College Football Picks, Predictions, and Previews: The Way It Oughtta Be

San Diego State vs. Nevada 11/21/2020 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

The San Diego State visits Nevada on 11/21/2020 at 3:30PM.

San Diego State and Nevada face off in an important game for both teams as every game in this shortened season with limited or no fans in attendance means more. San Diego State has a record of 3-1 this season. Nevada is 4-0 this season. Both have players to meet and know.

San Diego State Team Defense Preview

San Diego State has had 45 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 4.71 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, San Diego State is not a team that allows many plays per drive. This defense either gives up big plays quickly or induces a lot of three-and-outs, we shall find out more. Opponents face third and long situations a lot against this defense. This is a defense that forces opponents to commit penalties, have compromised offensive line play, and fail to convert on crunch possessions. San Diego State opponents pass the football 54.72% of the time.San Diego State tends to face teams that prefer to air it out or opponents want to air it out against them.

San Diego State opponents have struggled with running the ball and this defense has crushed the spirits of their opponents with zero or negative yard plays. 4th and Short is not a cake walk against this defense, maybe passing on 4th and Short or having some sort of RPO is the way to go here because if an Offensive Coordinator thinks that they can just line and run a Quarterback Sneak or hand it off to a tailback, they are mistaken. Opponent rushing yards attributed to their offensive line this season comes out to 2.27 yards per carry. Opponent offensive lines have been simply unable to support their running games against this defense. When it comes to getting to that second level, running backs are getting stopped. This defense does not allow themselves to be gashed. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to give up big rushing plays.

San Diego State has made the turnover belt, chain, pads, lunch pail or whatever gimmick they use change hands a lot. This is a Defense that causes pure aggravation. San Diego State should have a sign ready for opponents near the Visitor Locker Room that says “Welcome to Hell”, this front seven is deep and they cause a lot of problems. San Diego State is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

San Diego State Team Offense Preview

San Diego State has had 43 total drives this season and they generate 5.98 plays per drive. San Diego State runs a lot of plays per drive and this could wear an opposing defense down. San Diego State is an average offense when it comes to staying ahead of the chains, getting into 3rd and Short scenarios, and converting on 3rd and 4th Down. Passing plays make up 36.96% of their play calls.They favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

San Diego State struggles with running the ball, getting zero or negative yard plays is disspiriting and the offensive line is not effectively making a good push. Poor playcalling, pre-snap adjustments or post-snap reads may be responsible and this could fall on the Quarterback, Offensive Coordinator, and Head Coach. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 2.82 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average offensive line as far as their ability to set up the running game. This is a team that is rather above-average when it comes to gashing defenses. The threat of the run should force opposing to play more honest and assignment defensive football is a must. They have an explosive running game and they are capable of breaking big yardage runs on First and Second Down. This puts a lot of pressure on Linebackers and Safeties.

Defenses have been able to impose their will on the San Diego State Offense this season. Front sevens of opposing defenses are causing a lot of problems. San Diego State has shown themselves to be a better running team than passing team this season.

Nevada Team Defense Preview

Nevada has had 47 total defensive drives this season and they yield 5.47 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive opponents run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Opponents face third and long situations a lot against this defense. This is a defense that forces opponents to commit penalties, have compromised offensive line play, and fail to convert on crunch possessions. Nevada opponents pass the football 53.31% of the time.Nevada tends to face teams that prefer to air it out or opponents want to air it out against them.

Defenses want to stop offenses from getting into a 3rd Down where the options are plentiful. Unfortunately, this defense is too porous to limit those choices. Opponent rushing yards attributed to their offensive line this season comes out to 2.98 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average defense when it comes to how offensive lines control or fail to control them on the ground. This is also a team that is allowing running backs and quarterbacks to get to the second-level in an average fashion. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to give up big rushing plays.

This is not a disruptive Defense and they get pushed over way too easily. Perhaps they are too vanilla with playcalling. This front seven is simply unable to make an impact, something must change or else the problems will repeat. Nevada has shown themselves to be better at stopping the pass than the run this season.

