College Football Picks, Predictions, and Previews: The Way It Oughtta Be

Pittsburgh vs. Florida State 11/7/2020 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

The Pittsburgh visits Florida State on 11/7/2020 at 4:00PM.

Pittsburgh and Florida State face off in an important game for both teams as every game in this shortened season with limited or no fans in attendance means more. Pittsburgh has a record of 3-4 this season. Florida State is 2-4 this season. Both have players to meet and know.

Pittsburgh Team Defense Preview

Pittsburgh has had 80 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 5.06 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, Pittsburgh is not a team that allows many plays per drive. This defense either gives up big plays quickly or induces a lot of three-and-outs, we shall find out more. Opponents face third and long situations a lot against this defense. This is a defense that forces opponents to commit penalties, have compromised offensive line play, and fail to convert on crunch possessions. Pittsburgh opponents pass the football 54.81% of the time.Pittsburgh tends to face teams that prefer to air it out or opponents want to air it out against them.

Pittsburgh opponents have struggled with running the ball and this defense has crushed the spirits of their opponents with zero or negative yard plays. 4th and Short is not a cake walk against this defense, maybe passing on 4th and Short or having some sort of RPO is the way to go here because if an Offensive Coordinator thinks that they can just line and run a Quarterback Sneak or hand it off to a tailback, they are mistaken. How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? Pittsburgh can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 1.82 yards per carry. Opponent offensive lines have been simply unable to support their running games against this defense. When it comes to getting to that second level, running backs are getting stopped. This defense does not allow themselves to be gashed. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to give up big rushing plays.

Pittsburgh has made the turnover belt, chain, pads, lunch pail or whatever gimmick they use change hands a lot. This is a Defense that causes pure aggravation. Pittsburgh should have a sign ready for opponents near the Visitor Locker Room that says “Welcome to Hell”, this front seven is deep and they cause a lot of problems. Pittsburgh is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

Pittsburgh Team Offense Preview

Pittsburgh has had 80 total drives this season and they generate 5.75 plays per drive. Pittsburgh runs a lot of plays per drive and this could wear an opposing defense down. Struggles to get ahead of the chains and convert on third and fourth down are common, the offense can stagnate. Passing plays make up 54.78% of their play calls.Pittsburgh tends to pass more than other teams.

Pittsburgh struggles with running the ball, getting zero or negative yard plays is disspiriting and the offensive line is not effectively making a good push. Poor playcalling, pre-snap adjustments or post-snap reads may be responsible and this could fall on the Quarterback, Offensive Coordinator, and Head Coach. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 2.03 yards per carry. So what does this mean? It means that the offensive line has been incredibly disappointing in their contribution to the ground game. When it comes to getting to that second level where linebackers have not crashed down on the line of scrimmage, they are getting stopped with ease. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to bust out big rushing plays.

Defenses have been able to impose their will on the Pittsburgh Offense this season. Front sevens of opposing defenses are causing a lot of problems. Pittsburgh has shown themselves to be a better running team than passing team this season.

Florida State Team Defense Preview

Florida State has had 66 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 5.83 plays per drive. Florida State lets opponents run a lot of plays per drive and in the Fourth Quarter, this team could be gassed. Offensives should lick their lips given their inability to stop anyone, this is one of the worst defenses in the country. The Defensive Coordinator coaching search threads on Florida State message boards are flights of fantasy. Passing plays make up 49.35% of their opponents’ play calls.Opponents typically have some form of run/pass balance against them.

Defenses want to stop offenses from getting into a 3rd Down where the options are plentiful. Unfortunately, this defense is too porous to limit those choices. Opponent rushing yards attributed to their offensive line this season comes out to 3.35 yards per carry. Sorry to say this about this front seven, but the best way to make an average offensive line look good is for them to face this horrid front seven. Running backs should look forward to this porous defense filled with poor tacklers who take terrible angles. They are capable of giving up a long run, which is really demoralizing when the opposing team has the ball deep in their own territory.

This is not a disruptive Defense and they get pushed over way too easily. Perhaps they are too vanilla with playcalling. This front seven is simply unable to make an impact, something must change or else the problems will repeat. Florida State is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

Florida State Team Offense Preview

Florida State has had 66 total drives this season and they generate 5.67 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive they run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Florida State is an average offense when it comes to staying ahead of the chains, getting into 3rd and Short scenarios, and converting on 3rd and 4th Down. Florida State passes the football 48.13% of the time.Relatively speaking, this is a team that favors run/pass balance.

On first downs, getting ahead of the chains is crucial and running the ball well on first down can get a team there, Florida State has done a good job avoiding the negative yardage rushing plays. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 3.29 yards per carry. This offensive line may be underappreciated, even though the running backs get the attention. The Florida State coaching staff really deserves credit for how they prepared this offensive line, but they could be a little bit better! The offensive line and running back corps deserve a lot of credit for gashing defenses with their running game like the way they have this season. They feature a relatively average explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play, but it is not something to count on from them.

Defenses have been able to impose their will on the Florida State Offense this season. Front sevens are causing an average amount of trouble for the Offense. Florida State has shown themselves to be a better running team than passing team this season.

The Pittsburgh Roster

The Players to Watch for Pittsburgh

Kenny Pickett QB 6-2 220

This season, Kenny Pickett has put up 1389 yards and 8 touchdowns. He has thrown 3 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 136.2thus far this season. Kenny Pickett has thrown 3 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Kenny Pickett has 119.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 87.06 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 45.0 times this season, which puts him in the 88.24 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 5.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Vincent Davis RB 5-8 175

This season, Vincent Davis has 270 rushing yards on 91 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 3 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Vincent Davis picked up 104 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 17 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Jordan Addison WR 6-0 170

This season, Jordan Addison picked up 484 yards. He caught the ball 41 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 3 receiving touchdowns this season.

Patrick Jones II DL 6-5 260

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Pittsburgh, Patrick Jones II has 27 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 9 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 99.43 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 7 times this season, which put him in the 99.75 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Paris Ford DB 6-0 190

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Pittsburgh, Paris Ford had 41 tackles which puts him in the 97.27 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 3 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 96.9 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Paris Ford as a ball hawker was able to pick off 3 passes last season, which puts him in the 99.42 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

The Florida State Roster

The Players to Watch for Florida State

Jordan Travis QB 6-1 200

This season, Jordan Travis has put up 758 yards and 4 touchdowns. He has thrown 4 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 123.0thus far this season. Jordan Travis has thrown 4 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Jordan Travis has 389.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 98.82 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 71.0 times this season, which puts him in the 97.45 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 5.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

La’Damian Webb RB 5-8 190

This season, La’Damian Webb has 336 rushing yards on 57 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 3 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, La’Damian Webb picked up 25 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 3 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Tamorrion Terry WR 6-4 210

This season, Tamorrion Terry picked up 275 yards. He caught the ball 21 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.

Marvin Wilson DT 6-5 305

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Florida State, Marvin Wilson has 17 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 2 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 80.33 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 1 times this season, which put him in the 82.24 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Janarius Robinson DE 6-5 260

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Florida State, Janarius Robinson has 12 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 3 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 86.16 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 2 times this season, which put him in the 87.42 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Renardo Green DB 6-0 185

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Florida State, Renardo Green had 27 tackles which puts him in the 89.02 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 35.61 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Renardo Green as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 40.81 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Pittsburgh vs. Florida State Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: Pittsburgh 28 Florida State 21

Spread Pick: Pittsburgh +2.5 -115 Pinnacle Sports
Moneyline Pick: Pittsburgh +110 5Dimes
Total Pick: Under 51.5 -110 JazzSports