College Football Picks, Predictions, and Previews: The Way It Oughtta Be

SMU vs. Tulsa 11/14/2020 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

The SMU visits Tulsa on 11/14/2020 at 7:00PM.

SMU and Tulsa face off in an important game for both teams as every game in this shortened season with limited or no fans in attendance means more. SMU has a record of 7-1 this season. Tulsa is 3-1 this season. Both have players to meet and know.

SMU Team Defense Preview

SMU has had 92 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 5.32 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive opponents run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. SMU has a generally average defense. Nothing too special about it, but they are capable of rising up when needed. SMU opponents pass the football 47.65% of the time.Opponents typically have some form of run/pass balance against them.

SMU is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to create negative yardage plays on the ground. Opponent rushing yards attributed to their offensive line this season comes out to 3.12 yards per carry. This defense lets offensive lines have too much control over them on the ground, too much push from the opposing offensive line. This is also a team that is allowing running backs and quarterbacks to get to the second-level in an average fashion. They are capable of giving up a long run, which is really demoralizing when the opposing team has the ball deep in their own territory.

This Defense has had average success disrupting the flow of the opposing offense.. Getting more specific, this front seven is a cause of a lot of headaches for offenses. They may be good enough to cause trouble in pass rush with just four rushers!SMU has shown themselves to be better at stopping the pass than the run this season.

SMU Team Offense Preview

SMU has had 90 drives in non-garbage time minutes and they average 5.96 plays per drive. SMU runs a lot of plays per drive and this could wear an opposing defense down. SMU has shown a capability to be explosive on first and second down to avoid third downs and has converted well (relatively) on 3rd and 4th Down situations. SMU passes the football 53.73% of the time.SMU tends to pass more than other teams.

SMU is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to avoid negative yardage plays on the ground. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. SMU can take credit for 3.07 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average offensive line as far as their ability to set up the running game. This is a team that is rather above-average when it comes to gashing defenses. The threat of the run should force opposing to play more honest and assignment defensive football is a must. They feature a relatively average explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play, but it is not something to count on from them.

Defenses have had trouble making big, disruptive plays against SMU this season. There has been a relatively good job done by this Offensive Line to prevent opposing front sevens from causing problems consistently. SMU is a better passing team than running team this season.

Tulsa Team Defense Preview

Tulsa has had 53 total defensive drives this season and they yield 5.06 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, Tulsa is not a team that allows many plays per drive. This defense either gives up big plays quickly or induces a lot of three-and-outs, we shall find out more. Opponents face third and long situations a lot against this defense. This is a defense that forces opponents to commit penalties, have compromised offensive line play, and fail to convert on crunch possessions. Tulsa opponents pass the football 54.10% of the time.Tulsa tends to face teams that prefer to air it out or opponents want to air it out against them.

Tulsa opponents have struggled with running the ball and this defense has crushed the spirits of their opponents with zero or negative yard plays. 4th and Short is not a cake walk against this defense, maybe passing on 4th and Short or having some sort of RPO is the way to go here because if an Offensive Coordinator thinks that they can just line and run a Quarterback Sneak or hand it off to a tailback, they are mistaken. Opponent rushing yards attributed to their offensive line this season comes out to 2.28 yards per carry. Opponent offensive lines have been simply unable to support their running games against this defense. When it comes to getting to that second level, running backs are getting stopped. This defense does not allow themselves to be gashed. Opponents have shown a relatively average level of explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play against them.

Tulsa has made the turnover belt, chain, pads, lunch pail or whatever gimmick they use change hands a lot. This is a Defense that causes pure aggravation. Tulsa should have a sign ready for opponents near the Visitor Locker Room that says “Welcome to Hell”, this front seven is deep and they cause a lot of problems. Tulsa is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

Tulsa Team Offense Preview

Tulsa has had 53 total drives this season and they generate 4.75 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, Tulsa is not a team that runs many plays per drive. The offense is either prone to faltering and struggles to notch first downs or extremely explosive, we will need to find out a bit more to get answers. Tulsa is an average offense when it comes to staying ahead of the chains, getting into 3rd and Short scenarios, and converting on 3rd and 4th Down. Tulsa passes the football 47.22% of the time.Relatively speaking, this is a team that favors run/pass balance.

Tulsa is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to avoid negative yardage plays on the ground. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 2.95 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average offensive line as far as their ability to set up the running game. This is also a team that is getting to the second-level in an average fashion. Offensive line and running backs are average in this regard. They feature a relatively average explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play, but it is not something to count on from them.

Defenses have had average success disrupting the flow of the Tulsa Offense. Front sevens are causing an average amount of trouble for the Offense. Tulsa has shown themselves to be a better running team than passing team this season.

The SMU Roster

The Players to Watch for SMU

Shane Buechele QB 6-1 207

This season, Shane Buechele has put up 2581 yards and 20 touchdowns. He has thrown 3 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 164.6thus far this season. Shane Buechele has thrown 3 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Shane Buechele has 87.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 79.36 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 44.0 times this season, which puts him in the 85.77 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 1.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Ulysses Bentley IV RB 5-10 184

This season, Ulysses Bentley IV has 774 rushing yards on 132 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 10 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Ulysses Bentley IV picked up 128 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 16 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Rashee Rice WR 6-1 189

This season, Rashee Rice picked up 580 yards. He caught the ball 39 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 5 receiving touchdowns this season.

Elijah Chatman DT 6-0 272

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for SMU, Elijah Chatman has 19 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 7 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 99.75 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 3 times this season, which put him in the 97.99 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Nelson Paul DE 6-1 220

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for SMU, Nelson Paul has 16 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 4 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 89.2 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 3 times this season, which put him in the 93.88 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Chace Cromartie S 6-0 180

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for SMU, Chace Cromartie had 36 tackles which puts him in the 93.99 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 3 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 96.39 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Chace Cromartie as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 40.1 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Ar’mani Johnson CB 5-11 177

Considered the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for SMU, Ar’mani Johnson had 25 tackles which puts him in the 94.75 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 1 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 81.69 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Ar’mani Johnson as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 38.98 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

The Tulsa Roster

The Players to Watch for Tulsa

Zach Smith QB 6-3 227

This season, Zach Smith has put up 925 yards and 7 touchdowns. He has thrown 5 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 136.3thus far this season. Zach Smith has thrown 5 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Zach Smith has -13.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 9.43 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 14.0 times this season, which puts him in the 56.41 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 0.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Deneric Prince RB 6-1 214

This season, Deneric Prince has 279 rushing yards on 46 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 2 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Deneric Prince picked up 11 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 1 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Keylon Stokes WR 6-0 194

This season, Keylon Stokes picked up 306 yards. He caught the ball 20 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 2 receiving touchdowns this season.

Jaxon Player DL 6-0 290

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Tulsa, Jaxon Player has 12 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 2 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 71.42 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 0 times this season, which put him in the 32.91 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Kendarin Ray S 6-4 200

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Tulsa, Kendarin Ray had 30 tackles which puts him in the 89.9 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 1 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 77.36 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Kendarin Ray as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 40.1 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Allie Green IV CB 6-3 206

Considered the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Tulsa, Allie Green IV had 15 tackles which puts him in the 75.25 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 1 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 81.69 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Allie Green IV as a ball hawker was able to pick off 1 passes last season, which puts him in the 85.08 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

SMU vs. Tulsa Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: SMU 32 Tulsa 26

Spread Pick: SMU +2.5 -101 matchbook
Moneyline Pick: SMU +105 Mybookie.ag
Total Pick: Under 65 -109 Pinnacle Sports