College Football Picks, Predictions, and Previews: The Way It Oughtta Be

Toledo vs. Northern Illinois 12/5/2020 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

The Toledo visits Northern Illinois on 12/5/2020 at 12:00PM.

Toledo and Northern Illinois face off in an important game for both teams as every game in this shortened season with limited or no fans in attendance means more. Toledo has a record of 2-2 this season. Northern Illinois is 0-4 this season. Both have players to meet and know.

Toledo Team Defense Preview

Toledo has had 49 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 4.37 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, Toledo is not a team that allows many plays per drive. This defense either gives up big plays quickly or induces a lot of three-and-outs, we shall find out more. Toledo has a generally average defense. Nothing too special about it, but they are capable of rising up when needed. Toledo opponents pass the football 49.07% of the time.Opponents typically have some form of run/pass balance against them.

Toledo opponents have struggled with running the ball and this defense has crushed the spirits of their opponents with zero or negative yard plays. 4th and Short is not a cake walk against this defense, maybe passing on 4th and Short or having some sort of RPO is the way to go here because if an Offensive Coordinator thinks that they can just line and run a Quarterback Sneak or hand it off to a tailback, they are mistaken. Opponent rushing yards attributed to their offensive line this season comes out to 2.46 yards per carry. Opponent offensive lines have been simply unable to support their running games against this defense. When it comes to getting to that second level, running backs are getting stopped. This defense does not allow themselves to be gashed. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to give up big rushing plays.

Disruptive plays are a part of the fabric of this team’s defensive effort. Game changing plays that drive Offensive Coordinators and Quarterbacks crazy, they find ways to deliver. Getting more granual into the front seven and their ability to cause trouble, they are just average in this regard. Toledo is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

Toledo Team Offense Preview

Toledo has had 46 drives in non-garbage time minutes and they average 5.72 plays per drive. Toledo runs a lot of plays per drive and this could wear an opposing defense down. Toledo has shown a capability to be explosive on first and second down to avoid third downs and has converted well (relatively) on 3rd and 4th Down situations. Passing plays make up 53.61% of their play calls.Toledo tends to pass more than other teams.

Toledo struggles with running the ball, getting zero or negative yard plays is disspiriting and the offensive line is not effectively making a good push. Poor playcalling, pre-snap adjustments or post-snap reads may be responsible and this could fall on the Quarterback, Offensive Coordinator, and Head Coach. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. Toledo can take credit for 2.6 yards per carry. So what does this mean? It means that the offensive line has been incredibly disappointing in their contribution to the ground game. This is also a team that is getting to the second-level in an average fashion. Offensive line and running backs are average in this regard. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to bust out big rushing plays.

Defenses have been able to impose their will on the Toledo Offense this season. Front sevens of opposing defenses are causing a lot of problems. Toledo is a better passing team than running team this season.

Northern Illinois Team Defense Preview

Northern Illinois has had 47 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 4.57 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, Northern Illinois is not a team that allows many plays per drive. This defense either gives up big plays quickly or induces a lot of three-and-outs, we shall find out more. Northern Illinois has a generally average defense. Nothing too special about it, but they are capable of rising up when needed. Northern Illinois opponents pass the football 42.33% of the time.Their opponents favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

Defenses want to stop offenses from getting into a 3rd Down where the options are plentiful. Unfortunately, this defense is too porous to limit those choices. Opponent rushing yards attributed to their offensive line this season comes out to 2.93 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average defense when it comes to how offensive lines control or fail to control them on the ground. This is also a team that is allowing running backs and quarterbacks to get to the second-level in an average fashion. They are capable of giving up a long run, which is really demoralizing when the opposing team has the ball deep in their own territory.

This Defense has had average success disrupting the flow of the opposing offense.. This front seven is simply unable to make an impact, something must change or else the problems will repeat. Northern Illinois is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

Northern Illinois Team Offense Preview

Northern Illinois has had 50 total drives this season and they generate 4.88 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, Northern Illinois is not a team that runs many plays per drive. The offense is either prone to faltering and struggles to notch first downs or extremely explosive, we will need to find out a bit more to get answers. Struggles to get ahead of the chains and convert on third and fourth down are common, the offense can stagnate. Northern Illinois passes the football 53.69% of the time.Northern Illinois tends to pass more than other teams.

