College Football Picks, Predictions, and Previews: The Way It Oughtta Be

Oregon vs. California 12/5/2020 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

The Oregon visits California on 12/5/2020 at 7:00PM.

Oregon and California face off in an important game for both teams as every game in this shortened season with limited or no fans in attendance means more. Oregon has a record of 3-1 this season. California is 0-3 this season. Both have players to meet and know.

Oregon Team Defense Preview

Oregon has had 46 total defensive drives this season and they yield 6.11 plays per drive. The struggle is real. Oregon cannot find a way to get opposing offenses off the field. Three and outs are not common and if the team needs a three-and-out late in a game to get the ball back, it is just not happening.Oregon has shown an inability to stop defenses from converting on 4th Downs and they let opponents get into manageable 3rd Down situations where an RPO may be especially deadly. Passing plays make up 48.04% of their opponents’ play calls.Opponents typically have some form of run/pass balance against them.

Oregon is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to create negative yardage plays on the ground. How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? Oregon can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 3.12 yards per carry. This defense lets offensive lines have too much control over them on the ground, too much push from the opposing offensive line. This is also a team that is allowing running backs and quarterbacks to get to the second-level in an average fashion. They are capable of giving up a long run, which is really demoralizing when the opposing team has the ball deep in their own territory.

This is not a disruptive Defense and they get pushed over way too easily. Perhaps they are too vanilla with playcalling. This front seven is simply unable to make an impact, something must change or else the problems will repeat. Oregon has shown themselves to be better at stopping the pass than the run this season.

Oregon Team Offense Preview

Oregon has had 46 total drives this season and they generate 5.48 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive they run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Any defense is in for a challenge with Oregon, given their ability to accrue more than 5 yards on 1st Downs and their ability to convert on 3rd and 4th Downs. They put a lot of pressure on opposing defenses.Passing plays make up 48.02% of their play calls.Relatively speaking, this is a team that favors run/pass balance.

On first downs, getting ahead of the chains is crucial and running the ball well on first down can get a team there, Oregon has done a good job avoiding the negative yardage rushing plays. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. Oregon can take credit for 3.43 yards per carry. This is an elite offensive line when it comes to generating a push for the running game. They know how to create creases for running backs to break loose. Playing 7 in a box may not be enough for opposing defenses, this is a great O-Line. The offensive line and running back corps deserve a lot of credit for gashing defenses with their running game like the way they have this season. They have an explosive running game and they are capable of breaking big yardage runs on First and Second Down. This puts a lot of pressure on Linebackers and Safeties.

Defenses have had average success disrupting the flow of the Oregon Offense. Front sevens are causing an average amount of trouble for the Offense. Oregon has shown themselves to be a better running team than passing team this season.

California Team Defense Preview

California has had 34 total defensive drives this season and they yield 5.24 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive opponents run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Offensives should lick their lips given their inability to stop anyone, this is one of the worst defenses in the country. The Defensive Coordinator coaching search threads on California message boards are flights of fantasy. Passing plays make up 45.51% of their opponents’ play calls.Their opponents favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

California is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to create negative yardage plays on the ground. Opponent rushing yards attributed to their offensive line this season comes out to 3.11 yards per carry. This defense lets offensive lines have too much control over them on the ground, too much push from the opposing offensive line. This is also a team that is allowing running backs and quarterbacks to get to the second-level in an average fashion. They are capable of giving up a long run, which is really demoralizing when the opposing team has the ball deep in their own territory.

This is not a disruptive Defense and they get pushed over way too easily. Perhaps they are too vanilla with playcalling. This front seven is simply unable to make an impact, something must change or else the problems will repeat. California is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

California Team Offense Preview

California has had 34 total drives this season and they generate 5.71 plays per drive. California runs a lot of plays per drive and this could wear an opposing defense down. Struggles to get ahead of the chains and convert on third and fourth down are common, the offense can stagnate. Passing plays make up 56.70% of their play calls.This is an Air Raid Offense team, they are going to pass the ball a lot and running plays are only used to keep opponents honest.

