College Football Picks, Predictions, and Previews: The Way It Oughtta Be

Stanford vs. Oregon State 12/12/2020 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

The Stanford visits Oregon State on 12/12/2020 at 10:30PM.

Stanford and Oregon State face off in an important game for both teams as every game in this shortened season with limited or no fans in attendance means more. Stanford has a record of 2-2 this season. Oregon State is 2-3 this season. Both have players to meet and know.

Stanford Team Defense Preview

Stanford has had 41 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 5.93 plays per drive. The struggle is real. Stanford cannot find a way to get opposing offenses off the field. Three and outs are not common and if the team needs a three-and-out late in a game to get the ball back, it is just not happening.Offensives should lick their lips given their inability to stop anyone, this is one of the worst defenses in the country. The Defensive Coordinator coaching search threads on Stanford message boards are flights of fantasy. Passing plays make up 41.56% of their opponents’ play calls.Their opponents favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

Defenses want to stop offenses from getting into a 3rd Down where the options are plentiful. Unfortunately, this defense is too porous to limit those choices. Opponent rushing yards attributed to their offensive line this season comes out to 3.34 yards per carry. Sorry to say this about this front seven, but the best way to make an average offensive line look good is for them to face this horrid front seven. Running backs should look forward to this porous defense filled with poor tacklers who take terrible angles. They are capable of giving up a long run, which is really demoralizing when the opposing team has the ball deep in their own territory.

This is not a disruptive Defense and they get pushed over way too easily. Perhaps they are too vanilla with playcalling. This front seven is simply unable to make an impact, something must change or else the problems will repeat. Stanford has shown themselves to be better at stopping the pass than the run this season.

Stanford Team Offense Preview

Stanford has had 42 total drives this season and they generate 6.05 plays per drive. When you are among the best at plays per drive, you are certainly a team that aims to wear down the opposition with a high play count or with long, physical grinding drives that eat up a lot of clock. We need to find out more here when it comes to Stanford. Stanford has shown a capability to be explosive on first and second down to avoid third downs and has converted well (relatively) on 3rd and 4th Down situations. Passing plays make up 56.30% of their play calls.This is an Air Raid Offense team, they are going to pass the ball a lot and running plays are only used to keep opponents honest.

Move the pile forward, falling forward, making progress, ensuring north-south running, smart Quarterback reads, well-adjusted alignments to ensure leverage, and an offensive line that is getting a great push forward are cornerstones of this offense. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. Stanford can take credit for 3.28 yards per carry. This is an elite offensive line when it comes to generating a push for the running game. They know how to create creases for running backs to break loose. Playing 7 in a box may not be enough for opposing defenses, this is a great O-Line. When it comes to getting to that second level where linebackers have not crashed down on the line of scrimmage, they are getting stopped with ease. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to bust out big rushing plays.

Defenses have had trouble making big, disruptive plays against Stanford this season. Stanford is among the best in the country at keeping defensive front sevens at bay. Opposing defenses need their secondary players to step up and cause trouble in order for this Offense to be disrupted. Stanford is a better passing team than running team this season.

Oregon State Team Defense Preview

Oregon State has had 57 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 6.16 plays per drive. The struggle is real. Oregon State cannot find a way to get opposing offenses off the field. Three and outs are not common and if the team needs a three-and-out late in a game to get the ball back, it is just not happening.Offensives should lick their lips given their inability to stop anyone, this is one of the worst defenses in the country. The Defensive Coordinator coaching search threads on Oregon State message boards are flights of fantasy. Passing plays make up 45.87% of their opponents’ play calls.Their opponents favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

Oregon State is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to create negative yardage plays on the ground. Opponent rushing yards attributed to their offensive line this season comes out to 3.09 yards per carry. This defense lets offensive lines have too much control over them on the ground, too much push from the opposing offensive line. This is a team that is getting gashed too much for the tastes of their base. Linebackers are not stopping the bleeding well enough. They are capable of giving up a long run, which is really demoralizing when the opposing team has the ball deep in their own territory.

This is not a disruptive Defense and they get pushed over way too easily. Perhaps they are too vanilla with playcalling. This front seven is simply unable to make an impact, something must change or else the problems will repeat. Oregon State has shown themselves to be better at stopping the pass than the run this season.

