College Football Picks, Predictions, and Previews: The Way It Oughtta Be

Purdue vs. Minnesota 11/20/2020 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

The Purdue visits Minnesota on 11/20/2020 at 7:30PM.

Purdue and Minnesota face off in an important game for both teams as every game in this shortened season with limited or no fans in attendance means more. Purdue has a record of 2-1 this season. Minnesota is 1-3 this season. Both have players to meet and know.

Purdue Team Defense Preview

Purdue has had 39 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 5.67 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive opponents run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Purdue has a generally average defense. Nothing too special about it, but they are capable of rising up when needed. Passing plays make up 49.32% of their opponents’ play calls.Opponents typically have some form of run/pass balance against them.

Purdue is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to create negative yardage plays on the ground. How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? Purdue can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 2.52 yards per carry. Opponent offensive lines have been simply unable to support their running games against this defense. This is also a team that is allowing running backs and quarterbacks to get to the second-level in an average fashion. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to give up big rushing plays.

This Defense has had average success disrupting the flow of the opposing offense.. Getting more granual into the front seven and their ability to cause trouble, they are just average in this regard. Purdue is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

Purdue Team Offense Preview

Purdue has had 38 drives in non-garbage time minutes and they average 5.34 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive they run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Struggles to get ahead of the chains and convert on third and fourth down are common, the offense can stagnate. Passing plays make up 69.46% of their play calls.This is an Air Raid Offense team, they are going to pass the ball a lot and running plays are only used to keep opponents honest.

Purdue struggles with running the ball, getting zero or negative yard plays is disspiriting and the offensive line is not effectively making a good push. Poor playcalling, pre-snap adjustments or post-snap reads may be responsible and this could fall on the Quarterback, Offensive Coordinator, and Head Coach. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. Purdue can take credit for 2.3 yards per carry. So what does this mean? It means that the offensive line has been incredibly disappointing in their contribution to the ground game. When it comes to getting to that second level where linebackers have not crashed down on the line of scrimmage, they are getting stopped with ease. They feature a relatively average explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play, but it is not something to count on from them.

Defenses have had average success disrupting the flow of the Purdue Offense. Front sevens are causing an average amount of trouble for the Offense. Purdue is a better passing team than running team this season.

Minnesota Team Defense Preview

Minnesota has had 40 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 4.88 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, Minnesota is not a team that allows many plays per drive. This defense either gives up big plays quickly or induces a lot of three-and-outs, we shall find out more. Offensives should lick their lips given their inability to stop anyone, this is one of the worst defenses in the country. The Defensive Coordinator coaching search threads on Minnesota message boards are flights of fantasy. Minnesota opponents pass the football 43.08% of the time.Their opponents favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

This is a pushover defense. There is not enough push from the Defensive Line and not enough imagination from the Defensive Coordinator to cause chaos in the backfield.How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? Minnesota can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 3.33 yards per carry. Sorry to say this about this front seven, but the best way to make an average offensive line look good is for them to face this horrid front seven. Running backs should look forward to this porous defense filled with poor tacklers who take terrible angles. Long breakout runs against this Defense are far too common. This is a very porous rushing defense that is incapable of preventing a situation where their safeties chase down a running back or quarterback.

This is not a disruptive Defense and they get pushed over way too easily. Perhaps they are too vanilla with playcalling. This front seven is simply unable to make an impact, something must change or else the problems will repeat. Minnesota has shown themselves to be better at stopping the pass than the run this season.

Minnesota Team Offense Preview

Minnesota has had 40 total drives this season and they generate 5.8 plays per drive. Minnesota runs a lot of plays per drive and this could wear an opposing defense down. Minnesota has shown a capability to be explosive on first and second down to avoid third downs and has converted well (relatively) on 3rd and 4th Down situations. Minnesota passes the football 38.79% of the time.They favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

Move the pile forward, falling forward, making progress, ensuring north-south running, smart Quarterback reads, well-adjusted alignments to ensure leverage, and an offensive line that is getting a great push forward are cornerstones of this offense. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. Minnesota can take credit for 3.58 yards per carry. This is an elite offensive line when it comes to generating a push for the running game. They know how to create creases for running backs to break loose. Playing 7 in a box may not be enough for opposing defenses, this is a great O-Line. This is a team that is rather above-average when it comes to gashing defenses. The threat of the run should force opposing to play more honest and assignment defensive football is a must. They are capable of busting out a long run, which is really good when the team has the ball in their own territory.

Defenses have had trouble making big, disruptive plays against Minnesota this season. There has been a relatively good job done by this Offensive Line to prevent opposing front sevens from causing problems consistently. Minnesota has shown themselves to be a better running team than passing team this season.

The Purdue Roster

The Players to Watch for Purdue

Aidan O’Connell QB 6-3 200

This season, Aidan O’Connell has put up 916 yards and 7 touchdowns. He has thrown 2 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 135.3thus far this season. Aidan O’Connell has thrown 2 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Aidan O’Connell has -69.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 1.37 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 12.0 times this season, which puts him in the 50.0 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 0.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Alexander Horvath RB 6-3 230

This season, Alexander Horvath has 252 rushing yards on 53 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 1 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Alexander Horvath picked up 155 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 17 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

David Bell WR 6-2 205

This season, David Bell picked up 321 yards. He caught the ball 31 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 4 receiving touchdowns this season.

Lorenzo Neal DT 6-3 325

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Purdue, Lorenzo Neal has 7 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 0 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 27.32 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 0 times this season, which put him in the 35.37 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Branson Deen DL 6-2 275

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Purdue, Branson Deen has 6 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 0 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 23.34 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 0 times this season, which put him in the 32.51 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Brennan Thieneman S 6-1 210

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Purdue, Brennan Thieneman had 18 tackles which puts him in the 68.23 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 34.23 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Brennan Thieneman as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 39.52 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Cam Allen CB 6-1 200

Considered the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Purdue, Cam Allen had 12 tackles which puts him in the 66.4 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 1 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 80.57 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Cam Allen as a ball hawker was able to pick off 2 passes last season, which puts him in the 94.59 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

The Minnesota Roster

The Players to Watch for Minnesota

Tanner Morgan QB 6-2 215

This season, Tanner Morgan has put up 769 yards and 4 touchdowns. He has thrown 4 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 123.4thus far this season. Tanner Morgan has thrown 4 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Tanner Morgan has -35.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 4.47 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 18.0 times this season, which puts him in the 58.42 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 0.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Mohamed Ibrahim RB 5-10 210

This season, Mohamed Ibrahim has 715 rushing yards on 130 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 10 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Mohamed Ibrahim picked up 56 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 8 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Rashod Bateman WR 6-2 210

This season, Rashod Bateman picked up 413 yards. He caught the ball 32 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 2 receiving touchdowns this season.

Boye Mafe DL 6-4 265

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Minnesota, Boye Mafe has 16 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 4 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 87.03 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 4 times this season, which put him in the 95.7 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 1 fumbles this season.

Tyler Nubin DB 6-2 205

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Minnesota, Tyler Nubin had 25 tackles which puts him in the 80.24 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 34.23 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Tyler Nubin as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 39.52 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Purdue vs. Minnesota Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: Purdue 38 Minnesota 37

Spread Pick: Minnesota +3 -110 JazzSports
Moneyline Pick: Purdue -112 Pinnacle Sports
Total Pick: Over 60.5 -112 Pinnacle Sports