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South Alabama vs. Arkansas State 11/28/2020 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

The South Alabama visits Arkansas State on 11/28/2020 at 3:00PM.

South Alabama and Arkansas State face off in an important game for both teams as every game in this shortened season with limited or no fans in attendance means more. South Alabama has a record of 3-6 this season. Arkansas State is 3-6 this season. Both have players to meet and know.

South Alabama Team Defense Preview

South Alabama has had 100 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 5.55 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive opponents run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. South Alabama has a generally average defense. Nothing too special about it, but they are capable of rising up when needed. Passing plays make up 44.68% of their opponents’ play calls.Their opponents favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

South Alabama is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to create negative yardage plays on the ground. How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? South Alabama can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 2.82 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average defense when it comes to how offensive lines control or fail to control them on the ground. When it comes to getting to that second level, running backs are getting stopped. This defense does not allow themselves to be gashed. They are capable of giving up a long run, which is really demoralizing when the opposing team has the ball deep in their own territory.

This is not a disruptive Defense and they get pushed over way too easily. Perhaps they are too vanilla with playcalling. This front seven is simply unable to make an impact, something must change or else the problems will repeat. South Alabama is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

South Alabama Team Offense Preview

South Alabama has had 99 drives in non-garbage time minutes and they average 5.96 plays per drive. When you are among the best at plays per drive, you are certainly a team that aims to wear down the opposition with a high play count or with long, physical grinding drives that eat up a lot of clock. We need to find out more here when it comes to South Alabama. Struggles to get ahead of the chains and convert on third and fourth down are common, the offense can stagnate. Passing plays make up 50.85% of their play calls.Relatively speaking, this is a team that favors run/pass balance.

South Alabama struggles with running the ball, getting zero or negative yard plays is disspiriting and the offensive line is not effectively making a good push. Poor playcalling, pre-snap adjustments or post-snap reads may be responsible and this could fall on the Quarterback, Offensive Coordinator, and Head Coach. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. South Alabama can take credit for 2.52 yards per carry. So what does this mean? It means that the offensive line has been incredibly disappointing in their contribution to the ground game. When it comes to getting to that second level where linebackers have not crashed down on the line of scrimmage, they are getting stopped with ease. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to bust out big rushing plays.

Defenses have been able to impose their will on the South Alabama Offense this season. Front sevens of opposing defenses are causing a lot of problems. South Alabama has shown themselves to be a better running team than passing team this season.

Arkansas State Team Defense Preview

Arkansas State has had 115 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 5.53 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive opponents run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Arkansas State has a generally average defense. Nothing too special about it, but they are capable of rising up when needed. Passing plays make up 50.47% of their opponents’ play calls.Opponents typically have some form of run/pass balance against them.

Arkansas State opponents have struggled with running the ball and this defense has crushed the spirits of their opponents with zero or negative yard plays. 4th and Short is not a cake walk against this defense, maybe passing on 4th and Short or having some sort of RPO is the way to go here because if an Offensive Coordinator thinks that they can just line and run a Quarterback Sneak or hand it off to a tailback, they are mistaken. Opponent rushing yards attributed to their offensive line this season comes out to 2.56 yards per carry. Opponent offensive lines have been simply unable to support their running games against this defense. This is also a team that is allowing running backs and quarterbacks to get to the second-level in an average fashion. They are capable of giving up a long run, which is really demoralizing when the opposing team has the ball deep in their own territory.

This Defense has had average success disrupting the flow of the opposing offense.. Getting more granual into the front seven and their ability to cause trouble, they are just average in this regard. Arkansas State is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

Arkansas State Team Offense Preview

Arkansas State has had 114 total drives this season and they generate 5.82 plays per drive. Arkansas State runs a lot of plays per drive and this could wear an opposing defense down. Arkansas State is an average offense when it comes to staying ahead of the chains, getting into 3rd and Short scenarios, and converting on 3rd and 4th Down. Arkansas State passes the football 59.34% of the time.This is an Air Raid Offense team, they are going to pass the ball a lot and running plays are only used to keep opponents honest.

Arkansas State is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to avoid negative yardage plays on the ground. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 2.87 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average offensive line as far as their ability to set up the running game. This is also a team that is getting to the second-level in an average fashion. Offensive line and running backs are average in this regard. They feature a relatively average explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play, but it is not something to count on from them.

Defenses have had average success disrupting the flow of the Arkansas State Offense. There has been a relatively good job done by this Offensive Line to prevent opposing front sevens from causing problems consistently. Arkansas State is a better passing team than running team this season.

The South Alabama Roster

The Players to Watch for South Alabama

Desmond Trotter QB 6-3 200

This season, Desmond Trotter has put up 1531 yards and 9 touchdowns. He has thrown 3 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 142.1thus far this season. Desmond Trotter has thrown 3 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Desmond Trotter has 40.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 62.3 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 68.0 times this season, which puts him in the 91.48 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 1.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Carlos Davis RB 5-10 205

This season, Carlos Davis has 642 rushing yards on 148 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 3 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Carlos Davis picked up 86 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 10 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Jalen Tolbert WR 6-3 195

This season, Jalen Tolbert picked up 741 yards. He caught the ball 49 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 5 receiving touchdowns this season.

Jeremiah Littles DL 6-2 290

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for South Alabama, Jeremiah Littles has 22 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 3 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 80.1 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 2 times this season, which put him in the 83.9 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Keith Gallmon S 5-9 205.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for South Alabama, Keith Gallmon had 70 tackles which puts him in the 99.33 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 1 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 75.36 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Keith Gallmon as a ball hawker was able to pick off 1 passes last season, which puts him in the 85.62 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Darrell Luter Jr. CB 6-0 175

Considered the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for South Alabama, Darrell Luter Jr. had 27 tackles which puts him in the 92.66 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 35.17 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Darrell Luter Jr. as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 38.07 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

The Arkansas State Roster

The Players to Watch for Arkansas State

Layne Hatcher QB 6-0 210

This season, Layne Hatcher has put up 1591 yards and 14 touchdowns. He has thrown 2 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 164.4thus far this season. Layne Hatcher has thrown 2 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Layne Hatcher has -5.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 18.69 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 32.0 times this season, which puts him in the 73.77 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 0.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Jamal Jones RB 5-9 193

This season, Jamal Jones has 452 rushing yards on 99 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 3 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Jamal Jones picked up 66 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 14 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Jonathan Adams Jr. WR 6-3 220

This season, Jonathan Adams Jr. picked up 973 yards. He caught the ball 70 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 10 receiving touchdowns this season.

Forrest Merrill DL 6-1 338

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Arkansas State, Forrest Merrill has 32 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 4 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 85.32 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 0 times this season, which put him in the 31.47 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 1 fumbles this season.

Elery Alexander DB 6-0 190.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Arkansas State, Elery Alexander had 43 tackles which puts him in the 94.89 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 4 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 97.67 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Elery Alexander as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 39.16 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Samy Johnson CB 5-10 175

Considered the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Arkansas State, Samy Johnson had 28 tackles which puts him in the 94.04 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 35.17 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Samy Johnson as a ball hawker was able to pick off 2 passes last season, which puts him in the 94.5 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

South Alabama vs. Arkansas State Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: South Alabama 28 Arkansas State 35

Spread Pick: No Action
Moneyline Pick: Arkansas State -270 5Dimes
Total Pick: Under 64.5 -110 bet365