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Oregon vs. Oregon State 11/27/2020 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

The Oregon visits Oregon State on 11/27/2020 at 7:30PM.

Oregon and Oregon State face off in an important game for both teams as every game in this shortened season with limited or no fans in attendance means more. Oregon has a record of 3-0 this season. Oregon State is 1-2 this season. Both have players to meet and know.

Oregon Team Defense Preview

Oregon has had 34 total defensive drives this season and they yield 5.88 plays per drive. Oregon lets opponents run a lot of plays per drive and in the Fourth Quarter, this team could be gassed. Oregon has shown an inability to stop defenses from converting on 4th Downs and they let opponents get into manageable 3rd Down situations where an RPO may be especially deadly. Passing plays make up 48.50% of their opponents’ play calls.Opponents typically have some form of run/pass balance against them.

Oregon is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to create negative yardage plays on the ground. How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? Oregon can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 3.06 yards per carry. This defense lets offensive lines have too much control over them on the ground, too much push from the opposing offensive line. This is also a team that is allowing running backs and quarterbacks to get to the second-level in an average fashion. Opponents have shown a relatively average level of explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play against them.

This is not a disruptive Defense and they get pushed over way too easily. Perhaps they are too vanilla with playcalling. This front seven is simply unable to make an impact, something must change or else the problems will repeat. Oregon has shown themselves to be better at stopping the pass than the run this season.

Oregon Team Offense Preview

Oregon has had 34 total drives this season and they generate 5.53 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive they run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Any defense is in for a challenge with Oregon, given their ability to accrue more than 5 yards on 1st Downs and their ability to convert on 3rd and 4th Downs. They put a lot of pressure on opposing defenses.Oregon passes the football 47.34% of the time.Relatively speaking, this is a team that favors run/pass balance.

On first downs, getting ahead of the chains is crucial and running the ball well on first down can get a team there, Oregon has done a good job avoiding the negative yardage rushing plays. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. Oregon can take credit for 3.46 yards per carry. This is an elite offensive line when it comes to generating a push for the running game. They know how to create creases for running backs to break loose. Playing 7 in a box may not be enough for opposing defenses, this is a great O-Line. The offensive line and running back corps deserve a lot of credit for gashing defenses with their running game like the way they have this season. They have an explosive running game and they are capable of breaking big yardage runs on First and Second Down. This puts a lot of pressure on Linebackers and Safeties.

Defenses have had average success disrupting the flow of the Oregon Offense. Front sevens of opposing defenses are causing a lot of problems. Oregon has shown themselves to be a better running team than passing team this season.

Oregon State Team Defense Preview

Oregon State has had 35 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 6.2 plays per drive. The struggle is real. Oregon State cannot find a way to get opposing offenses off the field. Three and outs are not common and if the team needs a three-and-out late in a game to get the ball back, it is just not happening.Oregon State has shown an inability to stop defenses from converting on 4th Downs and they let opponents get into manageable 3rd Down situations where an RPO may be especially deadly. Passing plays make up 47.00% of their opponents’ play calls.Their opponents favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

Oregon State is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to create negative yardage plays on the ground. How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? Oregon State can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 2.95 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average defense when it comes to how offensive lines control or fail to control them on the ground. This is a team that is getting gashed too much for the tastes of their base. Linebackers are not stopping the bleeding well enough. They are capable of giving up a long run, which is really demoralizing when the opposing team has the ball deep in their own territory.

This is not a disruptive Defense and they get pushed over way too easily. Perhaps they are too vanilla with playcalling. This front seven is simply unable to make an impact, something must change or else the problems will repeat. Oregon State has shown themselves to be better at stopping the pass than the run this season.

Oregon State Team Offense Preview

Oregon State has had 33 total drives this season and they generate 5.58 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive they run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Oregon State has shown a capability to be explosive on first and second down to avoid third downs and has converted well (relatively) on 3rd and 4th Down situations. Oregon State passes the football 52.17% of the time.Oregon State tends to pass more than other teams.

Oregon State is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to avoid negative yardage plays on the ground. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 3.05 yards per carry. This offensive line may be underappreciated, even though the running backs get the attention. The Oregon State coaching staff really deserves credit for how they prepared this offensive line, but they could be a little bit better! This is also a team that is getting to the second-level in an average fashion. Offensive line and running backs are average in this regard. They are capable of busting out a long run, which is really good when the team has the ball in their own territory.

Defenses have had average success disrupting the flow of the Oregon State Offense. There has been a relatively good job done by this Offensive Line to prevent opposing front sevens from causing problems consistently. Oregon State has shown themselves to be a better running team than passing team this season.

The Oregon Roster

The Players to Watch for Oregon

Tyler Shough QB 6-5 221

This season, Tyler Shough has put up 873 yards and 8 touchdowns. He has thrown 2 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 177.6thus far this season. Tyler Shough has thrown 2 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Tyler Shough has 197.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 89.18 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 31.0 times this season, which puts him in the 72.95 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 1.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

CJ Verdell RB 5-10 210

This season, CJ Verdell has 241 rushing yards on 50 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 3 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, CJ Verdell picked up 82 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 8 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Devon Williams WR 6-5 205

This season, Devon Williams picked up 163 yards. He caught the ball 9 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.

Jordon Scott DT 6-1 311

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Oregon, Jordon Scott has 5 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 0 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 25.82 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 0 times this season, which put him in the 34.51 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Kayvon Thibodeaux DE 6-5 250

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Oregon, Kayvon Thibodeaux has 14 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 3 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 80.1 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 0 times this season, which put him in the 31.47 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Jordan Happle S 5-11 205.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Oregon, Jordan Happle had 17 tackles which puts him in the 63.4 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 33.65 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Jordan Happle as a ball hawker was able to pick off 1 passes last season, which puts him in the 85.62 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Deommodore Lenoir CB 5-11 195

Considered the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Oregon, Deommodore Lenoir had 11 tackles which puts him in the 59.17 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 35.17 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Deommodore Lenoir as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 38.07 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

The Oregon State Roster

The Players to Watch for Oregon State

Tristan Gebbia QB 6-2 201

This season, Tristan Gebbia has put up 561 yards and 2 touchdowns. He has thrown 3 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 113.8thus far this season. Tristan Gebbia has thrown 3 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Tristan Gebbia has -22.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 8.2 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 13.0 times this season, which puts him in the 48.85 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 1.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Jermar Jefferson RB 5-10 217

This season, Jermar Jefferson has 449 rushing yards on 62 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 5 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Jermar Jefferson picked up 51 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 6 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Trevon Bradford WR 6-0 182

This season, Trevon Bradford picked up 126 yards. He caught the ball 13 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.

Isaac Hodgins DL 6-0 265

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Oregon State, Isaac Hodgins has 14 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 0 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 22.49 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 0 times this season, which put him in the 31.47 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Akili Arnold DB 5-11 187.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Oregon State, Akili Arnold had 15 tackles which puts him in the 59.72 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 1 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 75.36 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Akili Arnold as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 39.16 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Oregon vs. Oregon State Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: Oregon 36 Oregon State 17

Spread Pick: Oregon -12 -110 Bookmaker
Moneyline Pick: Oregon -410 matchbook
Total Pick: Under 66.5 -107 matchbook