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Southern Miss vs. Western Kentucky 11/14/2020 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

The Southern Miss visits Western Kentucky on 11/14/2020 at 3:30PM.

Southern Miss and Western Kentucky face off in an important game for both teams as every game in this shortened season with limited or no fans in attendance means more. Southern Miss has a record of 2-5 this season. Western Kentucky is 2-6 this season. Both have players to meet and know.

Southern Miss Team Defense Preview

Southern Miss has had 78 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 5.72 plays per drive. Southern Miss lets opponents run a lot of plays per drive and in the Fourth Quarter, this team could be gassed. Southern Miss has shown an inability to stop defenses from converting on 4th Downs and they let opponents get into manageable 3rd Down situations where an RPO may be especially deadly. Passing plays make up 47.76% of their opponents’ play calls.Opponents typically have some form of run/pass balance against them.

Defenses want to stop offenses from getting into a 3rd Down where the options are plentiful. Unfortunately, this defense is too porous to limit those choices. How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? Southern Miss can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 3.1 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average defense when it comes to how offensive lines control or fail to control them on the ground. When it comes to getting to that second level, running backs are getting stopped. This defense does not allow themselves to be gashed. Opponents have shown a relatively average level of explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play against them.

This is not a disruptive Defense and they get pushed over way too easily. Perhaps they are too vanilla with playcalling. This front seven is simply unable to make an impact, something must change or else the problems will repeat. Southern Miss is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

Southern Miss Team Offense Preview

Southern Miss has had 78 total drives this season and they generate 5.42 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive they run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Southern Miss is an average offense when it comes to staying ahead of the chains, getting into 3rd and Short scenarios, and converting on 3rd and 4th Down. Southern Miss passes the football 47.52% of the time.Relatively speaking, this is a team that favors run/pass balance.

Southern Miss is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to avoid negative yardage plays on the ground. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. Southern Miss can take credit for 2.86 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average offensive line as far as their ability to set up the running game. This is also a team that is getting to the second-level in an average fashion. Offensive line and running backs are average in this regard. They feature a relatively average explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play, but it is not something to count on from them.

Defenses have had average success disrupting the flow of the Southern Miss Offense. Front sevens are causing an average amount of trouble for the Offense. Southern Miss has shown themselves to be a better running team than passing team this season.

Western Kentucky Team Defense Preview

Western Kentucky has had 78 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 6.05 plays per drive. The struggle is real. Western Kentucky cannot find a way to get opposing offenses off the field. Three and outs are not common and if the team needs a three-and-out late in a game to get the ball back, it is just not happening.Opponents face third and long situations a lot against this defense. This is a defense that forces opponents to commit penalties, have compromised offensive line play, and fail to convert on crunch possessions. Passing plays make up 44.70% of their opponents’ play calls.Their opponents favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

Defenses want to stop offenses from getting into a 3rd Down where the options are plentiful. Unfortunately, this defense is too porous to limit those choices. Opponent rushing yards attributed to their offensive line this season comes out to 2.96 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average defense when it comes to how offensive lines control or fail to control them on the ground. This is also a team that is allowing running backs and quarterbacks to get to the second-level in an average fashion. Opponents have shown a relatively average level of explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play against them.

This Defense has had average success disrupting the flow of the opposing offense.. This front seven is simply unable to make an impact, something must change or else the problems will repeat. Western Kentucky has shown themselves to be better at stopping the pass than the run this season.

Western Kentucky Team Offense Preview

Western Kentucky has had 79 total drives this season and they generate 5.08 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, Western Kentucky is not a team that runs many plays per drive. The offense is either prone to faltering and struggles to notch first downs or extremely explosive, we will need to find out a bit more to get answers. Struggles to get ahead of the chains and convert on third and fourth down are common, the offense can stagnate. Western Kentucky passes the football 53.87% of the time.Western Kentucky tends to pass more than other teams.

Western Kentucky struggles with running the ball, getting zero or negative yard plays is disspiriting and the offensive line is not effectively making a good push. Poor playcalling, pre-snap adjustments or post-snap reads may be responsible and this could fall on the Quarterback, Offensive Coordinator, and Head Coach. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 2.55 yards per carry. So what does this mean? It means that the offensive line has been incredibly disappointing in their contribution to the ground game. This is also a team that is getting to the second-level in an average fashion. Offensive line and running backs are average in this regard. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to bust out big rushing plays.

Defenses have had average success disrupting the flow of the Western Kentucky Offense. Front sevens are causing an average amount of trouble for the Offense. Western Kentucky has shown themselves to be a better running team than passing team this season.

The Southern Miss Roster

The Players to Watch for Southern Miss

Jack Abraham QB 6-0 209

This season, Jack Abraham has put up 1224 yards and 7 touchdowns. He has thrown 4 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 144.2thus far this season. Jack Abraham has thrown 4 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Jack Abraham has 26.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 55.69 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 29.0 times this season, which puts him in the 75.98 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 0.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Frank Gore Jr. RB 5-8 165

This season, Frank Gore Jr. has 461 rushing yards on 85 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 1 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Frank Gore Jr. picked up 34 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 6 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Jason Brownlee WR 6-3 195

This season, Jason Brownlee picked up 474 yards. He caught the ball 29 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 4 receiving touchdowns this season.

Terence Cherry DL 6-2 263

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Southern Miss, Terence Cherry has 22 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 2 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 71.42 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 2 times this season, which put him in the 85.91 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Malik Shorts DB 6-0 192

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Southern Miss, Malik Shorts had 53 tackles which puts him in the 99.13 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 2 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 90.67 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Malik Shorts as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 40.1 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

The Western Kentucky Roster

The Players to Watch for Western Kentucky

Tyrrell Pigrome QB 5-10 210

This season, Tyrrell Pigrome has put up 913 yards and 8 touchdowns. He has thrown 0 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 113.2thus far this season. Tyrrell Pigrome has thrown 0 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Tyrrell Pigrome has 233.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 92.88 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 64.0 times this season, which puts him in the 93.24 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 0.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Gaej Walker RB 6-0 195

This season, Gaej Walker has 352 rushing yards on 88 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 1 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Gaej Walker picked up 40 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 6 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Mitchell Tinsley WR 6-1 185

This season, Mitchell Tinsley picked up 274 yards. He caught the ball 30 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 3 receiving touchdowns this season.

Ricky Barber DT 6-3 295

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Western Kentucky, Ricky Barber has 28 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 2 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 78.14 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 1 times this season, which put him in the 80.15 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

DeAngelo Malone DE 6-4 230

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Western Kentucky, DeAngelo Malone has 54 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 8 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 98.33 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 4 times this season, which put him in the 96.71 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 1 fumbles this season.

Devon Key DB 6-1 210

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Western Kentucky, Devon Key had 61 tackles which puts him in the 99.86 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 34.52 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Devon Key as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 40.1 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Southern Miss vs. Western Kentucky Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: Southern Miss 25 Western Kentucky 29

Spread Pick: Southern Miss +8 -106 Pinnacle Sports
Moneyline Pick: Western Kentucky -265 JazzSports
Total Pick: Over 45.5 -109 Pinnacle Sports