion. Offensive line and running backs are average in this regard. They are capable of busting out a long run, which is really good when the team has the ball in their own territory.

Defenses have had average success disrupting the flow of the UTSA Offense. Front sevens are causing an average amount of trouble for the Offense. UTSA is a better passing team than running team this season.

The North Texas Roster

The Players to Watch for North Texas

Austin Aune QB 6-2 216

This season, Austin Aune has put up 1233 yards and 8 touchdowns. He has thrown 4 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 144.5thus far this season. Austin Aune has thrown 4 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Austin Aune has 12.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 42.62 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 19.0 times this season, which puts him in the 60.16 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 1.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Deandre Torrey RB 5-7 195

This season, Deandre Torrey has 546 rushing yards on 86 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 5 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Deandre Torrey picked up 10 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 2 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Jaelon Darden WR 5-9 174

This season, Jaelon Darden picked up 739 yards. He caught the ball 50 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 11 receiving touchdowns this season.

Dion Novil DL 6-4 330

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for North Texas, Dion Novil has 32 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 8 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 97.2 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 2 times this season, which put him in the 83.9 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 2 fumbles this season.

Makyle Sanders S 6-0 210.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for North Texas, Makyle Sanders had 35 tackles which puts him in the 90.32 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 33.65 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Makyle Sanders as a ball hawker was able to pick off 1 passes last season, which puts him in the 85.62 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

The UTSA Roster

The Players to Watch for UTSA

Frank Harris QB 6-0 200

This season, Frank Harris has put up 1278 yards and 8 touchdowns. He has thrown 5 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 122.3thus far this season. Frank Harris has thrown 5 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Frank Harris has 330.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 95.08 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 71.0 times this season, which puts him in the 92.95 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 7.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Sincere McCormick RB 5-9 200

This season, Sincere McCormick has 1094 rushing yards on 203 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 9 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Sincere McCormick picked up 119 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 17 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Zakhari Franklin WR 6-1 185

This season, Zakhari Franklin picked up 530 yards. He caught the ball 41 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 6 receiving touchdowns this season.

Lorenzo Dantzler DL 6-2 245

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for UTSA, Lorenzo Dantzler has 26 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 6 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 93.29 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 1 times this season, which put him in the 70.17 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 1 fumbles this season.

Rashad Wisdom S 5-10 205.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for UTSA, Rashad Wisdom had 79 tackles which puts him in the 99.91 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 2 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 88.98 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Rashad Wisdom as a ball hawker was able to pick off 3 passes last season, which puts him in the 98.79 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Corey Mayfield Jr. CB 5-11 195

Considered the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for UTSA, Corey Mayfield Jr. had 33 tackles which puts him in the 96.48 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 2 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 92.66 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 1 times last season. Corey Mayfield Jr. as a ball hawker was able to pick off 2 passes last season, which puts him in the 94.5 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

North Texas vs. UTSA Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: North Texas 38 UTSA 34

Spread Pick: North Texas +3 -115 Bookmaker
Moneyline Pick: North Texas +125 5Dimes
Total Pick: Over 66.5 -115 Bookmaker