College Football Picks, Predictions, and Previews: The Way It Oughtta Be

San Diego State vs. Colorado 11/28/2020 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

The San Diego State visits Colorado on 11/28/2020 at 5:00PM.

San Diego State and Colorado face off in an important game for both teams as every game in this shortened season with limited or no fans in attendance means more. San Diego State has a record of 3-2 this season. Colorado is 2-0 this season. Both have players to meet and know.

San Diego State Team Defense Preview

San Diego State has had 59 total defensive drives this season and they yield 4.71 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, San Diego State is not a team that allows many plays per drive. This defense either gives up big plays quickly or induces a lot of three-and-outs, we shall find out more. Opponents face third and long situations a lot against this defense. This is a defense that forces opponents to commit penalties, have compromised offensive line play, and fail to convert on crunch possessions. Passing plays make up 57.91% of their opponents’ play calls.They are a team that faces a lot of Air Raid Offenses.

San Diego State opponents have struggled with running the ball and this defense has crushed the spirits of their opponents with zero or negative yard plays. 4th and Short is not a cake walk against this defense, maybe passing on 4th and Short or having some sort of RPO is the way to go here because if an Offensive Coordinator thinks that they can just line and run a Quarterback Sneak or hand it off to a tailback, they are mistaken. Opponent rushing yards attributed to their offensive line this season comes out to 2.33 yards per carry. Opponent offensive lines have been simply unable to support their running games against this defense. When it comes to getting to that second level, running backs are getting stopped. This defense does not allow themselves to be gashed. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to give up big rushing plays.

San Diego State has made the turnover belt, chain, pads, lunch pail or whatever gimmick they use change hands a lot. This is a Defense that causes pure aggravation. San Diego State should have a sign ready for opponents near the Visitor Locker Room that says “Welcome to Hell”, this front seven is deep and they cause a lot of problems. San Diego State is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

San Diego State Team Offense Preview

San Diego State has had 57 total drives this season and they generate 5.53 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive they run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. San Diego State is an average offense when it comes to staying ahead of the chains, getting into 3rd and Short scenarios, and converting on 3rd and 4th Down. San Diego State passes the football 38.73% of the time.They favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

San Diego State struggles with running the ball, getting zero or negative yard plays is disspiriting and the offensive line is not effectively making a good push. Poor playcalling, pre-snap adjustments or post-snap reads may be responsible and this could fall on the Quarterback, Offensive Coordinator, and Head Coach. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. San Diego State can take credit for 2.76 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average offensive line as far as their ability to set up the running game. This is a team that is rather above-average when it comes to gashing defenses. The threat of the run should force opposing to play more honest and assignment defensive football is a must. They have an explosive running game and they are capable of breaking big yardage runs on First and Second Down. This puts a lot of pressure on Linebackers and Safeties.

Defenses have been able to impose their will on the San Diego State Offense this season. Front sevens of opposing defenses are causing a lot of problems. San Diego State has shown themselves to be a better running team than passing team this season.

Colorado Team Defense Preview

Colorado has had 26 total defensive drives this season and they yield 5.12 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, Colorado is not a team that allows many plays per drive. This defense either gives up big plays quickly or induces a lot of three-and-outs, we shall find out more. Opponents face third and long situations a lot against this defense. This is a defense that forces opponents to commit penalties, have compromised offensive line play, and fail to convert on crunch possessions. Colorado opponents pass the football 70.68% of the time.They are a team that faces a lot of Air Raid Offenses.

Defenses want to stop offenses from getting into a 3rd Down where the options are plentiful. Unfortunately, this defense is too porous to limit those choices. Opponent rushing yards attributed to their offensive line this season comes out to 3.1 yards per carry. This defense lets offensive lines have too much control over them on the ground, too much push from the opposing offensive line. Running backs should look forward to this porous defense filled with poor tacklers who take terrible angles. Long breakout runs against this Defense are far too common. This is a very porous rushing defense that is incapable of preventing a situation where their safeties chase down a running back or quarterback.