California struggles with running the ball, getting zero or negative yard plays is disspiriting and the offensive line is not effectively making a good push. Poor playcalling, pre-snap adjustments or post-snap reads may be responsible and this could fall on the Quarterback, Offensive Coordinator, and Head Coach. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 3.23 yards per carry. This offensive line may be underappreciated, even though the running backs get the attention. The California coaching staff really deserves credit for how they prepared this offensive line, but they could be a little bit better! This is a team that is rather above-average when it comes to gashing defenses. The threat of the run should force opposing to play more honest and assignment defensive football is a must. They are capable of busting out a long run, which is really good when the team has the ball in their own territory.

Defenses have been able to impose their will on the California Offense this season. Front sevens of opposing defenses are causing a lot of problems. California has shown themselves to be a better running team than passing team this season.

The Oregon Roster

The Players to Watch for Oregon

Tyler Shough QB 6-5 221

This season, Tyler Shough has put up 1158 yards and 10 touchdowns. He has thrown 4 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 170.3thus far this season. Tyler Shough has thrown 4 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Tyler Shough has 203.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 88.25 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 39.0 times this season, which puts him in the 78.1 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 2.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

CJ Verdell RB 5-10 210

This season, CJ Verdell has 277 rushing yards on 59 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 3 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, CJ Verdell picked up 96 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 9 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Devon Williams WR 6-5 205

This season, Devon Williams picked up 264 yards. He caught the ball 13 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 2 receiving touchdowns this season.

Austin Faoliu DT 6-3 300

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Oregon, Austin Faoliu has 9 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 0 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 24.54 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 0 times this season, which put him in the 33.72 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Kayvon Thibodeaux DE 6-5 250

The leading tackler among Defensive Ends for Oregon, Kayvon Thibodeaux has 21 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 4 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 83.63 percentile among Defensive Ends. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 1 times this season, which put him in the 68.5 percentile among all Defensive Ends in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Jordan Happle S 5-11 205.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Oregon, Jordan Happle had 24 tackles which puts him in the 72.42 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss this season, which puts him in the 32.62 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 0 times this season. Jordan Happle as a ball hawker was able to pick off 1 passes this season, which puts him in the 84.5 percentile among returning secondary position players this season.

Deommodore Lenoir CB 5-11 195

Considered the leading tackler among Cornerbacks for Oregon, Deommodore Lenoir had 16 tackles which puts him in the 70.38 percentile among Corners. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss this season, which puts him in the 35.19 percentile among Corners. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 0 times this season. Deommodore Lenoir as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes this season, which puts him in the 37.54 percentile among Corners this season.

The California Roster

The Players to Watch for California

Chase Garbers QB 6-2 225

This season, Chase Garbers has put up 588 yards and 5 touchdowns. He has thrown 3 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 120.1thus far this season. Chase Garbers has thrown 3 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Chase Garbers has 68.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 69.84 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 29.0 times this season, which puts him in the 69.21 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 1.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Damien Moore RB 5-10 210

This season, Damien Moore has 168 rushing yards on 26 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 0 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Damien Moore picked up 10 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 1 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Kekoa Crawford WR 6-1 180

This season, Kekoa Crawford picked up 203 yards. He caught the ball 16 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 2 receiving touchdowns this season.

Brett Johnson DL 6-5 290

The leading tackler among Defensive Ends for California, Brett Johnson has 17 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 2 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 66.53 percentile among Defensive Ends. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 2 times this season, which put him in the 82.48 percentile among all Defensive Ends in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Elijah Hicks S 5-11 200.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for California, Elijah Hicks had 21 tackles which puts him in the 67.38 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss this season, which puts him in the 32.62 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 0 times this season. Elijah Hicks as a ball hawker was able to pick off 1 passes this season, which puts him in the 84.5 percentile among returning secondary position players this season.

Camryn Bynum CB 6-0 200

Considered the leading tackler among Cornerbacks for California, Camryn Bynum had 16 tackles which puts him in the 70.38 percentile among Corners. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 1 tackles for loss this season, which puts him in the 78.74 percentile among Corners. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 0 times this season. Camryn Bynum as a ball hawker was able to pick off 1 passes this season, which puts him in the 82.99 percentile among Corners this season.

Oregon vs. California Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: Oregon 34 California 18

Spread Pick: Oregon -8.5 -110 Bookmaker
Moneyline Pick: Oregon -315 SportsInteraction
Total Pick: Under 59 -110 BetOnline