College Football Picks, Predictions, and Previews: The Way It Oughtta Be

Toledo vs. Western Michigan 11/11/2020 College Football Picks, Prediction, and Preview

The Toledo visits Western Michigan on 11/11/2020 at 8:00PM.

Toledo and Western Michigan face off in an important game for both teams as every game in this shortened season with limited or no fans in attendance means more. Toledo has a record of 1-0 this season. Western Michigan is 1-0 this season. Both have players to meet and know.

Toledo Team Defense Preview

Toledo has had 12 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 3.75 plays per drive. Relatively speaking, Toledo is not a team that allows many plays per drive. This defense either gives up big plays quickly or induces a lot of three-and-outs, we shall find out more. Opponents face third and long situations a lot against this defense. This is a defense that forces opponents to commit penalties, have compromised offensive line play, and fail to convert on crunch possessions. Toledo opponents pass the football 48.89% of the time.Opponents typically have some form of run/pass balance against them.

Toledo is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to create negative yardage plays on the ground. How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? Toledo can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 2.91 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average defense when it comes to how offensive lines control or fail to control them on the ground. This is also a team that is allowing running backs and quarterbacks to get to the second-level in an average fashion. Opponents have shown a relatively average level of explosiveness in the running game, maybe there will be a breakout rushing play against them.

Toledo has made the turnover belt, chain, pads, lunch pail or whatever gimmick they use change hands a lot. This is a Defense that causes pure aggravation. Getting more granual into the front seven and their ability to cause trouble, they are just average in this regard. Toledo has shown themselves to be better at stopping the pass than the run this season.

Toledo Team Offense Preview

Toledo has had 11 total drives this season and they generate 5.73 plays per drive. Toledo runs a lot of plays per drive and this could wear an opposing defense down. Toledo is an average offense when it comes to staying ahead of the chains, getting into 3rd and Short scenarios, and converting on 3rd and 4th Down. Toledo passes the football 44.44% of the time.They favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

Toledo is not doing anything particularly special as far as their ability to avoid negative yardage plays on the ground. How effective is the offensive line given what we know about their ability to prevent negative yards on rushing plays? More than you think, thanks to the Adjusted Line Yards metric. Toledo can take credit for 3.24 yards per carry. This offensive line may be underappreciated, even though the running backs get the attention. The Toledo coaching staff really deserves credit for how they prepared this offensive line, but they could be a little bit better! The offensive line and running back corps deserve a lot of credit for gashing defenses with their running game like the way they have this season. The breakout rushing plays are simply not happening, it is a massive reach to expect this team to bust out big rushing plays.

Defenses have had average success disrupting the flow of the Toledo Offense. Front sevens are causing an average amount of trouble for the Offense. Toledo is a better passing team than running team this season.

Western Michigan Team Defense Preview

Western Michigan has had 7 defensive drives in non-garbage time minutes and they yield 5.57 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive opponents run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Western Michigan has shown an inability to stop defenses from converting on 4th Downs and they let opponents get into manageable 3rd Down situations where an RPO may be especially deadly. Passing plays make up 56.41% of their opponents’ play calls.They are a team that faces a lot of Air Raid Offenses.

Defenses want to stop offenses from getting into a 3rd Down where the options are plentiful. Unfortunately, this defense is too porous to limit those choices. How effective are opposing offensive lines given what we know about their ability to force negative yardage rushing plays? Western Michigan can take credit for holding the offensive line of their opponent to 2.9 yards per carry. Generally speaking, this is an average defense when it comes to how offensive lines control or fail to control them on the ground. When it comes to getting to that second level, running backs are getting stopped. This defense does not allow themselves to be gashed. Long breakout runs against this Defense are far too common. This is a very porous rushing defense that is incapable of preventing a situation where their safeties chase down a running back or quarterback.

This Defense has had average success disrupting the flow of the opposing offense.. Getting more specific, this front seven is a cause of a lot of headaches for offenses. They may be good enough to cause trouble in pass rush with just four rushers!Western Michigan is better at stopping the run than the pass this season.

Western Michigan Team Offense Preview

Western Michigan has had 6 drives in non-garbage time minutes and they average 5.67 plays per drive. There is not much to take away here when it comes to how many plays per drive they run, but they are a team that falls in the average window when it comes to plays per drive. Any defense is in for a challenge with Western Michigan, given their ability to accrue more than 5 yards on 1st Downs and their ability to convert on 3rd and 4th Downs. They put a lot of pressure on opposing defenses.Passing plays make up 35.29% of their play calls.They favor running the ball as opposed airing it out.

Move the pile forward, falling forward, making progress, ensuring north-south running, smart Quarterback reads, well-adjusted alignments to ensure leverage, and an offensive line that is getting a great push forward are cornerstones of this offense. Based on the Adjusted Line Yards metric, which measures the amount of credit that should be ascribed to the offensive line for a rushing play, they average 4.98 yards per carry. This is an elite offensive line when it comes to generating a push for the running game. They know how to create creases for running backs to break loose. Playing 7 in a box may not be enough for opposing defenses, this is a great O-Line. The offensive line and running back corps deserve a lot of credit for gashing defenses with their running game like the way they have this season. They are capable of busting out a long run, which is really good when the team has the ball in their own territory.