Nevada Team Offense Preview

Nevada has had 47 drives in non-garbage time minutes and they average 5.47 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive they run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Nevada has shown a capability to be explosive on first and second down to avoid third downs and has converted well (relatively) on 3rd and 4th Down situations. Passing plays make up 67.32% of their play calls.This is an Air Raid Offense team, they are going to pass the ball a lot and running plays are only used to keep opponents honest.

Nevada struggles with running the ball, getting zero or negative yard plays is disspiriting and the offensive line is not effectively making a good push. Poor playcalling, pre-snap adjustments or post-snap reads may be responsible and this could fall on the Quarterback, Offensive Coordinator, and Head Coach. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 2.29 yards per carry. So what does this mean? It means that the offensive line has been incredibly disappointing in their contribution to the ground game. This is also a team that is getting to the second-level in an average fashion. Offensive line and running backs are average in this regard. They have an explosive running game and they are capable of breaking big yardage runs on First and Second Down. This puts a lot of pressure on Linebackers and Safeties.

Defenses have had average success disrupting the flow of the Nevada Offense. Front sevens of opposing defenses are causing a lot of problems. Nevada is a better passing team than running team this season.

The San Diego State Roster

The Players to Watch for San Diego State

Carson Baker QB 6-3 210

This season, Carson Baker has put up 591 yards and 3 touchdowns. He has thrown 3 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 114.3thus far this season. Carson Baker has thrown 3 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Carson Baker has 0.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 24.23 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 21.0 times this season, which puts him in the 64.68 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 1.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Greg Bell RB 6-0 200

This season, Greg Bell has 537 rushing yards on 85 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 5 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Greg Bell picked up 72 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 9 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.

Jesse Matthews WR 6-0 190

This season, Jesse Matthews picked up 173 yards. He caught the ball 10 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Keshawn Banks DL 6-4 275

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for San Diego State, Keshawn Banks has 8 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 4 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 86.99 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 0 times this season, which put him in the 32.27 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 1 fumbles this season.

Tariq Thompson S 6-0 210

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for San Diego State, Tariq Thompson had 25 tackles which puts him in the 80.23 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 2 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 90.05 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Tariq Thompson as a ball hawker was able to pick off 1 passes last season, which puts him in the 86.34 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Darren Hall CB 6-0 190

Considered the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for San Diego State, Darren Hall had 15 tackles which puts him in the 73.43 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 1 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 80.66 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Darren Hall as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 38.84 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

The Nevada Roster

The Players to Watch for Nevada

Carson Strong QB 6-4 215

This season, Carson Strong has put up 1517 yards and 12 touchdowns. He has thrown 1 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 168.7thus far this season. Carson Strong has thrown 1 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Carson Strong has -88.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 0.34 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 15.0 times this season, which puts him in the 53.92 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 0.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Toa Taua RB 5-9 210

This season, Toa Taua has 255 rushing yards on 39 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 2 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Toa Taua picked up 59 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 12 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Romeo Doubs WR 6-2 200

This season, Romeo Doubs picked up 637 yards. He caught the ball 30 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 8 receiving touchdowns this season.

Dom Peterson DT 6-0 285

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Nevada, Dom Peterson has 20 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 4 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 91.99 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 2 times this season, which put him in the 92.23 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Sam Hammond DE 6-5 265

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Nevada, Sam Hammond has 14 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 4 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 86.99 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 2 times this season, which put him in the 84.25 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Tyson Williams DB 5-9 200

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Nevada, Tyson Williams had 27 tackles which puts him in the 83.98 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 34.12 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Tyson Williams as a ball hawker was able to pick off 1 passes last season, which puts him in the 86.34 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

San Diego State vs. Nevada Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: San Diego State 19 Nevada 15

Spread Pick: San Diego State -1 -105 SBR Sportsbook
Moneyline Pick: San Diego State -110 SBR Sportsbook
Total Pick: Under 47 -110 JazzSports