College Football Picks, Predictions, and Previews: The Way It Oughtta Be

Penn State vs. Michigan 11/28/2020 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

The Penn State visits Michigan on 11/28/2020 at 12:00PM.

Penn State and Michigan face off in an important game for both teams as every game in this shortened season with limited or no fans in attendance means more. Penn State has a record of 0-5 this season. Michigan is 2-3 this season. Both have players to meet and know.

Penn State Team Defense Preview

Penn State has had 63 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 5.17 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive opponents run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Penn State has a generally average defense. Nothing too special about it, but they are capable of rising up when needed. Penn State opponents pass the football 45.40% of the time.Their opponents favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

Defenses want to stop offenses from getting into a 3rd Down where the options are plentiful. Unfortunately, this defense is too porous to limit those choices. Opponent rushing yards attributed to their offensive line this season comes out to 2.55 yards per carry. Opponent offensive lines have been simply unable to support their running games against this defense. When it comes to getting to that second level, running backs are getting stopped. This defense does not allow themselves to be gashed. Opponents have shown a relatively average level of explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play against them.

This Defense has had average success disrupting the flow of the opposing offense.. Getting more granual into the front seven and their ability to cause trouble, they are just average in this regard. Penn State is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

Penn State Team Offense Preview

Penn State has had 64 total drives this season and they generate 5.88 plays per drive. Penn State runs a lot of plays per drive and this could wear an opposing defense down. Penn State has shown a capability to be explosive on first and second down to avoid third downs and has converted well (relatively) on 3rd and 4th Down situations. Passing plays make up 53.72% of their play calls.Penn State tends to pass more than other teams.

Penn State is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to avoid negative yardage plays on the ground. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 3.09 yards per carry. This offensive line may be underappreciated, even though the running backs get the attention. The Penn State coaching staff really deserves credit for how they prepared this offensive line, but they could be a little bit better! This is also a team that is getting to the second-level in an average fashion. Offensive line and running backs are average in this regard. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to bust out big rushing plays.

Defenses have had average success disrupting the flow of the Penn State Offense. Front sevens are causing an average amount of trouble for the Offense. Penn State is a better passing team than running team this season.

Michigan Team Defense Preview

Michigan has had 60 total defensive drives this season and they yield 5.67 plays per drive. Michigan lets opponents run a lot of plays per drive and in the Fourth Quarter, this team could be gassed. Michigan has a generally average defense. Nothing too special about it, but they are capable of rising up when needed. Passing plays make up 48.82% of their opponents’ play calls.Opponents typically have some form of run/pass balance against them.

Defenses want to stop offenses from getting into a 3rd Down where the options are plentiful. Unfortunately, this defense is too porous to limit those choices. How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? Michigan can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 2.81 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average defense when it comes to how offensive lines control or fail to control them on the ground. When it comes to getting to that second level, running backs are getting stopped. This defense does not allow themselves to be gashed. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to give up big rushing plays.

This is not a disruptive Defense and they get pushed over way too easily. Perhaps they are too vanilla with playcalling. This front seven is simply unable to make an impact, something must change or else the problems will repeat. Michigan is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

Michigan Team Offense Preview

Michigan has had 57 drives in non-garbage time minutes and they average 5.21 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, Michigan is not a team that runs many plays per drive. The offense is either prone to faltering and struggles to notch first downs or extremely explosive, we will need to find out a bit more to get answers. Michigan is an average offense when it comes to staying ahead of the chains, getting into 3rd and Short scenarios, and converting on 3rd and 4th Down. Michigan passes the football 58.59% of the time.This is an Air Raid Offense team, they are going to pass the ball a lot and running plays are only used to keep opponents honest.

Michigan is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to avoid negative yardage plays on the ground. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. Michigan can take credit for 2.72 yards per carry. So what does this mean? It means that the offensive line has been incredibly disappointing in their contribution to the ground game. This is also a team that is getting to the second-level in an average fashion. Offensive line and running backs are average in this regard. They are capable of busting out a long run, which is really good when the team has the ball in their own territory.

Defenses have had average success disrupting the flow of the Michigan Offense. Michigan is among the best in the country at keeping defensive front sevens at bay. Opposing defenses need their secondary players to step up and cause trouble in order for this Offense to be disrupted. Michigan is a better passing team than running team this season.

The Penn State Roster

The Players to Watch for Penn State

Sean Clifford QB 6-2 217

This season, Sean Clifford has put up 1070 yards and 11 touchdowns. He has thrown 8 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 129.7thus far this season. Sean Clifford has thrown 8 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Sean Clifford has 182.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 87.87 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 64.0 times this season, which puts him in the 89.84 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 1.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Devyn Ford RB 5-11 198

This season, Devyn Ford has 209 rushing yards on 56 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 2 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Devyn Ford picked up 17 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 6 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Jahan Dotson WR 5-11 182

This season, Jahan Dotson picked up 527 yards. He caught the ball 31 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 6 receiving touchdowns this season.

PJ Mustipher DT 6-4 300

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Penn State, PJ Mustipher has 22 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 0 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 25.82 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 0 times this season, which put him in the 34.51 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Jayson Oweh DE 6-5 252

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Penn State, Jayson Oweh has 33 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 6 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 93.29 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 0 times this season, which put him in the 31.47 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Jaquan Brisker S 6-1 212.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Penn State, Jaquan Brisker had 32 tackles which puts him in the 88.04 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 2 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 88.98 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Jaquan Brisker as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 39.16 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Joey Porter Jr. CB 6-2 193

Considered the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Penn State, Joey Porter Jr. had 20 tackles which puts him in the 80.43 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 1 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 78.9 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 1 times last season. Joey Porter Jr. as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 38.07 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

The Michigan Roster

The Players to Watch for Michigan

Joe Milton QB 6-5 243

This season, Joe Milton has put up 1056 yards and 4 touchdowns. He has thrown 4 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 125.3thus far this season. Joe Milton has thrown 4 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Joe Milton has 101.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 78.69 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 36.0 times this season, which puts him in the 78.2 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 1.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Hassan Haskins RB 6-1 220

This season, Hassan Haskins has 274 rushing yards on 44 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 4 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Hassan Haskins picked up 0 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 0 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Ronnie Bell WR 6-0 190

This season, Ronnie Bell picked up 361 yards. He caught the ball 22 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.

Carlo Kemp DL 6-3 286

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Michigan, Carlo Kemp has 15 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 2 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 68.37 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 2 times this season, which put him in the 83.9 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Brad Hawkins DB 6-1 218.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Michigan, Brad Hawkins had 40 tackles which puts him in the 93.46 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 1 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 75.36 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Brad Hawkins as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 39.16 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Penn State vs. Michigan Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: Penn State 30 Michigan 27

Spread Pick: Penn State +1.5 -116 matchbook
Moneyline Pick: Penn State +110 Mybookie.ag
Total Pick: Under 58.5 -113 Pinnacle Sports