Colorado has made the turnover belt, chain, pads, lunch pail or whatever gimmick they use change hands a lot. This is a Defense that causes pure aggravation. Getting more granual into the front seven and their ability to cause trouble, they are just average in this regard. Colorado is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

Colorado Team Offense Preview

Colorado has had 29 total drives this season and they generate 5.38 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive they run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Colorado has shown a capability to be explosive on first and second down to avoid third downs and has converted well (relatively) on 3rd and 4th Down situations. Colorado passes the football 36.54% of the time.They favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

Colorado is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to avoid negative yardage plays on the ground. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 2.94 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average offensive line as far as their ability to set up the running game. When it comes to getting to that second level where linebackers have not crashed down on the line of scrimmage, they are getting stopped with ease. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to bust out big rushing plays.

Colorado has bullied and controlled defenses this season, defenses have not been able to dictate what this offense is able to do to them. Opponents should consider a containment strategy. Colorado is among the best in the country at keeping defensive front sevens at bay. Opposing defenses need their secondary players to step up and cause trouble in order for this Offense to be disrupted. Colorado has shown themselves to be a better running team than passing team this season.

The San Diego State Roster

The Players to Watch for San Diego State

Carson Baker QB 6-3 210

This season, Carson Baker has put up 591 yards and 3 touchdowns. He has thrown 3 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 113.1thus far this season. Carson Baker has thrown 3 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Carson Baker has 5.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 34.26 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 24.0 times this season, which puts him in the 66.89 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 1.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Greg Bell RB 6-0 200

This season, Greg Bell has 565 rushing yards on 94 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 6 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Greg Bell picked up 72 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 9 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.

Jesse Matthews WR 6-0 190

This season, Jesse Matthews picked up 253 yards. He caught the ball 15 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Jonah Tavai DL 6-0 305

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for San Diego State, Jonah Tavai has 11 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 5 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 90.07 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 3 times this season, which put him in the 91.71 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 1 fumbles this season.

Tariq Thompson S 6-0 210.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for San Diego State, Tariq Thompson had 30 tackles which puts him in the 85.66 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 2 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 88.98 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Tariq Thompson as a ball hawker was able to pick off 1 passes last season, which puts him in the 85.62 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Darren Hall CB 6-0 190

Considered the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for San Diego State, Darren Hall had 26 tackles which puts him in the 91.44 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 2 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 92.66 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Darren Hall as a ball hawker was able to pick off 1 passes last season, which puts him in the 83.79 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

The Colorado Roster

The Players to Watch for Colorado

Sam Noyer QB 6-4 220

This season, Sam Noyer has put up 512 yards and 3 touchdowns. He has thrown 1 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 156.2thus far this season. Sam Noyer has thrown 1 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Sam Noyer has 100.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 78.36 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 21.0 times this season, which puts him in the 63.28 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 3.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Jarek Broussard RB 5-9 185

This season, Jarek Broussard has 308 rushing yards on 58 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 3 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Jarek Broussard picked up 22 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 3 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Dimitri Stanley WR 5-11 195

This season, Dimitri Stanley picked up 192 yards. He caught the ball 12 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.

Jalen Sami DT 6-6 325

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Colorado, Jalen Sami has 2 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 0 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 25.82 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 0 times this season, which put him in the 34.51 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Mustafa Johnson DE 6-2 290

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Colorado, Mustafa Johnson has 5 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 2 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 68.37 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 1 times this season, which put him in the 70.17 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Derrion Rakestraw S 6-2 200.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Colorado, Derrion Rakestraw had 8 tackles which puts him in the 43.01 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 33.65 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Derrion Rakestraw as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 39.16 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Christian Gonzalez CB 6-2 200

Considered the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Colorado, Christian Gonzalez had 10 tackles which puts him in the 56.12 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 35.17 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Christian Gonzalez as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 38.07 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

San Diego State vs. Colorado Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: San Diego State 26 Colorado 13

Spread Pick: San Diego State +3 -107 Pinnacle Sports
Moneyline Pick: San Diego State +135 5Dimes
Total Pick: Under 51.5 -108 5Dimes