College Football Picks, Predictions, and Previews: The Way It Oughtta Be

Oregon vs. Iowa State 1/2/2021 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

The Oregon visits Iowa State on 1/2/2021 at 4:00PM.

Oregon and Iowa State face off in a Bowl Game. Yes, it is the truncated postseason of College Football leading up to the College Football Playoff Semifinals. Oregon has a record of 4-2 this season. Iowa State is 8-3 this season. Both have players to meet and know.

Oregon Team Defense Preview

Oregon has had 72 total defensive drives this season and they yield 6.06 plays per drive. The struggle is real. Oregon cannot find a way to get opposing offenses off the field. Three and outs are not common and if the team needs a three-and-out late in a game to get the ball back, it is just not happening.Oregon has a generally average defense. Nothing too special about it, but they are capable of rising up when needed. Oregon opponents pass the football 51.15% of the time.Oregon tends to face teams that prefer to air it out or opponents want to air it out against them.

Oregon is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to create negative yardage plays on the ground. Opponent rushing yards attributed to their offensive line this season comes out to 2.69 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average defense when it comes to how offensive lines control or fail to control them on the ground. When it comes to getting to that second level, running backs are getting stopped. This defense does not allow themselves to be gashed. Opponents have shown a relatively average level of explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play against them.

This is not a disruptive Defense and they get pushed over way too easily. Perhaps they are too vanilla with playcalling. This front seven is simply unable to make an impact, something must change or else the problems will repeat. Oregon is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

Oregon Team Offense Preview

Oregon has had 69 total drives this season and they generate 5.28 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive they run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Any defense is in for a challenge with Oregon, given their ability to accrue more than 5 yards on 1st Downs and their ability to convert on 3rd and 4th Downs. They put a lot of pressure on opposing defenses.Passing plays make up 45.33% of their play calls.They favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

On first downs, getting ahead of the chains is crucial and running the ball well on first down can get a team there, Oregon has done a good job avoiding the negative yardage rushing plays. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 3.3 yards per carry. This is an elite offensive line when it comes to generating a push for the running game. They know how to create creases for running backs to break loose. Playing 7 in a box may not be enough for opposing defenses, this is a great O-Line. This is a team that is rather above-average when it comes to gashing defenses. The threat of the run should force opposing to play more honest and assignment defensive football is a must. They are capable of busting out a long run, which is really good when the team has the ball in their own territory.

Defenses have been able to impose their will on the Oregon Offense this season. Front sevens of opposing defenses are causing a lot of problems. Oregon has shown themselves to be a better running team than passing team this season.

Iowa State Team Defense Preview

Iowa State has had 119 total defensive drives this season and they yield 5.23 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive opponents run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Opponents face third and long situations a lot against this defense. This is a defense that forces opponents to commit penalties, have compromised offensive line play, and fail to convert on crunch possessions. Passing plays make up 52.57% of their opponents’ play calls.Iowa State tends to face teams that prefer to air it out or opponents want to air it out against them.

Iowa State opponents have struggled with running the ball and this defense has crushed the spirits of their opponents with zero or negative yard plays. 4th and Short is not a cake walk against this defense, maybe passing on 4th and Short or having some sort of RPO is the way to go here because if an Offensive Coordinator thinks that they can just line and run a Quarterback Sneak or hand it off to a tailback, they are mistaken. Opponent rushing yards attributed to their offensive line this season comes out to 2.54 yards per carry. Opponent offensive lines have been simply unable to support their running games against this defense. When it comes to getting to that second level, running backs are getting stopped. This defense does not allow themselves to be gashed. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to give up big rushing plays.

Disruptive plays are a part of the fabric of this team’s defensive effort. Game changing plays that drive Offensive Coordinators and Quarterbacks crazy, they find ways to deliver. Getting more specific, this front seven is a cause of a lot of headaches for offenses. They may be good enough to cause trouble in pass rush with just four rushers!Iowa State is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

Iowa State Team Offense Preview

Iowa State has had 123 total drives this season and they generate 5.49 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive they run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Any defense is in for a challenge with Iowa State, given their ability to accrue more than 5 yards on 1st Downs and their ability to convert on 3rd and 4th Downs. They put a lot of pressure on opposing defenses.Passing plays make up 49.04% of their play calls.Relatively speaking, this is a team that favors run/pass balance.