Northern Illinois struggles with running the ball, getting zero or negative yard plays is disspiriting and the offensive line is not effectively making a good push. Poor playcalling, pre-snap adjustments or post-snap reads may be responsible and this could fall on the Quarterback, Offensive Coordinator, and Head Coach. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 2.26 yards per carry. So what does this mean? It means that the offensive line has been incredibly disappointing in their contribution to the ground game. When it comes to getting to that second level where linebackers have not crashed down on the line of scrimmage, they are getting stopped with ease. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to bust out big rushing plays.

Defenses have been able to impose their will on the Northern Illinois Offense this season. Front sevens of opposing defenses are causing a lot of problems. Northern Illinois is a better passing team than running team this season.

The Toledo Roster

The Players to Watch for Toledo

Eli Peters QB 6-2 195

This season, Eli Peters has put up 1106 yards and 9 touchdowns. He has thrown 2 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 160.2thus far this season. Eli Peters has thrown 2 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Eli Peters has 53.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 64.13 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 25.0 times this season, which puts him in the 65.87 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 0.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Bryant Koback RB 6-0 205

This season, Bryant Koback has 334 rushing yards on 82 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 3 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Bryant Koback picked up 184 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 19 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.

Isaiah Winstead WR 6-3 210

This season, Isaiah Winstead picked up 283 yards. He caught the ball 14 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 2 receiving touchdowns this season.

David Hood DT 6-1 280

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Toledo, David Hood has 11 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 2 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 71.33 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 0 times this season, which put him in the 33.72 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Jamal Hines DE 6-3 250

The leading tackler among Defensive Ends for Toledo, Jamal Hines has 22 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 4 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 83.63 percentile among Defensive Ends. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 2 times this season, which put him in the 82.48 percentile among all Defensive Ends in College Football. He has forced 1 fumbles this season.

Tycen Anderson S 6-2 205.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Toledo, Tycen Anderson had 23 tackles which puts him in the 70.75 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss this season, which puts him in the 32.62 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 0 times this season. Tycen Anderson as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes this season, which puts him in the 38.31 percentile among returning secondary position players this season.

Justin Clark CB 5-11 180

Considered the leading tackler among Cornerbacks for Toledo, Justin Clark had 16 tackles which puts him in the 70.38 percentile among Corners. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss this season, which puts him in the 35.19 percentile among Corners. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 0 times this season. Justin Clark as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes this season, which puts him in the 37.54 percentile among Corners this season.

The Northern Illinois Roster

The Players to Watch for Northern Illinois

Ross Bowers QB 6-2 200

This season, Ross Bowers has put up 871 yards and 5 touchdowns. He has thrown 2 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 123.3thus far this season. Ross Bowers has thrown 2 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Ross Bowers has -37.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 4.76 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 15.0 times this season, which puts him in the 50.63 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 0.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Harrison Waylee RB 5-10 180

This season, Harrison Waylee has 220 rushing yards on 65 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 0 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Harrison Waylee picked up 31 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 4 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.

Tyrice Richie WR 6-0 193

This season, Tyrice Richie picked up 415 yards. He caught the ball 39 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 2 receiving touchdowns this season.

James Ester DT 6-2 294

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Northern Illinois, James Ester has 13 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 1 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 55.5 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 0 times this season, which put him in the 33.72 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Raishein Thomas DE 6-4 257

The leading tackler among Defensive Ends for Northern Illinois, Raishein Thomas has 14 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 0 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 21.41 percentile among Defensive Ends. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 0 times this season, which put him in the 30.46 percentile among all Defensive Ends in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Devin Lafayette S 6-2 191.0

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Northern Illinois, Devin Lafayette had 20 tackles which puts him in the 65.32 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 1 tackles for loss this season, which puts him in the 73.47 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 1 times this season. Devin Lafayette as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes this season, which puts him in the 38.31 percentile among returning secondary position players this season.

Jordan Gandy CB 5-10 175

Considered the leading tackler among Cornerbacks for Northern Illinois, Jordan Gandy had 25 tackles which puts him in the 88.71 percentile among Corners. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss this season, which puts him in the 35.19 percentile among Corners. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, this season he was able to take them down 0 times this season. Jordan Gandy as a ball hawker was able to pick off 1 passes this season, which puts him in the 82.99 percentile among Corners this season.

Toledo vs. Northern Illinois Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: Toledo 36 Northern Illinois 19

Spread Pick: Toledo -7.5 -110 Bookmaker
Moneyline Pick: Toledo -290 Bookmaker
Total Pick: Under 56 -116 Pinnacle Sports