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Texas State vs. Georgia Southern 11/14/2020 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

The Texas State visits Georgia Southern on 11/14/2020 at 3:30PM.

Texas State and Georgia Southern face off in an important game for both teams as every game in this shortened season with limited or no fans in attendance means more. Texas State has a record of 1-8 this season. Georgia Southern is 5-2 this season. Both have players to meet and know.

Texas State Team Defense Preview

Texas State has had 111 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 5.85 plays per drive. Texas State lets opponents run a lot of plays per drive and in the Fourth Quarter, this team could be gassed. Texas State has shown an inability to stop defenses from converting on 4th Downs and they let opponents get into manageable 3rd Down situations where an RPO may be especially deadly. Texas State opponents pass the football 50.39% of the time.Opponents typically have some form of run/pass balance against them.

Texas State is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to create negative yardage plays on the ground. How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? Texas State can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 2.98 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average defense when it comes to how offensive lines control or fail to control them on the ground. This is also a team that is allowing running backs and quarterbacks to get to the second-level in an average fashion. Opponents have shown a relatively average level of explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play against them.

This is not a disruptive Defense and they get pushed over way too easily. Perhaps they are too vanilla with playcalling. This front seven is simply unable to make an impact, something must change or else the problems will repeat. Texas State is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

Texas State Team Offense Preview

Texas State has had 109 drives in non-garbage time minutes and they average 5.08 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, Texas State is not a team that runs many plays per drive. The offense is either prone to faltering and struggles to notch first downs or extremely explosive, we will need to find out a bit more to get answers. Struggles to get ahead of the chains and convert on third and fourth down are common, the offense can stagnate. Passing plays make up 52.71% of their play calls.Texas State tends to pass more than other teams.

Texas State struggles with running the ball, getting zero or negative yard plays is disspiriting and the offensive line is not effectively making a good push. Poor playcalling, pre-snap adjustments or post-snap reads may be responsible and this could fall on the Quarterback, Offensive Coordinator, and Head Coach. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 2.84 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average offensive line as far as their ability to set up the running game. This is a team that is rather above-average when it comes to gashing defenses. The threat of the run should force opposing to play more honest and assignment defensive football is a must. They feature a relatively average explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play, but it is not something to count on from them.

Defenses have been able to impose their will on the Texas State Offense this season. Front sevens of opposing defenses are causing a lot of problems. Texas State has shown themselves to be a better running team than passing team this season.

Georgia Southern Team Defense Preview

Georgia Southern has had 76 total defensive drives this season and they yield 5.21 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive opponents run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Opponents face third and long situations a lot against this defense. This is a defense that forces opponents to commit penalties, have compromised offensive line play, and fail to convert on crunch possessions. Georgia Southern opponents pass the football 58.59% of the time.They are a team that faces a lot of Air Raid Offenses.

Georgia Southern opponents have struggled with running the ball and this defense has crushed the spirits of their opponents with zero or negative yard plays. 4th and Short is not a cake walk against this defense, maybe passing on 4th and Short or having some sort of RPO is the way to go here because if an Offensive Coordinator thinks that they can just line and run a Quarterback Sneak or hand it off to a tailback, they are mistaken. Opponent rushing yards attributed to their offensive line this season comes out to 2.44 yards per carry. Opponent offensive lines have been simply unable to support their running games against this defense. This is a team that is getting gashed too much for the tastes of their base. Linebackers are not stopping the bleeding well enough. Opponents have shown a relatively average level of explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play against them.

Disruptive plays are a part of the fabric of this team’s defensive effort. Game changing plays that drive Offensive Coordinators and Quarterbacks crazy, they find ways to deliver. Getting more granual into the front seven and their ability to cause trouble, they are just average in this regard. Georgia Southern has shown themselves to be better at stopping the pass than the run this season.