Iowa State is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to avoid negative yardage plays on the ground. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 3.04 yards per carry. This offensive line may be underappreciated, even though the running backs get the attention. The Iowa State coaching staff really deserves credit for how they prepared this offensive line, but they could be a little bit better! This is also a team that is getting to the second-level in an average fashion. Offensive line and running backs are average in this regard. They have an explosive running game and they are capable of breaking big yardage runs on First and Second Down. This puts a lot of pressure on Linebackers and Safeties.

Defenses have had trouble making big, disruptive plays against Iowa State this season. Iowa State is among the best in the country at keeping defensive front sevens at bay. Opposing defenses need their secondary players to step up and cause trouble in order for this Offense to be disrupted. Iowa State is a better passing team than running team this season.

The Oregon Roster

The Players to Watch for Oregon

Tyler Shough QB 6-5 221

This season, Tyler Shough has put up 1480 yards and 13 touchdowns. He has thrown 5 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 162.2thus far this season. Tyler Shough has thrown 5 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Tyler Shough has 263.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 88.99 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 62.0 times this season, which puts him in the 83.18 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 2.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Travis Dye RB 5-10 200

This season, Travis Dye has 391 rushing yards on 56 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 1 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Travis Dye picked up 221 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 8 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 4 receiving touchdowns this season.

Devon Williams WR 6-5 205

This season, Devon Williams picked up 264 yards. He caught the ball 13 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 2 receiving touchdowns this season.

Austin Faoliu DT 6-3 300

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Oregon, Austin Faoliu has 13 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 1 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 49.78 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 1 times this season, which put him in the 70.69 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Kayvon Thibodeaux DE 6-5 250.0

The leading tackler among Defensive Ends for Oregon, Kayvon Thibodeaux has 32 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 8 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 94.55 percentile among Defensive Ends. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 3 times this season, which put him in the 88.56 percentile among all Defensive Ends in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Verone McKinley III S 5-11 196.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Oregon, Verone McKinley III had 33 tackles which puts him in the 78.84 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss this season, which puts him in the 31.09 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 0 times this season. Verone McKinley III as a ball hawker was able to pick off 1 passes this season, which puts him in the 81.62 percentile among returning secondary position players this season.

Deommodore Lenoir CB 5-11 195

Considered the leading tackler among Cornerbacks for Oregon, Deommodore Lenoir had 24 tackles which puts him in the 75.21 percentile among Corners. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss this season, which puts him in the 33.29 percentile among Corners. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 0 times this season. Deommodore Lenoir as a ball hawker was able to pick off 1 passes this season, which puts him in the 79.59 percentile among Corners this season.

The Iowa State Roster

The Players to Watch for Iowa State

Brock Purdy QB 6-1 212

This season, Brock Purdy has put up 2594 yards and 18 touchdowns. He has thrown 9 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 143.5thus far this season. Brock Purdy has thrown 9 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Brock Purdy has 343.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 91.96 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 78.0 times this season, which puts him in the 88.84 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 4.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Breece Hall RB 6-1 215

This season, Breece Hall has 1436 rushing yards on 245 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 19 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Breece Hall picked up 170 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 21 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 2 receiving touchdowns this season.

Xavier Hutchinson WR 6-3 207

This season, Xavier Hutchinson picked up 726 yards. He caught the ball 60 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 4 receiving touchdowns this season.

Isaiah Lee DT 6-0 301

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Iowa State, Isaiah Lee has 12 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 0 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 21.55 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 0 times this season, which put him in the 30.39 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

JaQuan Bailey DE 6-2 261.0

The leading tackler among Defensive Ends for Iowa State, JaQuan Bailey has 38 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 13 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 99.16 percentile among Defensive Ends. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 7 times this season, which put him in the 98.61 percentile among all Defensive Ends in College Football. He has forced 1 fumbles this season.

Lawrence White DB 6-0 197.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Iowa State, Lawrence White had 56 tackles which puts him in the 94.91 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss this season, which puts him in the 31.09 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 0 times this season. Lawrence White as a ball hawker was able to pick off 1 passes this season, which puts him in the 81.62 percentile among returning secondary position players this season.

Oregon vs. Iowa State Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: Oregon 26 Iowa State 21

Spread Pick: Oregon +4.5 -105 5Dimes
Moneyline Pick: Oregon +175 matchbook
Total Pick: Under 58.5 -110 BetOnline