Oregon State Team Offense Preview

Oregon State has had 57 drives in non-garbage time minutes and they average 5.82 plays per drive. Oregon State runs a lot of plays per drive and this could wear an opposing defense down. Oregon State has shown a capability to be explosive on first and second down to avoid third downs and has converted well (relatively) on 3rd and 4th Down situations. Passing plays make up 52.11% of their play calls.Oregon State tends to pass more than other teams.

Oregon State is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to avoid negative yardage plays on the ground. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 3.07 yards per carry. This offensive line may be underappreciated, even though the running backs get the attention. The Oregon State coaching staff really deserves credit for how they prepared this offensive line, but they could be a little bit better! This is a team that is rather above-average when it comes to gashing defenses. The threat of the run should force opposing to play more honest and assignment defensive football is a must. They have an explosive running game and they are capable of breaking big yardage runs on First and Second Down. This puts a lot of pressure on Linebackers and Safeties.

Defenses have had trouble making big, disruptive plays against Oregon State this season. There has been a relatively good job done by this Offensive Line to prevent opposing front sevens from causing problems consistently. Oregon State has shown themselves to be a better running team than passing team this season.

The Stanford Roster

The Players to Watch for Stanford

Davis Mills QB 6-4 225

This season, Davis Mills has put up 784 yards and 3 touchdowns. He has thrown 0 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 127.8thus far this season. Davis Mills has thrown 0 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Davis Mills has 28.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 53.4 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 14.0 times this season, which puts him in the 45.52 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 1.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Austin Jones RB 5-10 201

This season, Austin Jones has 332 rushing yards on 81 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 7 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Austin Jones picked up 104 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 15 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Michael Wilson WR 6-2 210

This season, Michael Wilson picked up 261 yards. He caught the ball 19 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.

Dalyn Wade-Perry DT 6-4 330

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Stanford, Dalyn Wade-Perry has 9 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 0 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 23.32 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 0 times this season, which put him in the 32.96 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Thomas Booker DE 6-4 310.0

The leading tackler among Defensive Ends for Stanford, Thomas Booker has 14 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 2 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 64.24 percentile among Defensive Ends. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 1 times this season, which put him in the 66.28 percentile among all Defensive Ends in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Malik Antoine S 5-11 197.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Stanford, Malik Antoine had 22 tackles which puts him in the 66.45 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 1 tackles for loss this season, which puts him in the 71.77 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 1 times this season. Malik Antoine as a ball hawker was able to pick off 1 passes this season, which puts him in the 83.84 percentile among returning secondary position players this season.

Kyu Blu Kelly CB 6-1 186

Considered the leading tackler among Cornerbacks for Stanford, Kyu Blu Kelly had 16 tackles which puts him in the 66.57 percentile among Corners. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss this season, which puts him in the 34.7 percentile among Corners. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 0 times this season. Kyu Blu Kelly as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes this season, which puts him in the 36.4 percentile among Corners this season.

The Oregon State Roster

The Players to Watch for Oregon State

Tristan Gebbia QB 6-2 201

This season, Tristan Gebbia has put up 824 yards and 3 touchdowns. He has thrown 3 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 118.7thus far this season. Tristan Gebbia has thrown 3 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Tristan Gebbia has -16.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 10.19 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 19.0 times this season, which puts him in the 53.4 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 2.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Jermar Jefferson RB 5-10 217

This season, Jermar Jefferson has 675 rushing yards on 91 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 7 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Jermar Jefferson picked up 60 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 8 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Trevon Bradford WR 6-0 182

This season, Trevon Bradford picked up 239 yards. He caught the ball 24 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.

Isaac Hodgins DL 6-0 265.0

The leading tackler among Defensive Ends for Oregon State, Isaac Hodgins has 18 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 0 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 20.24 percentile among Defensive Ends. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 0 times this season, which put him in the 29.35 percentile among all Defensive Ends in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Akili Arnold DB 5-11 187.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Oregon State, Akili Arnold had 23 tackles which puts him in the 68.37 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 1 tackles for loss this season, which puts him in the 71.77 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 0 times this season. Akili Arnold as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes this season, which puts him in the 37.97 percentile among returning secondary position players this season.

Stanford vs. Oregon State Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: Stanford 30 Oregon State 28

Spread Pick: Oregon State +3 -108 Pinnacle Sports
Moneyline Pick: Stanford -144 matchbook
Total Pick: Over 52 -110 Bookmaker