Western Michigan has bullied and controlled defenses this season, defenses have not been able to dictate what this offense is able to do to them. Opponents should consider a containment strategy. Western Michigan is among the best in the country at keeping defensive front sevens at bay. Opposing defenses need their secondary players to step up and cause trouble in order for this Offense to be disrupted. Western Michigan has shown themselves to be a better running team than passing team this season.

The Toledo Roster

The Players to Watch for Toledo

Eli Peters QB 6-2 195

This season, Eli Peters has put up 214 yards and 4 touchdowns. He has thrown 0 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 159.9thus far this season. Eli Peters has thrown 0 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Eli Peters has 67.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 73.74 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 6.0 times this season, which puts him in the 35.07 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 0.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

Shakif Seymour RB 6-0 215

This season, Shakif Seymour has 93 rushing yards on 13 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 1 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, Shakif Seymour picked up 4 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 1 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

Bryce Mitchell WR 6-3 207

This season, Bryce Mitchell picked up 58 yards. He caught the ball 3 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 1 receiving touchdowns this season.

Darius Alexander DT 6-4 305

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Toledo, Darius Alexander has 3 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 0 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 27.34 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 0 times this season, which put him in the 35.42 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Terrance Taylor DE 6-3 235

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Toledo, Terrance Taylor has 5 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 0 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 23.92 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 0 times this season, which put him in the 32.98 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Maxen Hook S 6-0 190

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Toledo, Maxen Hook had 3 tackles which puts him in the 24.88 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 34.71 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Maxen Hook as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 40.12 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Chris McDonald CB 5-10 185

Considered the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Toledo, Chris McDonald had 4 tackles which puts him in the 36.46 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 37.33 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Chris McDonald as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 38.89 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

The Western Michigan Roster

The Players to Watch for Western Michigan

Kaleb Eleby QB 6-1 215

This season, Kaleb Eleby has put up 262 yards and 3 touchdowns. He has thrown 0 interceptions. He has a QB Rating of 274.4thus far this season. Kaleb Eleby has thrown 0 interceptions this season.As a rusher, Kaleb Eleby has 6.0 rushing yards, which puts him in the 39.75 percentile among Quarterbacks. He ran the ball as opposed to throwing the ball 3.0 times this season, which puts him in the 23.38 percentile. Has he hit paydirt as a runner? He has 0.0 rushing touchdowns this season.

La’darius Jefferson RB 6-1 223

This season, La’darius Jefferson has 70 rushing yards on 9 carries. Was he able to get to the end zone on the ground? He has 1 rushing touchdowns.As a receiver in the backfield, La’darius Jefferson picked up 0 yards. He caught the ball as opposed to taking handoffs or catching laterals 0 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 0 receiving touchdowns this season.

D’Wayne Eskridge WR 5-9 190

This season, D’Wayne Eskridge picked up 114 yards. He caught the ball 3 times this season. Did he score often as a receiver? He had 2 receiving touchdowns this season.

Ralph Holley DT 6-2 285

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Western Michigan, Ralph Holley has 2 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 1 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 62.24 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 0 times this season, which put him in the 35.42 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

Ali Fayad DE 6-2 255

The leading tackler among Defensive Tackles for Western Michigan, Ali Fayad has 4 tackles this season. He was able to keep rushers back and penetrate the offensive line with 2 tackles for loss, which puts him in the 71.52 percentile among Defensive Tackles. When it came to rushing the Quarterback, he has been able to take them down 1 times this season, which put him in the 72.51 percentile among all Defensive Tackles in College Football. He has forced 0 fumbles this season.

A.J. Thomas S 6-3 210

He is the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Western Michigan, A.J. Thomas had 7 tackles which puts him in the 46.3 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 2 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 90.85 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. A.J. Thomas as a ball hawker was able to pick off 1 passes last season, which puts him in the 87.29 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Cailin Crawford CB 5-11 195

Considered the leading tackler among non-exclusive Defensive Backs (meaning he can play either Safety Position, Nickel Back, Star or even play as a Cornerback in coverage) for Western Michigan, Cailin Crawford had 3 tackles which puts him in the 28.99 percentile among returning non-exclusive Defensive Backs. He was able to keep rushers and receivers back on screens with 0 tackles for loss last season, which puts him in the 37.33 percentile among Secondary position players. When it came to blitzing the Quarterback, last season he was able to take them down 0 times last season. Cailin Crawford as a ball hawker was able to pick off 0 passes last season, which puts him in the 38.89 percentile among returning secondary position players last season.

Toledo vs. Western Michigan Prediction, Picks, and Odds


Prediction: Toledo 33 Western Michigan 35

Spread Pick: Toledo +3 -106 Pinnacle Sports
Moneyline Pick: Western Michigan -140 Will Hill
Total Pick: Over 58 -111 Pinnacle Sports