Georgia Southern Team Offense Preview

Georgia Southern has had 73 drives in non-garbage time minutes and they average 5.52 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive they run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Georgia Southern has shown a capability to be explosive on first and second down to avoid third downs and has converted well (relatively) on 3rd and 4th Down situations. Passing plays make up 25.06% of their play calls.They favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

Move the pile forward, falling forward, making progress, ensuring north-south running, smart Quarterback reads, well-adjusted alignments to ensure leverage, and an offensive line that is getting a great push forward are cornerstones of this offense. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 3.27 yards per carry. This offensive line may be underappreciated, even though the running backs get the attention. The Georgia Southern coaching staff really deserves credit for how they prepared this offensive line, but they could be a little bit better! This is also a team that is getting to the second-level in an average fashion. Offensive line and running backs are average in this regard. They feature a relatively average explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play, but it is not something to count on from them.

Georgia Southern has bullied and controlled defenses this season, defenses have not been able to dictate what this offense is able to do to them. Opponents should consider a containment strategy. There has been a relatively good job done by this Offensive Line to prevent opposing front sevens from causing problems consistently. Georgia Southern is a better passing team than running team this season.

The Texas State Roster

The Players to Watch for Texas State

Brady McBride QB 6-0 204

This season, Brady McBride has put up 1125 yards and 9 touchdowns. He has thrown 7 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 113.2thus far this season. Brady McBride has thrown 7 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Brady McBride has 35.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 59.61 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 50.0 times this season, which puts him in the 89.68 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 0.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Brock Sturges RB 5-11 200

This season, Brock Sturges has 483 rushing yards on 97 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 5 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Brock Sturges picked up 101 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 10 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.

Marcell Barbee WR 6-2 192

This season, Marcell Barbee picked up 393 yards. He caught the ball 27 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 8 receiving touchdowns this season.

Nico Ezidore DL 6-2 290

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Texas State, Nico Ezidore has 52 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 9 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 99.02 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 2 times this season, which put him in the 85.91 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Brendon Luper S 6-0 185

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Texas State, Brendon Luper had 48 tackles which puts him in the 98.51 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 1 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 77.36 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Brendon Luper as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 40.1 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Jarron Morris CB 5-9 158

Considered the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Texas State, Jarron Morris had 45 tackles which puts him in the 99.32 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 3 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 98.31 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Jarron Morris as a ball hawker was able to pick off 3 passes last season, which puts him in the 98.98 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

The Georgia Southern Roster

The Players to Watch for Georgia Southern

Shai Werts QB 5-11 205

This season, Shai Werts has put up 739 yards and 5 touchdowns. He has thrown 5 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 129.8thus far this season. Shai Werts has thrown 5 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Shai Werts has 474.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 98.93 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 90.0 times this season, which puts him in the 99.29 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 3.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

J.D. King RB 5-11 220

This season, J.D. King has 625 rushing yards on 116 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 5 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, J.D. King picked up 14 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 3 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Malik Murray WR 6-0 180

This season, Malik Murray picked up 192 yards. He caught the ball 12 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.

C.J. Wright NT 6-0 290

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Georgia Southern, C.J. Wright has 14 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 2 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 78.14 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 0 times this season, which put him in the 35.43 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Justin Ellis DE 6-2 250

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Georgia Southern, Justin Ellis has 12 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 5 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 93.53 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 2 times this season, which put him in the 85.91 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Anthony Wilson S 5-10 190

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Georgia Southern, Anthony Wilson had 23 tackles which puts him in the 80.72 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 2 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 90.67 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Anthony Wilson as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 40.1 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Derrick Canteen CB 5-11 185

Considered the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Georgia Southern, Derrick Canteen had 27 tackles which puts him in the 96.27 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 37.12 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Derrick Canteen as a ball hawker was able to pick off 2 passes last season, which puts him in the 95.08 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Texas State vs. Georgia Southern Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: Texas State 24 Georgia Southern 28

Spread Pick: Texas State +10.5 -105 Pinnacle Sports
Moneyline Pick: Georgia Southern -357 BetMania
Total Pick: Over 48.5 -149 matchbook